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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,975 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You haven't asked me, but I'll answer anyway. Ukraine will have Crimea back under its sovereign control by April 30th.

    I'm confident, because Russia is running quickly out of warfighting materials and even faster out of men interested in fighting for the fascist Putin and his cronies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,666 ✭✭✭charlie_says


    Peace summit?


    Did the diplomatic language change before Christmas?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,565 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Would you make that a wager?

    E20 to a Ukraine charity/military if you win.

    E20 to the Irish guide dog charity if I lose.

    I am more than happy to lose to either, but I would like to be proven correct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭dennis72


    PP is not taking bets on this war but you can get 2/1 on a reunification of Korean peninsula by 2023 end

    While you live in hope of a Russian revival judging by your posts its not going to happen, the losing side is advancing backwards and the winning is chasing them.

    A jealous vodka swilling putin looks on at Zelenskyy in the whitehouse ho ho ho the great strategist is losing he just won't accept it.

    NATO could finish this in 3 days

    I see this ending 2 months with a Russian collapse and or a quick negotiated retreat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No one is interested in a piece summit, as it's well known to be horde code for 'we get to keep this big piece here, while we lick our wounds and gear up for another go where will come back and attempt to take the remaining piece.'



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,316 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Even if the war ended tomorrow, I suspect various nations will still be increasing their stocks to the tune of several years' worth of manufacture. We're seeing influxes from around the world like Korea and Iran because they happen to have some excess reserves and no apparent immediate need for it. However, next time around, there may be more going on in multiple locations.

    I think what's really happening is a re-evaluation of what a nation's war reserves really need to be. Most countries (The Baltic States and Poland may be an exception) are -not- dipping into what they consider necessary for their own nation's requirements. Ukraine has been a beneficiary of years of un-needed production used simply to keep the production lines in existence, which created some surpluses. I suspect few nations are going to look at their munitions stocks of last year and think that they are an acceptable amount for going forward.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,838 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Welcome! Karelia is lovely this time of the year. Not too sure about the Murmansk oblast.



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭dennis72


    So yes it's a new arms race to face down autocratic threats

    I read somewhere over the last couple of years Russia had been sabotaging Ukraine munitions to degrade it ability to have a long war, seem they didn't count on a strong resistance, unity of allies and ignoring its use of energy as a weapon.

    Look like santa is bringing some goodies from the US wish some in Europe would do the same.



  • Registered Users Posts: 260 ✭✭Strand1970


    Crimea will never go back to Ukraine, that would be a redline for Russia and a great bargaining chip Ukraine whenever the peace talks start. Unfortunately this war will drag on and that will change the outlook from both sides. From a selfish irish viewpoint I hope the ukraines stay in ireland as they are generally well educated and have a lot to offer, just like when the Polish came 20 years ago and they integrated well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    The US can't afford it though, they just choose to spend money on weapons than helping their own citizens.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    That's like saying Farage speaks for the Tories. 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,878 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    No, they can afford their military (surprising as that is). They spend/have spent a lot less than Russia on it proportionately.

    The US is just extremely wealthy. Issues with "helping their own citizens" are a political problem rather than one of limited resources available to the state.

    The what now?? These guys on Russian tv who I've been exposed to thanks partly to this thread are like court jesters and are mouths - they say the wrong thing and they know they could be in very serious trouble. So the bile they come out with is just what the regime wants them to spout. So don't get that comparison.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,012 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Red lines have a way of becoming grey lines when you're losing............

    And I hope that most, if not all our Ukrainian visitors will choose to go back to their country when this is over and help rebuild it into a prosperous state of their own choosing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    This anti-US, anti-EU block that's been festering on this thread these past few days, I just don't get it... This notion that Ukraine is receiving support for selfish, ulterior motives seems to forget the fact that Russia is not a Ukraine problem, but all our problem. Do people really think Russia in its current incarnation has any validity anymore ? Surely the blindfold is off now, and the Kremlin is revealed for what it is: a bunch of thugs and gangsters who favour power and wealth over any kind of fundamental decency. Trolls aside, how anyone can empathize with Russia after their conduct in the battlefield, and their systematic destruction of Ukraine is....astonishing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Being none of your predictions have worked out for you so far .....


    I'm always confident,

    Crimea summer 23



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,520 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    "As for manpower, there are 300k Russians who have been called up. I doubt manpower will be an issue."


    300,000 men does not equate to 300,000 soldiers, its a well known fact that in the heat of battle many conscripts will fire their gun high because they are not comfortable with the thought of killing another person.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Redline like strikes on Russia, strikes on Crimea, sinking Russia ships ,

    Yada yada yada,



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,454 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    More like if someone on a major BBC show spoke for Whitehall ,

    And knew he's likely to fall out a window if he pisses his masters off ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,454 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I saw something on you tube about "the" modern factory in the UK churning out 155 shells, and it's theoretically capable of knocking out 4 or 5 hundred thousand shells a year,

    Obviously it doesn't do that now , itd have to move to 24/ 7 production , so probably quadroupling it's work force , and that'd take a lot of time ,

    But that works out at 80 to 100 shells a day ... That's their current theoretical max that'd take 6 months or a year to get to ...

