Russia - threadbanned users in OP

That's the danger of any peace agreement with Russia. They will just use their time to build up their military to invade again and learning from their mistakes.

The substance of the picture is true and that is all that matters.

A landgrab for sure, agree with you there, but….could all of this been a sign of something more?

This my own gut feeling, based on nothing, but part of me wonders if Putin felt that unless he at least tried for a military take-over of Kyiv, then his days were already kind of numbered. Belarus might only be a few years from thier own version of a Euromaidan, and if that happens, what would that mean for Putin’s Moscow?

My guess is that he wanted a war, first to grab Ukraine proper, and second to give himself the appearance of a military strong-man. Then he’d be safe in post for as long as he liked.

Alas for him….that’s not how it turned out.

More incompetence from the 2nd army!

You could well be right at that. Certainly not the usual Russian military way of executing their own.

I don't know. I think this has been such a disaster that they won't be trying anything again for another generation at least.

Some months ago, I remember seeing that Lukashenko was asking the Russians if Belarus could have its nukes back. They must have been transferred to Russia all those years ago, along with any other Soviet nukes from the newly independent corrupt former members of the USSR..

I've seen no mention of this since, but I don't imagine that Putin's trust goes that far with his sycophantic chum. Has anyone seen anything about this?

People don't seem to realise this enough. Russia is burning through a Cold War inventory decades in the making and storing, it absolutely doesn't have domestic ability to replace these losses in any sort of remotely meaningful way.

Modern war is high-tech war, and hugely expensive. Russia's industrial base and economy cannot support a protracted modern war against an opponent willing to dog it out like Ukraine is, even with limited backing from western nations.

Their genuinely modern inventory is totally minuscule compared to their Cold War stocks. They're not built or structured, economically or industrially, for a modern war of attrition.

Neither is Ukraine obviously, but it has the obvious defenders advantage and the national will to resist in any form possible, as well as western backing.

They literally cannot win at this point, and even if they gave up today, their military has been so severely weakened it wouldn't be restored to its pre-invasion level for a very, very long time.

For Russia to win this war at this point, it'd need massive numerical superiority of probably 5:1 in tanks, aircraft, soldiers, etc, as well as industrial capability to maintain that ratio. None of which it has.

Against China?

Coincidentally, Swedish Grippen's are now the aircraft of choice for the Irish Aer Corps. Finally, the Civil Service has realised that, apart from a clear constitutional breach of Irish Sovereignty, we cannot continue to rely on the RAF QRF to intercept Russian bombers.

12 to 16 aircraft are being proposed. I'm my mind, it's a no-brainer. They are extremely versatile jets. Perfect for a small air force like ours.

Zelensky wasn't born yesterday, and he will know as well as anyone that the Russians could not be taken at their word, so any peace deal would have to stipulate grave consequences if the Russians were to have another go at Ukraine. At a minimum, it would mean western troops on the ground in Ukraine, at least west of the Dnieper and heavy fortifications along the eastern and northern borders. But full NATO membership would be ideal. Ukraine is the prime example of what can happen when you're not in it and you have a massive belligerent neighbour.

Gas back to pre-war prices.

Looks like it was far fewer than the 120 that the Russians were claiming, and it appears that the Ukrainians got quite a few of them. Three injuries but no deaths reporting in Kyiv. A lot of power out in various cities though.