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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,795 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Putin promises any new recruits will be sent to the Finnish border. Where they will do absolutely nothing.

    Ye definitely won't be sent to Ukraine. Join now. Get your money. Save that Lada for grandpa. I repeat ye definitely will not be sent to Ukraine. Of course your platoon leaders have the final say. But join. No definitely won’t be sent to Ukraine to die. You'll have a peaceful time on the Finnish border. Ye seen our wagnerites throwing sledgehammers at the Finnish consulate. You'll be just scaring the Finnish on the border.

    I repeat definitely won’t be sent to Ukraine. Join and do your service now. Don't be thinking of revolution either. You're going for a handy time to the Finnish border. Definitely not Ukraine..



  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭Strand1970


    Genuine question, how long will this war last before it ends in some fashion. American weapon manufacturers have been advised to increase their production capacity for atleast 4 years. Sounds like this will grind on for a few years. It will be interesting if that timeline is anywhere near accurate will the ukraines abroad have settled into new life's and decide not to return. Remember alot of the educated middle class are abroad and the will find employment easy enough and better standard of living. Ukraine's population has fallen by 8-9 million since the 90's like alot of Eastern Europe so they will be anxious for this war not to grind to protect their population long term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It won't be dragging on for 4 more years, putin hasn't got the manpower or the equipment and weapons to keep this up all the while losing thousands of soldiers a month in Ukraine,the Ukrainans are equipped, trained and motivated, unlike the poor unfortunates being pressganged into fighting for Putin who have feck all equipment, training or motivation to fight to the death in Ukraine,

    Some believe they will pull off some miracle not seen since the days of William Wallace ,

    But that's not going to happen with the Ukrainans,

    Summer beers Crimea 2023 .

    .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,361 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Analysts said the at Russia would run out of ammunition in August, then September, then October...


    This could drag out for a while yet. Hopefully the Ukrainians will make a breakthrough and roll up the front line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They are using pretty much recently produced shells and missles which would suggest stocks are running low , even the mass missles attacks are slowing down,to a few a day ,they don't have an infinite supply of weapons,men and vehicles to keep fighting a war long term ,

    They have lost over 8000 vehicles and a significant number of all of their tanks,and aircraft fleets , while ukraine is increasing their numbers of vehicles, tanks and aircraft,to bigger than pre invasion figures,

    It's completely unheard of ,


    But yet some are holding out for a Russian victory for whatever reason



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I highlighted major towns where OSINT and Ukrainians used satellite photos to confirm Russian entrenchment. I obviously have no source for smaller villages, but I would be shocked if they didn't identify minor roads and not defend them either.

    As for manpower, there are 300k Russians who have been called up. I doubt manpower will be an issue.

    The final point you adressed is around equipment. I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near enough useful equipment for the type of war that is being fought here.

    Again, I make no prediction of who wins/loses, it's too early to say. The only thing I am certain of is nothing is fast, nor easy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Point out the pro Russian statements I have made, thanks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,391 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Nobody cares. They're going to lose anyway.

    This address by Zelenskyy to the United States Congress was worth staying up for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,391 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You haven't asked me, but I'll answer anyway. Ukraine will have Crimea back under its sovereign control by April 30th.

    I'm confident, because Russia is running quickly out of warfighting materials and even faster out of men interested in fighting for the fascist Putin and his cronies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,666 ✭✭✭charlie_says


    Peace summit?


    Did the diplomatic language change before Christmas?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Would you make that a wager?

    E20 to a Ukraine charity/military if you win.

    E20 to the Irish guide dog charity if I lose.

    I am more than happy to lose to either, but I would like to be proven correct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭dennis72


    PP is not taking bets on this war but you can get 2/1 on a reunification of Korean peninsula by 2023 end

    While you live in hope of a Russian revival judging by your posts its not going to happen, the losing side is advancing backwards and the winning is chasing them.

    A jealous vodka swilling putin looks on at Zelenskyy in the whitehouse ho ho ho the great strategist is losing he just won't accept it.

