Don't sign up to Flogas new fixed rate electricity

walterking · 10-01-2023 9:49am #1

Flogas are getting quite a bit of publicity for their new fixed rate plan that has slightly reduced rates.

https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2023/01/10/first-fixed-price-energy-deal-hits-market-in-sign-of-hope-for-consumers/

Bonkers say they are good value - They are NOT "good value" unless you are simply comparing today's prices and not understanding the commodity market

Business electricity rates which more closely track the changes in the electricity market have dropped substantially recently from a high of almost 60c to 35c-38c and set for further drops in the next few weeks. Consumer pricing moves slower, but I am quite confident that decent price reduction will be announced in the next few weeks and will bring rates under 35c and if gas prices stay at current levels and lower (no reason they won't as almost all Russian supply has been replaced) unit rates in the 25c-30c range will be back by summer.

So in my opinion as someone who tracks commodity prices, this is a bad deal and best avoided.

11-01-2023 9:55am

It's sounds mental alright, there was no sign of this offer of helping customers 12 months ago . If people sign up to this, they will use it as an excuse not to drop prices because fixed price customers will be stung

zell12 · 11-01-2023 10:22am

But, in December, Ryan said..

https://www.thejournal.ie/gas-electricity-prices-high-two-years-eamon-ryan-5954818-Dec2022/

Mav11 · 11-01-2023 10:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120092993#Comment_120092993

Not disagreeing with the OP, but can you not get out of the contract for €50?

Cape Clear · 12-01-2023 3:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058278971/dont-sign-up-to-flogas-new-fixed-rate-electricity

I fail to see any consumer issue in your post.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120093164#Comment_120093164

Worth checking the T&C's of the contract. Also worth looking at the clause relating to the €150 welcome credit as some providers mention clawing this back in the event that you exit the contract within 12 months. I was with Airtricity briefly and benefited from €250 in cashback, when I left after 6 months I was only charged the €50 early breakage fee. EI do stipulate in their T&C's that the cashback is to be paid back in the event of early termination by the customer. I don't see prices falling until April tbh.

Calahonda52 · 12-01-2023 3:54pm

12 months contracts now back as market has peaked for this winter so lock in the consumer now

John_Rambo · 12-01-2023 3:58pm

Bonkers.ie has no reputation now. Constantly pushing flogas when they're clearly not the right option.

12-01-2023 4:12pm

I ran mine through Bonkers and it told me to stick with what I have, Bord Gais

tjhook · 12-01-2023 5:10pm

Thanks all above - I had seen the publicity and assumed the offer wasn't just Flogas being charitable. Good to know that energy prices are likely to fall significantly in the coming months.

To be fair, any contract where you're paying a fixed price for something whose price fluctuates (mortgages, energy) is a case of the service provider pricing the product at a fixed rate that they reckon will make a profit. The consumer, if they take it, is then betting against the service provider's projections.

(that may be over simplifying - some consumers just want certainty and are willing to pay for it)

walterking · 12-01-2023 9:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120093086#Comment_120093086

In early December the forward contracts for gas in Sept-Dec 2023 were still at $150-$170, so at the time, that was correct. They have plummeted to $70-$75 and show no sign of rising. This is pre-Ukraine pricing and even allowing for some forward purchasing at the elevated levels, the average price will be well under $100 and that should see unit pricing of circa 30c ex vat.

walterking · 12-01-2023 9:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120092993#Comment_120092993

12 months ago gas prices went crazy and some sellers were losing money hand over fist. About 30 electricity suppliers in the UK went bust, here most suppliers generate, but Panda exited the marker as did iberdola as they were losing a fortune

phormium · 16-01-2023 9:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120100428#Comment_120100428

What's the story with LPG bulk tank stuff?

Now I like my gas heating/hob etc and have been quite happy with it but boiler is old and don't know what I may do if it gives up, much as I'd like to stick with gas it's hard to know so not sure I want to tie myself to anything.

Anyway I have been offered 12mth fixed at 90c incl tax from provider, will need to top up tank within few months, good or bad deal? Or should I stick with the variable in the hope it comes down by the time I need a fill. 😊

Scruff · 16-01-2023 10:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120117497#Comment_120117497

Bulk LPG is always waaaaay more expensive that piped gas and as there are really only 2 providers in the country it smacks of a cartel. But contact Calor about their lpg switching offers. I'm in the middle of switching from flogas myself. Its a bit of a PITA as they have re-certify tank location and swap out one tank for the other but its not as bad as it was years ago as nowadays they use the same company to manage their tanks so its a lift and swap in 1 go.

Calor are giving me 500L free, will match any gas in my flogas tank and price cap freeze for 2 years at 89c. They say is that its an upward freeze only, if prices drop i will get them too.

I signed up in December, so offers may be different now, but still worth an inquiry!

walterking · 16-01-2023 10:43pm

International gas prices have dropped further and now at mid 2021 levels.

As long as this continues and no reason it shouldn't, (china is overflowing with lpg) there will be serious price reductions by autumn in both gas and electricity.

You could/ should see electricity well under 30c/unit by September

phormium · 16-01-2023 10:59pm

@Scruff Already switched away from Calor few years back, can't see myself going back to them, it was painful both before and during switch!

