Softening house market?

It's not relevant for the thread so I don't want to get into it. But just to let you know that your misunderstanding of a merit bar is well off. You can google it. If you want to know more start a thread over on the teaching/lecturing forum and I can explain it to you there if I see it.

Ive an apartment ready to sell. All advice I have got is to put it on the market in March. We were worried about some new legislation appearing to stop us selling it, but we have decided to wait til the end of Feb to put it one the market as most buyers take a break from looking for Nov, Dec and Jan and Feb. I know we did too when we were looking to buy. Its just not a good time to be trying to find somewhere to live. Supply is down, its dark when you get off work to go looking, everything just looks depressing anyway etc. Its just a miserable time to be traipsing around looking at houses.

That is not entirely true. The gov are both buying and renting properties so actively competing with anyone working and doing things the right way forcing prices up and also giving HAP along with the supports for FTBs this puts a floor under the market. This does not even bring into the equation the lending rules it was blatant this year at a time of higher interest rates and every other cost of living factor going up higher that they upped this to 4 times the salary. The question you should be asking is why now? The obvious answer is its to allow FTBs more debt to buy which is the wrong approach. If we withdrew all supports it would be political suicide but, both rent and property prices would drop.

The 4X lending rules is on the lower side of mortgage lending rules across Europe. 3.5X was the lowest in Europe and I think it for only used elsewhere for certain borrower's ( expats). The UK is 4.5.

I will repeat again because people seem to not understand, HAP has NOT INCREASED since 2016 except for minor tweaks. If HAP is withdrawn we would see mass evictions so no political party will do that

Pulling supports such as HTB is more likely to cause builders to reduce output than it is to reduce prices. If you think that risk is acceptable then so be it. However I would be reluctant to.

It took us until 2016 to restart building, it to 6 years to get from 6-7k units a year to 25k. If supply cranks down will it crank up again.

As regards lending limits, one would not expect that the same multiplier would be appropriate for every country. There will be different taxes and living expenses and laws in each jurisdiction. Other countries might not, as happened here, change or relax rules in order to protect non-paying mortgage holders and prevent firesales from bottoming out the market in a more disorderly manner.

It is likely that in other countries you won't be seeing current cases in the courts about people being allowed to keep their houses that they stopped paying for 12 or 15 years ago.

No I am not if government stopped or reduced HAP by 20-50% a lot of HAP tenants would be unable to pay there rent.

Non payment of rent is a reason for eviction during this eviction ban. As people would be evicted with present climate and LL's wanting to exit the business then evictions would be whole sale

meanwhile the ECB do their bit to cool inflation, economy and housing markets - rising interest rates during recession

just timely reminder not to over borrow

ECB might raise interest rates at current pace for a while - de Guindos

"Increases of 50 basis points may become the new norm in the near term," he said.

"If we do nothing, the situation would be worse because inflation is one of the factors behind the current recession," he added.

Just to be clear, are you under the impression that sensible people thought the value of their property could only rise, and that interest rates were always going to be at historic lows? Rather than looking at interest rate rises as being some unexpected, monumental assault on people’s sensibilities, most understand that we were extremely lucky to benefit from such low rates for so long, now the mortgage rates are rising again to normal levels.

People see, and feel change, but the same conditions do not exist now as they did in 2008 and most are not as frightened as you are.

So are you trying to say young families who need somewhere to live are better off paying out the same if not more to rent property as appossed to be paying off a mortage be it over 35 years .Anyone working does not have too much time to be worrying about depreciation on a home once they can afford the mortage every month that is all that matters to them and like I have said all along 'RENTING IS DEAD MONEY'

Until it starts going the other way, of course.

When will that be? 2023 we are going to see more increases.

One of the differences this time is that The ECB will be raising rates as we go into downturn/recession. At least the last time the were able to cut rates.

They have gone up repeatedly in huge chunks lately, 0.5 and 0.75 and 0.75 again etc, people have bizarrely talked about them “slowing” to 0.5 again lately but 0.5 is a massive increase.

All the noise from Lagarde and co suggests they will continue to go up for some time.

So……. Let’s say you’re right and they come down somewhat again, they are not coming down to anything even remotely close to the level from which they rose.

Not even close.

That era is over.

The answer is in the question.

it doesn’t typically happen. It is being corrected now. And quite fast and aggressively.