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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,522 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I'm reading that was one of the mildest Christmases and New Years in Kyiv in years (by Ukrainian standards) : the temperature hasn't gone below zero at any point since mid December. Seems nothing is going to plan for Putin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,689 ✭✭✭Economics101


    Mearsheimer is a very controversial outlier on Ukraine (and perhaps other issues). Interesting that apparently he said that Ukraine was ill-advised to give up nuclear weapons some decades ago. In my opinion his take on the current Ukrainian conflict has totally discredited him,

    Peer review may be a necessary in research evaluation: it does not guarantee infallibility, however.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,445 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    How do you peer review an opinion piece about 'liberal delusions'?

    Utter nonsense.

    What you call a 'coup' I call a legitimate democratic revolution. But whichever it was is actually irrelevent.

    It all started with Russia, in clear violation of the Budapest agreement, putting economic pressure - threatening a blockade - on Ukrainian PM not to sign the EU treaty.

    Ukraine is freely entitled under Budapest and the NATO-Russia Founding act and Helsinki agreement to align with the West and NATO.

    All of these were signed either by Russia directly, or by the USSR and Russia claims to be USSR's successor state in these agreements.

    Russia signed an agreement to remove its soldiers from Moldova by 2002. They are still there!

    How can you have a peace treaty with a gangster country like that? They only respect military power.

    There is no point pushing for a peace if it just another Budapest.

    Post edited by odyssey06 on

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,543 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Zelensky says Russia waging war so Putin can stay in power ‘until the end of his life’

    Is anyone in Russia listening?

    Is that what they want?


    Zelensky is quite the politician.He makes good simple points and let's hope he keeps the muscle to back up his words.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Sure they are listening, but they have no choice in Putins Russia. Voice a different opinion , protest etc, 15 years prison for you, ( if you are lucky) if not, front lines in Ukraine. So far, the Russian death toll has passed the 100'000+ mark ( will take a very big hike this week) So you will have this Nr of families who for sure do not agree with Putin + an estimated 3 times the Nr injured, who also disagree. And not a peep out of them. Not yet anyway....but maybe when the new mobilization start's, things might start to change. Not before time.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,543 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Well,if they have access to his speech I feel he is much more convincing a speaker than his opponents.(propaganda is very important and he is no slouch)

    Feels so much like they picked on the wrong country and the wrong leader (apart from the basic miscalculation of invading a sovereign nation)

    I hear also elsewhere that Israel is coming off the fence since Russia chummied up to Iran and she may well be holding a few cards .



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    After todays events I’d be quite worried living in Donetsk

    Ukrainian army only 20km away



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Amantstu, how do you evaluate a one sided speech? Written by the best speech writers Putins money can buy? No rebuttal, discussion etc. But the returning body bags and injured nrs do not lie, and neither can the recent Russian retreats be covered up. More and more Putin is going to have to cover the cracks.( if he can...)



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    There will be lots of pillaging in retreat, sorry, "advancing in reverse".



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,543 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Well Putin was considered to have been doing a very good job in presenting his/Russia's side of the geopolitical state of play in the years preceding the invasion.

    People who mattered thought well of him (Blair,it seems and of course Trump along with some important European politicians) and he was well considered in the general public too.

    I assumed he had a big hand in all that and didn't just read what speechmakers wrote for him.

    Since this latest phase of his expansionism his stock has fallen and people have wondered have his intellectual powers waned.(just to have contemplated this invasion is evidence of that)


    I don't hang on any of his words so I can't say what role speechmakers play in his presentations now but I would advise him to vacate the stage as his stock has fallen and even his nuclear card is apparently questionable after the "farce" of his conventional military achievements.


    Seem like "softly, softly catchee Putin " at this stage and I hope they hang him by the balls.