@walterking Very interesting! So clearly not in my interest to fix for 12 months at this point in time, only catch will be I'll need to get gas before too long more, won't have enough to make it to autumn but I can just not fill it as I usually do and buy a smaller amount. Thanks for info!

phormium · 17-01-2023 1:55pm

Did a bit of going back through bills this morning out of curiosity to see what the price has been back along, anyway the fixed offer for 12 months said 90c incl tax which I take to be the vat.

Going back the last time I had a price as low as that was .91c in Dec 2018, April 18 was .83c, from 2018 to 2021 the price was .94c.

Looking at it that way then the .90c offering doesn't seem so bad! I'd have to go back to 2015 to see a price of below .70c, is it likely to get down to that by autumn? (Included vat on all old prices for comparison purposes with offered rate now)

I'll have to double check all those as looking at it the increases since Jan 21 have not been that massive at all! Oct 21 I paid 1.08c and last fill in April 22 was 1.18, will have to check my calculations!

PatthePiper · 19-02-2023 2:01pm

Got a quote from Flogas for a small barbers shop, commercial unit:

"Unit Rate Day per kWh 0.3599

Standing Charge - per day 0.9900

PSO Levy (MIC <30kVa) per month -25.99

Please note, these rates are quoted for 12 or 24 months. The new 12/24-month contract will be subject to an 'Early Exit Fee' of €1500/2500 should the contract be terminated during this Fixed Term and all other existing terms and conditions of supply remain in place. This discounted offer is subject to a Direct Debit Mandate remaining in place for the duration of the agreement. Should the Direct Debit be withdrawn, the meter will revert to the standard variable rate.

If you wish to proceed with your electricity to Flogas, all you need to do is...."

The Exit fee is close to the same amount as the shop's yearly electricity usage. I can understand an administration fee when moving account, but this is just extortionate and doesn't bear any resemblance to the cost involved.

walterking · 19-02-2023 2:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260907#Comment_120260907

That's ok for this moment in time, but gas prices have plummeted as have "next day" electricity prices.

These falls are starting to feed into rates and will continue to feed in. If there is stability in the market you will see electricity rates drop to about 20c-25c a unit.

Fixing at 35c (+vat) would be crazy.

Trampas · 21-02-2023 9:14pm

When I saw this came out it said to me prices were not going up much anymore. They were trying to strike knowing the fear people had of it going up again.

SMI · 31-03-2023 4:22pm

There seems to be a lot of decently informed opinions on this thread.

I'm looking to sign up for a domestic account, is the consensus still that this is a long term bad deal?

zell12 · 31-03-2023 4:35pm

Yes.

ablelocks · 19-04-2023 5:58pm

there's a fixed price of 30c per kwh for electricity only (special rate compared to normal fixed of 38c)

I'm currently paying 48.5c with Energia

standing charge is 275 with Energia but 380 with Flogas (0.75 v 1.04 per day)

going on last bill, Flogas would have been €130 approx cheaper than Engergia (1008 kwh units used)

I think it is worth switching now at the 30c rate - but is there anything i haven't considered?

yankinlk · 22-04-2023 10:45am

Cam to baords looking for opinions on flogas and this hit first... nearly pulled the trigger. Im not seeing any drops since this OP opened the thread though... im on a retention rate now from EI - 5% discount. When are these price drops coming?

JoeCat · 23-04-2023 11:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120506897#Comment_120506897

Same here. I was considering moving to Flogas, but I read this now and I am unsure. It is almost summer (if it ever is summer in Ireland) and I don't think that competitors have dropped prices?

yankinlk · 24-04-2023 10:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120513487#Comment_120513487

I went to bonkers - and found an EI offer (for existing cusotmer) that matches the "end result" ... 8 euro in the difference. 100 cash back (i like cash). The thing that sold it was a variable rate instead of fixed.

walterking · 24-04-2023 11:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120513487#Comment_120513487

A little research gave me a probable timeline of price drops as announce in May and applying from June and then again 3 months afterwards.

Its guesswork and just from extrapolating the various details.

Gas prices really only dropped at end of Dec and it was Feb before the drop was back to just 2 times the historic cost.

Business wholesale electricity dropped to 33c + pass through charges (about 11c) in January, 26c + 11c in Feb, 21c + 11c in March and likely to be 18c + 11c in April. Before you complain, variable business rates went to 78c + 11c in October, mid 60's in Nov and high 50's in Dec.

Hedging sees gas / electricity bought forward at 3 month, 6 month, 9month, 12 month and further. 3 month hedging is now at the January level, but 6 month is at Oct level.

I haven't a clue how much / what % is hedged at any one time and from what period, but wholesale forward prices started dropping in January and have continued to drop, so they should be feeding into domestic pricing soon and then you should consistent price drops over the year and at a wild guess, domestic unit price will be 25c-30c by late autumn.

But fixing in a falling market is not what I would do

Squiggle · 24-04-2023 1:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120514418#Comment_120514418

I don't disagree with your analysis but it remains to be seen whether retailers pass on the savings in input costs. Considering today's prices, 25-30c per kwh by Autumn would seem very optimistic.

rob316 · 24-04-2023 4:20pm

There is no prices falling, you can track commodities till the cows come home, until someone starts cutting prices to gain market share and spark a price war there is nothing for the consumer. The cartel look quite cosy at present so won't be risking any price war.