    And the Ukrainians are using up to 4 or 5 thousand shells a day ..

    And have had Russian sabotage on their munitions industry for years now ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    One of the more interesting analysis pieces that I read basically said the West needed to stop worrying about frustating Russias goals, because Russias goals are just to take as much as they can, but to take away their capacity to achieve goals and keep them like that.

    We're going to have to get used to the idea of brining about the fall of the USSR mark 2 and not saving them this time, as tricky as that seems.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,565 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Pretty much everything I've said has come to pass.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,454 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    While also not allowing the Russian union and former Soviet states fall into utter destabilizing choas .. there's hundreds of millions of people living in the whole region , and a lot of legacy weaponry ( although that's being ground down in Ukraine )

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,565 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett




  • Registered Users Posts: 25,520 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    So in your eyes every single Russian should be turned away? As for "kept under surveillance" sure why not just go the whole hog and place any Russian in Europe into some sort of camps where they can be watched.


    Any proof ordinary Russians are "as indoctrinated as by propaganda as islamics (sic) are"?


    You really do love to crank the hyperbole up to 11 don't you 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,782 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    A Russian civil war/breaking apart would be on a scale of multitude worse for the world than the horror story in Ukraine.


    We want the Reds defeated, their army's offensive capacity gone for a generation.


    The largest country in the world turning in to a Somali style ark of instability across 3000 miles is not the answer to this.


    Give the Ukrainian forces the means to kill every Russian soldier in Ukraine, work on having an internal coup against Putin. Insist that the price of Russia being let back in is restitution and remediation of and for its crimes.


    Limit their forces capabilities, cut off the mindset that drives this savagery, anyone who was KGB or Communist party of old to not be allowed in senior roles.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,454 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    And if you're aware of that , you can be sure the Ukrainian high command are as well ... And definitely their top brass don't seem keen on throwing their troops forward for nothing,

    Also they've been telegraphing their southern front intentions for a while now ,

    Doesn't mean they will or won't go there , but it does tie up Russian troops and keep them on the defensive, the harder the winter gets the harder it is for either side to carry out complex operations.. again locally one side or the other may have an advantage ,

    the Russians are definitely training some of their recruits , presumably for offensive operations in spring summer, the recruits in the trenches won't have had that training ..

    The Ukrainians are probably likewise- they've 10,000 plus trained troops coming in by the month , but that's mainly basic training,

    I can't see Ukraine taking the Donbass quickly , it's been fortified for years now , but I think they'll retake the south , and if they can roll up the south, they may be able to rush the Crimea ..

    It's possible..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,782 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Great post, poor Russia is a victim of US Capitalist running dogs.


    Solidarity dude.👊



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,906 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Will the Republicans taking control of the house hurt the Ukrainian war effort? Seems the right in America or least the most vocal element of the right is against Ukraine




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    On the first point, just to be clear, you and Russia seem to think that the WW1 style fighting that we see in Donbas and which we have been seeing there for the last 8 and a half years is the norm for this war. It is not. The Western front in WW1 was about 500km with millions of men either side, the frontline in Ukraine is about 1200km with maybe 10-20% of the total troops. There are large concentrations of troops in Donbas and in Kherson, but not between.

    So Zaphorizhzhia is a large area with relative few troops compared to Donbas. This means that the Ukrainian troops dont have to get bogged down in WW1 style battles and can instead operate a highly mobile attack to cut them off.

    Re the 300k mobilised troops, they are not in Zaphorizhzhia. Which is why I said that they dont have the manpower there now. Which is why I Ukraine may well strike during the winter.

    On equipment, they have more than enough. They have proved very resourceful, are getting regular resupplies from the West, and they havent deployed the new supplies that they got from their main arms supplier (i.e. Retreating Russians) yet. You seem to ignore the article I posed about their use of improvised vehicles, which is fine. I hope the Russians also ignore or underestimate the use of these vehicles too.

    And I also repeat that I dont see the war ending any time soon. But saying there is nothing fast or easy is kinda undermined by recent events, namely the Russian defests at Kyiv and Kharkiv.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    I think what's most frustrating now is that Russia just doesn't know that's it well and truly beaten, it's like some knuckle-headed boxer who just isn't smart enough to stay down. But all the while it's still managing to inflict huge suffering as it's going down in flames. All the Kremlin's plans have failed, and Putin, the fool, has caught himself in a trap he can't get out of now with the annexations - he had an opportunity to get out of Ukraine - and have Margarita Simonyan sell it back to the Russian people that the special military operation succeeded in disabling Ukraine as a threat - but he's blown it. 

    I'm not so sure the war will drag on for years, as some, admittedly well-placed people are predicting. I follow an Estonian analyst on Twitter and I've come to trust his opinions and judgements, and he reckons Russia's domestic problems will really start to bite the regime in a matter of months, perhaps March, April...

    The Chinese are still outwardly supportive, but I must question their level of commitment - all the signs suggest that they will be swamped with Covid problems in the next few weeks, and there are currently bloody flashpoints at border points with India. So, President Xi will have his hands full...



This discussion has been closed.
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