    NATO could finish this in 3 days

    I see this ending 2 months with a Russian collapse and or a quick negotiated retreat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No one is interested in a piece summit, as it's well known to be horde code for 'we get to keep this big piece here, while we lick our wounds and gear up for another go where will come back and attempt to take the remaining piece.'



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,476 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Even if the war ended tomorrow, I suspect various nations will still be increasing their stocks to the tune of several years' worth of manufacture. We're seeing influxes from around the world like Korea and Iran because they happen to have some excess reserves and no apparent immediate need for it. However, next time around, there may be more going on in multiple locations.

    I think what's really happening is a re-evaluation of what a nation's war reserves really need to be. Most countries (The Baltic States and Poland may be an exception) are -not- dipping into what they consider necessary for their own nation's requirements. Ukraine has been a beneficiary of years of un-needed production used simply to keep the production lines in existence, which created some surpluses. I suspect few nations are going to look at their munitions stocks of last year and think that they are an acceptable amount for going forward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Welcome! Karelia is lovely this time of the year. Not too sure about the Murmansk oblast.



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭dennis72


    So yes it's a new arms race to face down autocratic threats

    I read somewhere over the last couple of years Russia had been sabotaging Ukraine munitions to degrade it ability to have a long war, seem they didn't count on a strong resistance, unity of allies and ignoring its use of energy as a weapon.

    Look like santa is bringing some goodies from the US wish some in Europe would do the same.



  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭Strand1970


    Crimea will never go back to Ukraine, that would be a redline for Russia and a great bargaining chip Ukraine whenever the peace talks start. Unfortunately this war will drag on and that will change the outlook from both sides. From a selfish irish viewpoint I hope the ukraines stay in ireland as they are generally well educated and have a lot to offer, just like when the Polish came 20 years ago and they integrated well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    The US can't afford it though, they just choose to spend money on weapons than helping their own citizens.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    That's like saying Farage speaks for the Tories. 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,986 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    No, they can afford their military (surprising as that is). They spend/have spent a lot less than Russia on it proportionately.

    The US is just extremely wealthy. Issues with "helping their own citizens" are a political problem rather than one of limited resources available to the state.

    The what now?? These guys on Russian tv who I've been exposed to thanks partly to this thread are like court jesters and are mouths - they say the wrong thing and they know they could be in very serious trouble. So the bile they come out with is just what the regime wants them to spout. So don't get that comparison.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Red lines have a way of becoming grey lines when you're losing............

    And I hope that most, if not all our Ukrainian visitors will choose to go back to their country when this is over and help rebuild it into a prosperous state of their own choosing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    This anti-US, anti-EU block that's been festering on this thread these past few days, I just don't get it... This notion that Ukraine is receiving support for selfish, ulterior motives seems to forget the fact that Russia is not a Ukraine problem, but all our problem. Do people really think Russia in its current incarnation has any validity anymore ? Surely the blindfold is off now, and the Kremlin is revealed for what it is: a bunch of thugs and gangsters who favour power and wealth over any kind of fundamental decency. Trolls aside, how anyone can empathize with Russia after their conduct in the battlefield, and their systematic destruction of Ukraine is....astonishing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Being none of your predictions have worked out for you so far .....


    I'm always confident,

    Crimea summer 23



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,668 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    "As for manpower, there are 300k Russians who have been called up. I doubt manpower will be an issue."


    300,000 men does not equate to 300,000 soldiers, its a well known fact that in the heat of battle many conscripts will fire their gun high because they are not comfortable with the thought of killing another person.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Redline like strikes on Russia, strikes on Crimea, sinking Russia ships ,

    Yada yada yada,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,593 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    More like if someone on a major BBC show spoke for Whitehall ,

    And knew he's likely to fall out a window if he pisses his masters off ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,593 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I saw something on you tube about "the" modern factory in the UK churning out 155 shells, and it's theoretically capable of knocking out 4 or 5 hundred thousand shells a year,

    Obviously it doesn't do that now , itd have to move to 24/ 7 production , so probably quadroupling it's work force , and that'd take a lot of time ,

    But that works out at 80 to 100 shells a day ... That's their current theoretical max that'd take 6 months or a year to get to ...