    Post edited by amandstu on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Ha Ha Ha, Amandtsu. There's only one exit for Putin, and he knows it. I'm not sure that it will be the one that you have ascribed to him,( it has a nice ring to it) but for sure Putin will fight to his last breath ( literally ) to avoid it. At different times in recent world history, it suited western / US ( and other's, Assad for example ) to cooperate with Putin. Merkel for the cheap energy was one ( which landed us in the current mess) etc. But over time, he was seen for what he really was, the Georgia and Crimea land grab's, Novichok poisoning in the UK, downing of flight 17 Malaysian Airlines, interfering in elections and referendums'. Supporting dictatorships around the world, always trying to weaken the west. Nope Amandstu, in the last few years, despite all the flowery speeches, Putin's mantle slipped, and the mafia thug emerged.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,198 ✭✭✭Good loser


    I heard (is it true?) that in his first meeting with Macron -with the long table between them - he spoke for either 5 or 7 hours non stop!!

    Obvious megalomania there. Uses very crude language too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,543 ✭✭✭amandstu


    According to this

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/europe/france-emmanuel-macron-pcr-putin-meeting-intl/index.html

    the Russians said Macron would not take a Covid test.

    It mentions that the talks took over 5 hours but I don't think it mentions Putin talking non-stop although that might seem to be in character if it happened



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,659 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    No leader was willing to let the Russians administer a test, rather than refused to take one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Who would blame them at the time either,

    Can't imagine Putin didn't need several naps to Naps to make it through 5 hours especially in the state his health has appeared lately



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    France have given 470mn in military aid commitments to Ukraine, they are the 3rd largest military exporter and make good stuff, they are top 10 economy.


    And they have given a pittance.


    As is the case for nearly all of Western Europe. There is a great talk but Ukraine is not in the fight still because of the dribble of euros given by continental western Europe.


    Financial and humanitarian aid is just as woeful.


    Putin is not going to be concerned by it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It clearly shows if the US wasn't there to support and re-enforce NATO countries nato would be in a world of trouble, two things I believe Russia has infiltrated many eu States and institutions which may explain the reasoning behind some lack of support as recently seen in Germany with the Russian spy case , another is the lack of military spending done across the whole of Europe over the last 20 + years ,let's cut back the Berlin wall is gone and America Will always save us attitude is going to hit hard at some stage if not against Russia but when china comes knocking and wants something,who's going to stop them,

    Think Germany had an aircraft more stealth the the F117 at the time and they binned it ,the have one of the premier small arms producers in the world H&K yet still managed to make a mess of the procurement to replace one rifle with another, despite having one of the most modern military rifles in the world in service,

    Their airforce and Naval systems are in a similar state of not exactly knowing what they need and where and when they are getting it ,

    Ukraine offered them big money to sell them Marader infantry vehicles and repeatedly refused to sell them to Ukraine,but then selling them for less to the Greek government,



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    You are aware that EU and EU countries gave more aid to Ukraine than USA in 2022, right?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The focus is clearly different, with the EU promising a lot more economic assistance (which is also desperately needed).

    That being said, these are commitments rather than delivered amounts, and much of the EU committed aid has not arrived yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes, I think all these figures (in likes of Kiel Institute website/paper on Ukraine's aid) are committments. I think the recent large amount (EUR18bn - if irc) that was agreed by the EU members is meant to be funding for Ukraine for most of 2023.

    On the military aid, I think European countries just have much less on hand than US without stripping their own militaries bare. They don't seem to want to do that. There's uncertainty around some of it as well, as a few European countries (France/Finland are 2 I think) won't talk about it much in public and openly say exactly what they are doing when it comes to supplying weaponry, so it has to be inferred.

    The US is IMO probably the only one that (assuming all other problems like training, logistics, maintenance etc are sorted) can provide Ukraine with everything it needs weapon wise (up to tanks, planes and long range missiles if decisions were made to do this) without affecting its own military much.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Yes, for much of the EU we/they are in a far better position to provide economic as opposed to military aid. Though that is something that may be revisited over the coming years (mind you, I think Germany is already slowing backing away from their renewed 2% GDP commitment).

