Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 12:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120021829#Comment_120021829

I talked about this just over a week ago.

I said Melitopol is a clear hinge for the Russian defence in the south, but that the Russians aren't completely stupid and have realised this. I even drew a silly map. You can see I highlighted a few locations of the strategic road intersections where it's known the Russians are entrenching for months now. Some will laugh and joke about the Russian trenches, but at no stage during this war have heavily entreched enemy positions proved easy for the opposing force.

This is not Kharkiv where Ukraine managed to break the single line of Russian defence and charge to Kupiansk with minimal resistance. There are multiple lines of defence here, there won't be an already shattered army defending it, and most importantly there will be no benefit of surprise. I don't think what is expected will be at all easy. I fear that what is expected might not even be possible. I especially worry that sending Ukrainian forces into an offensive in BMP1's and T-55's is not going to give them the best chance of success either.

Unfortunately, I can easily see us being here this time next year talking about the next wave of fighting.

Jinglejangle69 · 22-12-2022 12:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023899#Comment_120023899

How’s Bakhmut going?

Gatling · 22-12-2022 12:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023910#Comment_120023910

Still waiting for the Russians to turn up and the Ukrainans to start retreating 🤣🤣🤣

johnnyskeleton · 22-12-2022 12:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023899#Comment_120023899

You drew a map with entrenchments around a few key towns. The strategy would not be to take those towns, but to go around them. It is not necessary nor desirable to take these towns. Instead, they will cut these towns off from resupply.

You say the Russians arent completely stupid and have realised that the attack will be in the south and thats true. But their stupidity comes from the assumption that they will be happy to engage the Russian troops in towns in the same manner that they have engaged the Ukrainians holding positions in Donbas.

They simply dont have enough troops there now to hold the area, hence they want a ceasefire until they can move more of the mobilised troops in.

Ukraine wont charge head first into battle in old tanks. They will use technicals to cut off their supply lines and force a retreat, or a surrender, or a bith of both, from the garrisoned troops.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/ukrainians-turn-personal-vehicles-into-technicals-to-fight-russia-2022-9%3famp

If they dont surrender or retreat, Ukrainian troops can ignore them until they leave their positions.

Obviously with the usual caveats that who knows what the actual plans are etc, but that has been their preferred tactic to date and it works well for them. Russia either hasnt learned or cant effectively counter it, hence the retreat in Kherson city. Removing them from tge rest of Kherson and Crimea will obviously be much more difficult

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 12:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023910#Comment_120023910

For who?

machiavellianme · 22-12-2022 12:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023018#Comment_120023018

He will have many options; a window, a flight of stairs, a nearby tree, a cup of tea....

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 12:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023935#Comment_120023935

Yes, that is definitely it.

johnnyskeleton · 22-12-2022 12:56am

On us being here a year from now, that would not be ideal. The Russian budget is set with hogher military spending for the next 3 years. This may not be evidence in itself that they expect it to continue for 3 years, but it does demonstrate that they are planning for the potential of fighting for the next 3 years. It is not clear whether this increased spending will cover additional procurement of advanced weaponry or not as it is most likely just to cover resupply costs and salaries, death benefits etc.

American military support for Ukraine next year will be significantly more than this year. This year will be when more advanced systems are given to them, and it would be hoped that increased training, repair support etc woukd be given. However, its less certain what will happen into 2024. European nations will have to make some really difficult decisions before then.

However, even if all Western support dries up Ukraine will fight on. They have the numbers, they have the morale, they have the superior tactics and they have home advantage.

So long story short, it is very likely that there will still be some form of ongoing conflict this time next year in or aorund Ukraine. But the nature of the fighting will be very different.

Gatling · 22-12-2022 1:07am

The only victories were seeing from the orcs is who can run back to Moscow the fastest.......

Still surprised some still back the Russians I thought all of the hardcore putinbots had left the building

Say my name · 22-12-2022 1:10am

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1605582665893023745?t=dj9ZNGm29nqBKZcxDVYiAw&s=19

Putin promises any new recruits will be sent to the Finnish border. Where they will do absolutely nothing.

Ye definitely won't be sent to Ukraine. Join now. Get your money. Save that Lada for grandpa. I repeat ye definitely will not be sent to Ukraine. Of course your platoon leaders have the final say. But join. No definitely won’t be sent to Ukraine to die. You'll have a peaceful time on the Finnish border. Ye seen our wagnerites throwing sledgehammers at the Finnish consulate. You'll be just scaring the Finnish on the border.

I repeat definitely won’t be sent to Ukraine. Join and do your service now. Don't be thinking of revolution either. You're going for a handy time to the Finnish border. Definitely not Ukraine..

Strand1970 · 22-12-2022 1:11am

Genuine question, how long will this war last before it ends in some fashion. American weapon manufacturers have been advised to increase their production capacity for atleast 4 years. Sounds like this will grind on for a few years. It will be interesting if that timeline is anywhere near accurate will the ukraines abroad have settled into new life's and decide not to return. Remember alot of the educated middle class are abroad and the will find employment easy enough and better standard of living. Ukraine's population has fallen by 8-9 million since the 90's like alot of Eastern Europe so they will be anxious for this war not to grind to protect their population long term.

