Russia - threadbanned users in OP

cnocbui · 01-01-2023 12:58pm

Russia has cruise missiles left for 2-3 powerful strikes, - Vadim Skibitsky, spokesman for the Defence Ministry's GUR, aired on TV marathon

"The Russians have a deficit today. It is primarily related to Iskander ballistic missiles. As we can see, they have been using this type of weapon for a long time. We are talking specifically about ballistic missiles. And the stockpile of Kalibers is coming to an end. The X-101, X-555 air-launched cruise missiles are much reduced.

Unfortunately that's enough to do a lot more damage to their grid, but the one trick pony is hopefully about to run low on that one trick.

cnocbui · 01-01-2023 1:04pm

An image has been published showing that Ukraine managed to rescue and recover at least seven IL-76 heavy military transport aircraft at the start of a full-scale war.

All of them crossed the Ukrainian-Polish border at low altitude with transponders turned off and landed at the Polish airbase Deblin in the early hours of 25 February 2022.

The previously unpublished image was tweeted out by the Gerjon_ project, which specialises in tracking aircraft movements by analysing various data sources.

I'll bet they have been of great help with the shopping trips.

cnocbui · 01-01-2023 1:14pm

Satellite images have emerged of the Engels airfield where air defence was operating again yesterday

They do not show the aftermath of the strikes on 27 and 29 December. However, while it took the Rascists 11 days to prepare the preliminary rocket attacks on Ukraine, it took 13 days to prepare for yesterday's shelling.

The attack on Engels bought time to increase the safety margin of our energy system. That is why there were no blackouts this time.

The purposing, planning, intelligence quality and deliberation behind Ukraine's actions like these strikes is very impressive. It's not Putin whose a couple of chess moves ahead.

cnocbui · 01-01-2023 1:47pm

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1609284044847730688

Ah, another interesting reason why Putin coveted ukraine so much. it wouldn't surprise me if there were projections that a reduction in corruption and closer ties to the west might have lead to Ukraine's Economy and GDP overshadowing the Horde's

Though Russia’s economy is about ten times larger than Ukraine’s in terms of GDP, Ukraine’s GDP grew 70.8% from 2015 to 2020 while Russia’s advanced only 8.8% in that same time frame.

zv2 · 01-01-2023 1:55pm

Detentions in Moscow-

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1609532582600794112?s=20&t=3LnBygBDRGUp2AV2G2rPWw

Fighting Tao · 01-01-2023 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052274#Comment_120052274

Might be something to do with this:

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1609464756255035393?s=46&t=4upSuGW0s1mNTSw-UfA_Gw

fly_agaric · 01-01-2023 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052112#Comment_120052112

Probably what may happen (think it kind of already is happening...?) is that the gap between them launching very substantial cruise/ballistic missile barrages will get larger, the quantity launched in them will reduce, and/or maybe the quality of the likes of their modern cruise missiles will degrade further as Russia has to use some poorer quality components + hacks to make any new ones (once the old stock is gone).

I have to say I have my doubts about them ever running out of such missiles as things stand.

Articles on sanctions evasion by Russia from November:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-presses-allies-to-tighten-up-sanctions-enforcement-on-russia-11668878641

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/08/dual-use-goods-are-fueling-russias-war-on-ukraine/

Unfortunately, Russia still seems to be able to access some "dual use" high tech stuff coming from the West or involving the technology/IP of Western countries that either already is sanctioned [or if not, should be sanctioned].

A number of 3rd countries are selling them this stuff, likely profiting massively off this war + the growing Russian desperation (would expect their suppliers will soak them!) and acting as conduits like Turkey, China. Another benefit of the long era of thoughtless/naive globalisation. Hard to stop it, but really I think some secondary sanctions should be starting to come in - esp. on Turkey given it is in NATO (on paper anyway!). They really have been permitted a huge amount of freedom so far to play both sides for their own benefit free of cost rather than make any choices.

Some pain should be doled out to any suppliers that may be fulfilling sudden large spikes in ordering of equipment from likes of Turkey and not asking questions at all + just taking the windfall profit. I dunno maybe make a few strong public examples if can be proven etc??

Discodog · 01-01-2023 2:36pm

Nice tribute to Ukraine during London's New Year fireworks.

RoyalCelt · 01-01-2023 2:37pm

I think Russia will go full steam ahead firing as many missiles as possible until they reach about 10% left. They'll keep these and will only fire newly produced missiles along with Iranian missiles which they'll have acquired by then.

They fired over 1000 cruise missiles this year with over 700 either shot down or malfunctioned. I think next year they will fire less and a higher % will be shot down.

I think next year is the year they'll exhaust Russian stocks of many different types of weapons including combat vehicles and will be down to using absolute trash by years end. I also think they'll have exhausted whatever Iran and north Korea can spare.

If Ukraine have a net win in 2023 they're fucked because unlike Russia they seem to be get better trained and better weapons so only getting stronger. Ukraine will never settle for a ceasefire so Russia will have no option but to keep throwing cannon fodder at the lines to hold them back.

Russia of course has the option to just leave but even if they accept defeat I'd expect Putin to order his entire army to defend Crimea where Ukraine would take heavy losses to take back an area that's 50% Russia already.