    And the Ukrainians are using up to 4 or 5 thousand shells a day ..

    And have had Russian sabotage on their munitions industry for years now ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    One of the more interesting analysis pieces that I read basically said the West needed to stop worrying about frustating Russias goals, because Russias goals are just to take as much as they can, but to take away their capacity to achieve goals and keep them like that.

    We're going to have to get used to the idea of brining about the fall of the USSR mark 2 and not saving them this time, as tricky as that seems.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Pretty much everything I've said has come to pass.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,593 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    While also not allowing the Russian union and former Soviet states fall into utter destabilizing choas .. there's hundreds of millions of people living in the whole region , and a lot of legacy weaponry ( although that's being ground down in Ukraine )

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,801 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,668 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    So in your eyes every single Russian should be turned away? As for "kept under surveillance" sure why not just go the whole hog and place any Russian in Europe into some sort of camps where they can be watched.


    Any proof ordinary Russians are "as indoctrinated as by propaganda as islamics (sic) are"?


    You really do love to crank the hyperbole up to 11 don't you 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    A Russian civil war/breaking apart would be on a scale of multitude worse for the world than the horror story in Ukraine.


    We want the Reds defeated, their army's offensive capacity gone for a generation.


    The largest country in the world turning in to a Somali style ark of instability across 3000 miles is not the answer to this.


    Give the Ukrainian forces the means to kill every Russian soldier in Ukraine, work on having an internal coup against Putin. Insist that the price of Russia being let back in is restitution and remediation of and for its crimes.


    Limit their forces capabilities, cut off the mindset that drives this savagery, anyone who was KGB or Communist party of old to not be allowed in senior roles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,593 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    And if you're aware of that , you can be sure the Ukrainian high command are as well ... And definitely their top brass don't seem keen on throwing their troops forward for nothing,

    Also they've been telegraphing their southern front intentions for a while now ,

    Doesn't mean they will or won't go there , but it does tie up Russian troops and keep them on the defensive, the harder the winter gets the harder it is for either side to carry out complex operations.. again locally one side or the other may have an advantage ,

    the Russians are definitely training some of their recruits , presumably for offensive operations in spring summer, the recruits in the trenches won't have had that training ..

    The Ukrainians are probably likewise- they've 10,000 plus trained troops coming in by the month , but that's mainly basic training,

    I can't see Ukraine taking the Donbass quickly , it's been fortified for years now , but I think they'll retake the south , and if they can roll up the south, they may be able to rush the Crimea ..

    It's possible..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Great post, poor Russia is a victim of US Capitalist running dogs.


    Solidarity dude.👊



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Will the Republicans taking control of the house hurt the Ukrainian war effort? Seems the right in America or least the most vocal element of the right is against Ukraine




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,537 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    On the first point, just to be clear, you and Russia seem to think that the WW1 style fighting that we see in Donbas and which we have been seeing there for the last 8 and a half years is the norm for this war. It is not. The Western front in WW1 was about 500km with millions of men either side, the frontline in Ukraine is about 1200km with maybe 10-20% of the total troops. There are large concentrations of troops in Donbas and in Kherson, but not between.

    So Zaphorizhzhia is a large area with relative few troops compared to Donbas. This means that the Ukrainian troops dont have to get bogged down in WW1 style battles and can instead operate a highly mobile attack to cut them off.

    Re the 300k mobilised troops, they are not in Zaphorizhzhia. Which is why I said that they dont have the manpower there now. Which is why I Ukraine may well strike during the winter.

    On equipment, they have more than enough. They have proved very resourceful, are getting regular resupplies from the West, and they havent deployed the new supplies that they got from their main arms supplier (i.e. Retreating Russians) yet. You seem to ignore the article I posed about their use of improvised vehicles, which is fine. I hope the Russians also ignore or underestimate the use of these vehicles too.