Gatling · 22-12-2022 1:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024011#Comment_120024011

It won't be dragging on for 4 more years, putin hasn't got the manpower or the equipment and weapons to keep this up all the while losing thousands of soldiers a month in Ukraine,the Ukrainans are equipped, trained and motivated, unlike the poor unfortunates being pressganged into fighting for Putin who have feck all equipment, training or motivation to fight to the death in Ukraine,

Some believe they will pull off some miracle not seen since the days of William Wallace ,

But that's not going to happen with the Ukrainans,

Summer beers Crimea 2023 .

.

Padre_Pio · 22-12-2022 1:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024041#Comment_120024041

Analysts said the at Russia would run out of ammunition in August, then September, then October...

This could drag out for a while yet. Hopefully the Ukrainians will make a breakthrough and roll up the front line.

Gatling · 22-12-2022 1:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024050#Comment_120024050

They are using pretty much recently produced shells and missles which would suggest stocks are running low , even the mass missles attacks are slowing down,to a few a day ,they don't have an infinite supply of weapons,men and vehicles to keep fighting a war long term ,

They have lost over 8000 vehicles and a significant number of all of their tanks,and aircraft fleets , while ukraine is increasing their numbers of vehicles, tanks and aircraft,to bigger than pre invasion figures,

It's completely unheard of ,

But yet some are holding out for a Russian victory for whatever reason

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 1:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023948#Comment_120023948

I highlighted major towns where OSINT and Ukrainians used satellite photos to confirm Russian entrenchment. I obviously have no source for smaller villages, but I would be shocked if they didn't identify minor roads and not defend them either.

As for manpower, there are 300k Russians who have been called up. I doubt manpower will be an issue.

The final point you adressed is around equipment. I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near enough useful equipment for the type of war that is being fought here.

Again, I make no prediction of who wins/loses, it's too early to say. The only thing I am certain of is nothing is fast, nor easy.

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 1:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024001#Comment_120024001

Point out the pro Russian statements I have made, thanks.

Larbre34 · 22-12-2022 1:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024084#Comment_120024084

Nobody cares. They're going to lose anyway.

This address by Zelenskyy to the United States Congress was worth staying up for.

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 1:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024087#Comment_120024087

someone does

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 1:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024070#Comment_120024070

ukraine in crimea by 1st june then?

confident?

Larbre34 · 22-12-2022 1:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024100#Comment_120024100

You haven't asked me, but I'll answer anyway. Ukraine will have Crimea back under its sovereign control by April 30th.

I'm confident, because Russia is running quickly out of warfighting materials and even faster out of men interested in fighting for the fascist Putin and his cronies.

charlie_says · 22-12-2022 1:56am

Peace summit?

Did the diplomatic language change before Christmas?

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2022 2:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024106#Comment_120024106

Would you make that a wager?

E20 to a Ukraine charity/military if you win.

E20 to the Irish guide dog charity if I lose.

I am more than happy to lose to either, but I would like to be proven correct.

dennis72 · 22-12-2022 3:31am

PP is not taking bets on this war but you can get 2/1 on a reunification of Korean peninsula by 2023 end

While you live in hope of a Russian revival judging by your posts its not going to happen, the losing side is advancing backwards and the winning is chasing them.

A jealous vodka swilling putin looks on at Zelenskyy in the whitehouse ho ho ho the great strategist is losing he just won't accept it.

NATO could finish this in 3 days

I see this ending 2 months with a Russian collapse and or a quick negotiated retreat.

cnocbui · 22-12-2022 4:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024109#Comment_120024109

No one is interested in a piece summit, as it's well known to be horde code for 'we get to keep this big piece here, while we lick our wounds and gear up for another go where will come back and attempt to take the remaining piece.'

Manic Moran · 22-12-2022 4:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024011#Comment_120024011

Even if the war ended tomorrow, I suspect various nations will still be increasing their stocks to the tune of several years' worth of manufacture. We're seeing influxes from around the world like Korea and Iran because they happen to have some excess reserves and no apparent immediate need for it. However, next time around, there may be more going on in multiple locations.

I think what's really happening is a re-evaluation of what a nation's war reserves really need to be. Most countries (The Baltic States and Poland may be an exception) are -not- dipping into what they consider necessary for their own nation's requirements. Ukraine has been a beneficiary of years of un-needed production used simply to keep the production lines in existence, which created some surpluses. I suspect few nations are going to look at their munitions stocks of last year and think that they are an acceptable amount for going forward.

Polar101 · 22-12-2022 7:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120024008#Comment_120024008

Welcome! Karelia is lovely this time of the year. Not too sure about the Murmansk oblast.

dennis72 · 22-12-2022 7:42am

So yes it's a new arms race to face down autocratic threats

I read somewhere over the last couple of years Russia had been sabotaging Ukraine munitions to degrade it ability to have a long war, seem they didn't count on a strong resistance, unity of allies and ignoring its use of energy as a weapon.

Look like santa is bringing some goodies from the US wish some in Europe would do the same.

Strand1970 · 22-12-2022 9:39am

Crimea will never go back to Ukraine, that would be a redline for Russia and a great bargaining chip Ukraine whenever the peace talks start. Unfortunately this war will drag on and that will change the outlook from both sides. From a selfish irish viewpoint I hope the ukraines stay in ireland as they are generally well educated and have a lot to offer, just like when the Polish came 20 years ago and they integrated well.

farmingquestion · 22-12-2022 9:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120022639#Comment_120022639

The US can't afford it though, they just choose to spend money on weapons than helping their own citizens.

farmingquestion · 22-12-2022 9:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120022932#Comment_120022932

That's like saying Farage speaks for the Tories. 🙄

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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