Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Lots of comments like this on Twitter but I don't think that is the case.

The situation at Bakhmut is weakening, albeit slowly. I don't think it is in danger of falling in the near future, certainly not in the next few days or weeks.

If Soledar falls, then Ukraine will fall back behind the Bakhmut river. The river isn't that wide, but it will be difficult for the Russians to get across given how militarized the entire area is. My guess is that the northern part of the Bakhmut front will stabilize behind the river.

In all the noise over Soledar, not many people are talking about the attempted Russian advance in the south of Bakhmut. It looks like the Russians are trying to cut off the village of Klishchiivka which has been an important strongpoint protecting a major highway that you can see in the map. It remains to be seen how effective this advance will be.

Quantity is a kind of quality.

...

It's a regionally important economy. It does however sell vast quantities of very important items for the global economy, small though it is now.

What use would F16s be in Ukraine,

A highly menuverable agile multirole aircraft can't can carry several thousand pounds of guide munitions including guided bombs ,

Vs the su25 while it's primary role is CAS ground attack it can't carry the payload that the US and Nato use , which could be a Big deal when dealing with troops and vehicles on the ground

Indeed, however their entire political system has collapsed before, several times. Things continue, the world is relatively adaptable, gaps get filled over time. Remember when people in this thread were e.g. panicking that Germany couldn't survive this winter without Ru gas, that Europe was doomed, that there would be a global hunger crisis, etc?

A sudden sharp collapse could induce some global pain, but a gradual erosion of Russia's exports over years/decades? I think the world and even regional neighbours will be relatively okay (if not better off)

The Ukrainian generals and planners (who know much more than internet armchair generals) want them, so there will be solid reasons.

I never said that Europe can't function without, just that there are things more important than the puck Money gas, and that is all Russia ever supplied in gas, small money but very important to the economy.

I think Europe should have taken this serious from Day one, I think that his threats re wheat supply etc should have been viewed as one small step below a declaration of war.

Belarus will probably be annexed in to Russia this year or next, so the hostile State USSR 2.0 will be at the border of Poland.

What we will end up with is Russia bordering the EU, the Donbas And probably a skelp of south East of Ukraine ruined and in a war of stale mate and occasional attrition for many years to come.

The failure to take this seriously will have long term implications for Europe, all of them negative.

I still see no reason to think that Putin will care or change if Russia goes back to a low level second world country, for most of the time of the Soviet Union it was barely able feed and cloth people and that was with it working people to death in vast numbers. Russian welfare is not our concern, it's carrying on the same as it has for long time, it is a country that killed 30 million of its own in the last century.

Look at Germany already rolling back on its fanfare budget increase, rolling back on fighter jets as well.

All I want is for Europe to treat this seriously, it's implications outside of Ukraine are going to be long term problems and if the war ended in Ukraine tomorrow there would still be long term serious challenges.

Damage control - they havent advanced as fast as they expected or other russian commentators expected so now they have to start recognising the Ukrainian resolve. Playing to the domestic audience

Poland are awake to the crisis from day one, they know the reality of what Putin wants, they were living it while people like Scholz were smoking a joint, quoting Mao and Che Guevara at parties trying to Impress some girl and get the ride.*

Poland would be justified in sending it's army in to Western Poland in response to Belarus being annexed, free up Ukrainian forces.

* I hope he got the ride, we've all been in that situation one way or another.

The UA airforce flys multiple sorties daily. We've no idea how many HARM missiles they have or how many Migs are converted to fire them. So if they have an abundance of HARM missiles but only a handful of jets capable of fire them, then F16's could help.

It could be the same with the JDAMS they have been given, can all UA fighters be converted to drop them? Plenty of details we couch generals don't know, but Ukraine's airforce do. If they are asking for XYZ, there's a reason why they are asking.

And depending on the spec, if they had F16's with the upgraded ECM pods, they would be more effective than their Soviet counterpart (I'd say the US would be reluctant to give them ECM pods though)

But as others have pointed out, there's other western airframes more suitable for Ukraine.

@timmyntc Ukrainians still have MiGs and Sukhois in their air force too - but they cant be used to massive efficiency because of the prevalence of AA. Why would F16s be different?.

They can't carry the same ordnance or electronic counter measures as a modern F16, which can carry more smart bombs they proven effective in every area the US had fought in the last 30+ years.

Most of the ordinance the Ukrainans are using is unguided rockets for air 2 ground attack role

And this...

"well it was widely accepted here that the Ukrainians are asking for much more than they expect to get, '

Widely accepted on here by who exactly????

Horde mentality. 🙄

There is another shopping centre fire in Moscow.

Another poster in the politics thread was complaining about the Ukrainans clamping down on the Russian churches .

FSB priests and patriarchs