    And I also repeat that I dont see the war ending any time soon. But saying there is nothing fast or easy is kinda undermined by recent events, namely the Russian defests at Kyiv and Kharkiv.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    I think what's most frustrating now is that Russia just doesn't know that's it well and truly beaten, it's like some knuckle-headed boxer who just isn't smart enough to stay down. But all the while it's still managing to inflict huge suffering as it's going down in flames. All the Kremlin's plans have failed, and Putin, the fool, has caught himself in a trap he can't get out of now with the annexations - he had an opportunity to get out of Ukraine - and have Margarita Simonyan sell it back to the Russian people that the special military operation succeeded in disabling Ukraine as a threat - but he's blown it. 

    I'm not so sure the war will drag on for years, as some, admittedly well-placed people are predicting. I follow an Estonian analyst on Twitter and I've come to trust his opinions and judgements, and he reckons Russia's domestic problems will really start to bite the regime in a matter of months, perhaps March, April...

    The Chinese are still outwardly supportive, but I must question their level of commitment - all the signs suggest that they will be swamped with Covid problems in the next few weeks, and there are currently bloody flashpoints at border points with India. So, President Xi will have his hands full...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Also include the South Koreans are sending something like 250,000 rounds of 155 artillery shells,they have fairly large stocks and the defense industry to produce more shells and other military equipment,

    So it's not like there will be a sudden drop of Ukrainan ammunition



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,476 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Not even a political problem in the terms of 'willingness to spend money', but it's one in terms of 'dealing with bureaucracy' and 'gaining efficiencies'. For example, US governments spend more per capita on healthcare and far more on education, than Ireland does. If they ever arsed themselves to fix the structural problems instead of using the much easier (and politically expedient) 'let's throw money at it' solution, the US would be doing far better than it is.

    But on topic, for better or worse, the US's position is 'The homeland can take care of itself. True US security, both military and economic, comes from the situation of things abroad' which has pretty much been US policy since the late 19th century. Which includes taking care of other countries even when they couldn't be arsed to do it right themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Like the retreat of Ukrainan forces a week or two later and they rolled into Kherson despite your predictions of WW1 trench warfare that would cost the Ukrainians dearly



  • Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭Bombaby1974


    If you've managed to irk Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump JR and some tw@ts from Breitbart in one day, you're on the right track in my book!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,681 ✭✭✭Field east


    This is a complex issue especially if there is a Russian embassy in situ. What does a Russian citizen as a refugee or under whatever status they are living under in Ireland and want to live in peace IS APPROACHED by a Russian staff member / undercover RU agent to DO SOMETHING for them and the Russian agent says in the next breath “ we know where your parents/aunts / uncles / brothers /sisters / grand mothers, etc live in Russia. What does the Russian who wants to live in peace in Ireland and clearly rejects everything Russian DO?

    and if they refuse to ‘help’ their own lives might be at risk. The embassy/agent could use them as an example of what can happen.

    so because of the above , I could not thrust EVEN ONE RUSSIAN. It’s an awful thing to have to say but IMHO it’s reality



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Only one??? 5 or 6 even would be more like it, I'd say 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    As soon as you mention the likes of internment here for Russian citizens, you see several posters getting agitated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    You didn't but that's what states do in times of crisis when there are potential enemies in their midst. We may not be there yet, but we may also assume that there are dangers lurking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    According to them (the Russians) they are making a military budget for the next 3 years. Which will have to be markedly increased if their forces are to show any improvement in the field. Gone will be the days of Families having to support their sons with protection gear, winter clothing etc. But the biggest impediment to this will be the innate Russian disease of corruption. Where that increased budget actually benefits the soldier on the front lines is something else. Then you have the actual budget itself where the cash will come from..when you consider Russia's dwindling income from its traditional oil / gas sales. Thats not to say that they will be starved of cash ( unfortunately) but it will mean a choice between supporting the Russian people or the military, and with Russia increasingly falling on hard economic times, that will call for some hard choices to be made. Three years is a very long time in a situation like this. Winter and Spring 2023 will tell the tale, I'd say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire




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