Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Of course there will be an end and they will begin to rise again.

I remember the property pin forum in 2012, there wasnt a house in the country at any price that people wouldnt say was too expensive (at the bottom of the market) 500k for a period house in ranelagh was too much and it had further to go. It didnt and the same house is worth 3-4x now.

The only way house prices drop is if build prices drop. Materials had been dropping, but word filtering through that they are starting to increase again. Hearing that steel is starting to increase after falling a bit in price in the last 4-6 months. Timber was supposed to be getting cheaper bit it again is moving upwards. Concrete because of carbon taxes will not move substantially

The other variables remain constant as far as I can see labour, professional costs, tax and site costs.

Hard to see a substantial fall. A correction where the heat that was there early in 2022 is corrected back is possible but will prices stabilise at that or start to move again.

The final factor in cost is interest rate increases. Most saving will be swallowed by fixed rate interest increase over a five year period especially if you factor in any amount of time renting.

Predictions

Froth to leave market. It to stabilise or slightly fall off end of 2022 prices which we will see from selling price figures which will start to filter through from March '23 on. 10% in Dublin a bit less elsewhere, rural area to see prices still increasing

Do you realize inflation will become a much more serious problem if they do react to delinquencies by cutting interest rates? This war NATO provoked with our Russian friends is supposed to make us think Russia is responsible for the inflation central banks have caused.

On thing for sure, cement, concrete and blocks will not come back down in price. Carbon tax on the cement, the push to make greener cement by transitioning to more expensive fuels, carbon dioxide additives for concrete etc will mean this is only going one way and that's up regardless of whether demand falls or not.

Sad reality, this push for a high ESG score seems to be more of a priority than profit margins or revenue.

In Sean Quinn's words cement is made of stone and sh!te. The Sh!the part varies little in price, the real cost is the energy not just used to produce it but the in the transport of its raw materials and in its transport itself. After the 2008-2010 crash concrete fell.in price by about 15-25% in Ireland where we had gone from building nearly 50k houses a year to zero.

We are not in that scenario at present and even if we were the government is adding 5-8% in cost to it a year in carbon tax on it and on fuel. Electricity prices are unlikely to decline any time soon.

My understanding on steel was that there was a hope that the war in Ukraine would be ending around now and this would feed up manufactured steel out of Ukraine and Russia along with a large supply of heavy scrap steel for smelting. This is unlikely now to materialize before the end of 2023 at this stage.

Building labour costs will remain stubbornly high in Dublin because of the issue with labour and it travelling in and out of that sh!thole (sorry city).

While extensions will not come into play in Dublin they will provide an alternative option outside Dublin if material drops a bit and labour costs slightly soften.

Which is better 1k/ week in Carlow, Laois, Offaly or Westmeath or 1.5k/ week in Dublin.

Incorrect. While electricity will soften oil, gas will not especially oil based products. The 20c/L of a tax rebate is supposed to end in March, best case scenario is that 10c is left on for six months. 12-18 months is a long time extra carbon taxes will offset any price decreases. Renewables are not not cheaper than coal or oil based systems, renewables energy based solutions need 100% backup of a fast cut in system which keeps there prices high as well. Offshore wind is more expensive than any present generation system. While electricity prices will drop they will remain more expensive than prices of 12 months ago

Where will new supplies of steel come from. India or China. Any new build needs to make sure it labour and input costs are similar to Ukraine/Russia for when they come back.on line. It takes years to put new suppliers(furnaces) in place.

If house construction lsows down or stops it will be different to 2008 on because there will be nothing to buy after it stops. Last time there was plenty for people to by. There was a huge over supply at the time construction stopped.

Well we will have to agree to disagree and have another chat in say 12 months time but IMO - petrol prices, heating oil prices dropping over the last couple of months. 3 main indicators for construction showing a massive slowdown due to demand for construction raw materials disappearing and this before a recession and another 2% interest rates increases as well as the Ukraine war and the issues with China are still ongoing?

Wind energy is and will be cheaper to produce as the technology progresses

You say that, yet there is so much that can happen in the next 12 months which is why I am agreeing to disagree with an different poster as the goal posts could well and truly move in the next year.

Ukraine war could finish.

China could finally get its sh1te together.

We could have a wave of migration outwards from people who simply cant buy or rent to other countries. There is evidence of this ramping up from last year

We are going into a recession and with that comes a downturn in peoples spending and that's on everything from the 4 euro lattes to the millionaire gaffs in the sticks. Be interesting how many domestic companies hit the wall in 2023.

We may see the advance of the modular homes which there is 5k due this year they are cheap and quick to build and would solve a lot our demand issues if this process were ramped up, add in the last bit of business pushed through the Dail with regards to planning will also speed things up.

The way I see it is this time next year we will be looking at more supply and less demand than there is currently. Add in interest rates going up at least another 2% its going to take a lot of heat out of buying a house or building that extension.

How was balancing supply with demand, and ensuring affordability “easily achievable”?

Well we will just have to wait and see. If the government want to turn it around they should be throwing the kitchen sink at modular builds, but you could be right lets see where we are in Jan 24

Sites in my area which were quoted around 100k about 7 or 8 years ago are still up for sale today by the same original owners, but now for up to 250k. Someone must not have let them know that site costs were fixed.

Fair enough but back to my original point that if there are no houses to buy, it doesnt really matter. I think we are going around in circles here, so i will bow out.

Have you any specific deatils on the name of the co? I can see these ramping up