A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Mortgage lending down 40% over the year in Germany

There has to be a reckoning with prices or else construction workers will have to face either emigrating or hitting the dole queue. People simply have not got the money to pay for the eye watering amounts being asked for.

I used to listen to a good bit of talk radio but stopped about fifteen years ago and don't miss it one bit. Once you realise it's all about trying to enrage people there's no going back.

Looking at that graph it's a clear market correction. The pandemic and income supports bloated the economy.

necessary but it is a big deal. Going back to 2019 would be very welcome for most people, however for many others it will be a very painful correction.

Asset price corrections, and tech job losses will be very painful in the short term for a lot of people. The big question, particularly re: assets, is will governments attempt to bail out people/companies who bet big and lost big during this correction?

I think it mentions 2011 on the graph. Probably a decade of low interest rates gave the property market some extra steam in most European countries. You would think first time buyers, people who may have to increase borrowing and buy to let investors may be taking a wait and see approach for a while to see how things go. That is quite a big part of the market when you think about it.

QE, bailouts and all that free money printed has created this demand, a natural correction to pre pandemic levels is necessary, no economy in the world can reach the current demand. While there will be job losses most will be happy to welcome back some stability.

And your 2nd point, they shouldn't, if the government keep intervening we will never get out of this inflation. Things need to go naturally now

Private work is not a preferred sector for our business. As I said you may see drops but not in preferred sectors in prime locations. We are out the doors with work and with requests for new work. There is some cooling, slight cooling. It’s still far far from a recession or a bust in construction, just a slight correction. Plus January is always the hungry month for construction so one contractor looking for a job is not a big indicator in the scheme of things.

If you look at the link construction is at its lowest since pre pandemic and that is across the Eurozone. This is not a normal January this is the start of people no longer having the finances to pay for things that are not worth it.. The vast majority of people looking for thing like extensions can not afford the very high price increase over the last 12 months or so in a lot of cases your talking 30/40% dependent on the gouging. Peoples wage have not gone up anywhere near that in this timeframe. Throw in interest rate hikes and a lot of peoples dream of the new kitchen or bathroom or extension is no longer possible due to loans they would/could have got costing a hell of a lot more. Irelands PMI is out on Monday already its below 50 at 46.8 for October lets see if there is further contraction in construction in December and then of course as you said Jan is normally a lean month for everything not just construction. It doesn't bode well for anyone working in the industry, they had better hope the vast majority of building materials keep falling and of course make sure they pass the savings on.

Barclays in the same camp as Fidelity regarding their predictions for the year ahead

"For instance, Barclays says 2023 will be one of the worst years for the world economy in four decades, and Fidelity believes a “hard landing” is unavoidable. "

JP Morgan seems to think there will be a recession but a milder one

Blackrock's growth US projections accounting for the lag in 22's interest rate hikes.

latest figures for inflation for December and Retail sales for November. It really paints a horrible picture to where we are going to be in 2023. Sales down year on year (-4.2) and month on month (-1.4) for November and inflation dropping by .3% in December. This will continue throughout 2023 with inflation going continuing to be negative and sales continuing to stall. It was clear to me anyway that in general people could not afford the price points that were being asked for in almost all goods and services in the country. So the lads arguing with me about construction still being awash with work well enjoy what ever you can get now as that cow has well and truly been milked and is only fit for slaughter. As I said construction PMI out on Monday lets see how construction is holding up.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/harmonised-inflation-rate-mom

Started watching the Bernie Madoff documentary on Netflix last night. The parallels then with now are pretty scary. Issues with rising energy costs, tanking stock markets and rising inflation all precipitated the 2008 meltdown.

US debt was $9 trillion in 2008 now it is $31 trillion. Crazy eh ?