The fact remains Putin could just leave, humiliated of course but he'd probably get away with never having to pay reparations, handing anybody over and sanctions would be lifted as long as Ukraine were free to join the EU and NATO.

dennis72 · 01-01-2023 2:44pm

Where ever Russian planes can fly outside that's where they can return with sanctioned goodies

Furze99 · 01-01-2023 3:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120051772#Comment_120051772

"Happy new year to all Russians and Ukrainians"

Get lost with your sanctimonious stance and barely hidden support for the Russian invaders :(

coolbeans · 01-01-2023 3:58pm

We're nowhere near the end of the war. It's the speaking from both sides of the mouth that I object to.

cnocbui · 01-01-2023 4:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052344#Comment_120052344

I think the EU should ask Switzerland and Hungary for a full accounting of their commerce with Iran, Russia and their close allies. They are more likely a problem than Turkey, who are building a drone factory in Ukraine. Israel needs a serious looking at by the US, also.

Much as I am hesitant about notable Turkish duplicity and don't trust them, the objective facts are that they have been vastly more helpful than many countries you'd think should have been more onside. They have supplied lots of offensive weapons, unlike Israel or the Swiss; they supplied offensive drones, whereas the US didn't and still refuses to. They closed the Bosporus straights to Russian warships and they assisted massively with enabling Ukrainian grain exports by really sticking it to Putin and forcing him to allow it to happen.

I really am gritting my teeth in defending Turkey in any way, but the facts require it.

Hobgoblin11 · 01-01-2023 5:03pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64140403

Im in it for the long haul, are you?

Say my name · 01-01-2023 5:14pm

Russia, a country of women and FSB men.

http://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1609429907591004160

fly_agaric · 01-01-2023 5:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052707#Comment_120052707

Yes you have a point on the likes of Switzerland + Hungary. I would say for former it is likely to be financial than any technological/material assistance + not cracking down enough on Russian money in the banks but with Hungary, who knows what they might be helping with!?

On the negative side of the ledger for Turkey, it is providing economic support to Russia, a deliberate expansion of trade and financial links and Turkish companies busy in Russia buying up sold off/dumped/expropriated Western assets. Afair there was evidence it was involved in picking up some of Ukraine's grain (rebadged as "Russian") on the cheap as well as doing the public diplomacy around the export "corridor".

Turkey is blocking the expansion of NATO and making security of Baltic states from Russia harder.

The drones Turkey sells to Ukraine are not its most advanced ones (or it is developing more advanced ones? not that well up on it). edit: Don't know if they are comparable to the US ones which Ukraine was supposed to be looking for but I don't believe they are. They get top dollar for them of course, I expect it is now paid for by EU/US aid + they can use information learned in the war to develop their own drone programme further. It costs them zero, they hurt Russia with this action as well and Russia is in no position to respond because it is very busy (and of course Turkey is helping Russia in other ways, and Russia is short of countries willing to do that). They may help build a drone factory in Ukraine when this war is over, not before I am sure.

Turkey is not any kind of friend or ally of Russia of course fortunately (quite the contrary). IMO they don't give a f-ck about Ukraine either or whether it "wins" or "loses". It is all self interest and purely about increasing their own power. To my mind if they are actually a part of NATO and a supposed Western ally, more should be expected of them here (more I think than of Israel say, though I agree with your comments on them), given what that organisation's main purpose is + how invasion of Ukraine has put it to the forefront again.

I suppose though, maybe I should not comment (on such lofty geopolitics matters) or criticise too much as a citizen of a neutral country (ha)!

usualstripes · 01-01-2023 6:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120051621#Comment_120051621

They won't win

Gatling · 01-01-2023 6:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053043#Comment_120053043

Ukraine is winning and and will keep winning until the Russians are all dead or leave Ukraine

01-01-2023 6:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053043#Comment_120053043

Would you care to elaborate?

Asdfgh2020 · 01-01-2023 6:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052390#Comment_120052390

I doubt if Putin is too worried about the accuracy of his missiles and will continue to 'Lob' WW1 or WW2 type shite into Ukraine for years if he is allowed....with the cost of the 'anti missile missiles' being multiples of the Russian ones there will only be one winner?

01-01-2023 7:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053124#Comment_120053124

No country will allow itself to be subjugated to barbaric Russian rule while it bombs it, no matter how many years go by. Meanwhile Russian is heading for the stone age at a rate of knots... you think that's winning? LOL

usualstripes · 01-01-2023 7:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053079#Comment_120053079

Ukraine will have to face some kind of reality to what is happening currently on the ground. As a neutral in this I am eager to know what you class as winning? With all of the weaponry being given to Ukraine and all of the external training over the last number of years the net effect is that there are no more than 200,000 trained operatives left in the ranks. How can this be viewed as winning when there are maybe 150,000 dead and as many more incapacitated and this is with the utmost respect to genuine Ukrainian army personnel.

Any unbiased overview of the situation will tell you that the majority of the remaining forces will be annihilated in the coming months. There is no other possible outcome. Its an absurd and horrible waste of life but this is what is and will happen.

Gatling · 01-01-2023 7:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053194#Comment_120053194

No .

Ukraine is winning

usualstripes · 01-01-2023 7:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053216#Comment_120053216

You can keep saying that as many times as you wish but it doesn't change the facts on the ground. Unfortunately from a Ukrainian perspective.

Jinglejangle69 · 01-01-2023 7:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053194#Comment_120053194

150,000 dead????

Gatling · 01-01-2023 7:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053222#Comment_120053222

How would you know,

You have an opinion, and nothing else

usualstripes · 01-01-2023 7:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120053268#Comment_120053268

Correct. I do have an opinion. Like everyone else on this forum. Most may not like it but that's the way it is. I just take exception to the massive loss of life, on both sides, and am extremely concerned when the narrative being played out is that Ukraine is winning. It generates a false perception which only prolongs the conflict.