    And also, yes, the US is obligated to announce all their aid packages which makes it far easier to track. I suspect some of the Eastern European/Baltic countries are potentially under-estimated.

    I do not think it is a stretch to say that Ukraine would be in serious trouble without the US though and they have provided the majority of the material support. The EU is more focusing on recovery funds, but there may be nothing to recover from without the assistance of the US and some EE states.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,379 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Great to read such positivity from Ukrainian Politicians

    SLAVA UKRAYINI



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes it is great to hear positive statements like that. And the bottom line is that Ukraine has to win it. Their very survival depends on it, and not only Ukraine, Europe needs to be protected from Mad Vlad too.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,325 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    There's an argument that while they haven't put boots on the ground, the US and EUs credibility is on the line here somewhat - insofar as them being "powers" with the ability to help or protect their neighbours and allies from russian expansionism.

    NATO in particular, really: what value would that grouping have if it can't intervene - and succeed - in circumstances that have direct relevance to its very existence? If it can't protect Ukraine from invasion from a terrorist state, what's the point of it? They may as well wear blue helmets then and be done with it for all their ability to act.

    If Ukraine can't win this, then it'll open legitimate questions about the West's primacy in Eastern Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,543 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Well at the outset I think the prevailing view may have been that nothing could stop Russia from taking most of the country even if it had to put up with a guerilla resistance in the short to medium or even long term.

    So capitulation of a sort seemed to be accepted .


    It was Ukraine that refused to accept that, not NATO ,USA or Europe.


    We had to put up with the Iron Curtain for most of my life and it seemed this was going to be a return to something very close.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,379 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    IMHO, Ukraine must and ( hopefully) will win this, albeit at a shocking price.

    Watching on TV tonight on the BBC News, it’s truly shocking what putin is doing to Bahkmut.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    If it is the case that NATO has an obligation to non-members, what is the point of joining? Countries like Ukraine would get all the benefits but none of the downsides of membership.

    I also dont think that Western European countires claim primacy over Eastern Europe. Ukraine should win for Ukraine's sake and not for any other reason. NATO were prepared for Ukraine to lose within the opening days/weeks back in Feb 22, so there is no reputational damage to NATO for a country losing a fight that NATO werent in. Similarly, NATO cant take most of the credit when that belongs to the Ukrainians themselves



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,445 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I think there would be some reputational damage now as they would have been seen to a back a losing horse, so to speak. Although far more to Russia for making such heavy work of it should they prevail.

    And not specific to NATO but to the US, UK, France given they signed the Budapest Agreement, so the value of any security guarantees they give would clearly be impacted.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,325 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    This has turned into a Proxy War however, of which there have been many across the old Cold War and new; with NATO / Western intervention self-evident by sanctions upon Russia & the continued supply of equipment & intelligence to Ukraine. And training too. Just today the headlines are Zelensky appealing to the US to give them heavy-tanks instead of just APCs - the sides in this are pretty well defined if not entirely official. The upside to official NATO membership is obviously all this not happening.

    By all accounts, where we are now is entirely down to the resolve of the Ukrainians to fight, and the ineptitude of the Russians to organise - but also the pivot towards help from the West once it became clear Ukraine wouldn't fall as quickly as many feared. Easy to forget the early days of invasion when it looked like Kyiv was toast while the world was still catching up - as recounted by the Guardian article I shared the other day.

    I haven't seen any credible attempt to give credit to NATO - but equally Ukraine's ability to sustain a defence, then turn it into a counter-offensive, couldn't have happened without that active supply of vital logistics from Western nations. So if Ukraine was to eventually fall, after all those weapons, all that training & intelligence shared with Kyiv? I think it would be a serious blotch in the copybook of NATO/US/EU power and its ability to influence events - even if the target is a non-member.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Some hypocrisy from Putin, bombs the **** out of Ukraine for Christmas and new year but asks them to respect a ceasefire so the Russian Christmas can be celebrated.



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