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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,658 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-64209221 The "300-500 deaths a week" figure is "roughly what you get if you multiply the number of people waiting long periods in A&E with the extra risk of dying estimated to come with those long waits (of between five and 12 hours)."



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm not sure why people keep trotting this desperate line out. There's a variety of issues plaguing European countries, from high oil prices to economic inequality to healthcare access, that aren't caused by Brexit but are made much more severe by it.

    For instance, if memory serves, 14% of nursing positions in the NHS are vacant. Imposing an arduous an unnecessary barrier between the UK and a group of mostly rich countries with lots of young, educated and eager potential recruits is the height of stupidity to me.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,218 ✭✭✭yagan


    Brexit is a slow bleed process. My otherhalf works with a specialist company that has used a British supplier for decades and initially Brexit meant a few shipping delays before settling into the new pattern. However the British supplier recently upped their prices massively, over 20% so the company heads travelled to Germany and have found a proven supplier to switch to for a lot less. Plus no more having to factor in currency volatility.

    So there's no sudden "aha, that's Brexit!" moment, it's obstacles followed by doors gently closing.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,525 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Which I suppose, to give the Daily Express readers their minimal due, this is perhaps how Brexit as a concept has been inadequately applied. There's a theoretical version of the UK that pivoted its economy to be more global & outreaching, becoming an enticing location within Europe while the rest of the continent struggled.

    Obviously the key flaw was always the fact the custodians of power, and chief architects of Brexit, never once possessed the foresight, talent or honesty to make this fantasy version of Britain become reality. Be it because the deprivation was the point (the Reese-Mogg disaster capitalists and their cronies), or the fact that this fantasy would have required more compromise and accommodation towards others than the English Nationalists could have ever stomached.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    What a load of over the top nonsense. It's Winter time and viruses are spreading. Of course ambulances and hospitals are busy.

    How come we didn't see the near collapse of the NHS has it's made out to be just a few months ago? Was it because it wasn't winter then?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    paging @Kermit.de.frog - would you like to comment on how the IT is wrong here?

    According to the report:

    Support for leaving the EU fell in every member state for which results are available across that time period, led by a drop of 11.8 percentage points in Finland, 10 percentage points in Slovenia, 8.8 in Austria, and 8.6 in Portugal. In the Netherlands the proportion of those saying they would vote to leave the EU fell by 8.4 percentage points in the period, while in Italy it dropped by 8.3 and in France 7.6, according to the data provided to The Irish Times by the European Social Survey, which has not been previously reported.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's obvious even without a survey. The anti EU crowd are currently running Italy but not a peep out of them for an Itexit.

    Orban for all his hot air is terrified of Magxit.

    LePen chickened out of Frexit and stepped down to returning to the franc and she has chickened out of that now too.

    It's almost like they were just saying it because they thought no one would ever be stupid enough to prove them wrong.

    None of them are gonna risk something that has an attrition rate of 1 Prime Minister a year once they get the big seat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern



    one can very esasily present the numbers brexit has caused , yearly there used to be about 9400 health care staff from eu startig to work now its 700.

    for medical stuff they say at the moment there is 37500 eu staff and without brexit it would be 41500

    numbers are form a medical journal in germany.

    those are clear numbers.

    presenting how many excess people are dying is a very iffy parameter for a brexit thread.

    why present an iffy data when there is clear data...



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't disagree. I'm just wondering aloud why some posters feel the need to come on here to play the "It's happening all over Europe so it can't be Brexit-related" card.

    That theoretical vision is an obsession among a tiny number of people. Anyone sincerely concerned about trade would have voted remain. The only way project Singapre-on-Thames works is if you obliterate large sections of the UK's economy.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    One thing in Sunak's favour is that he doesn't appear to be either a right wing English nationalist or a Europhobe (which is probably one of the main reasons other Brexiteers appear to hate him).



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    He is the only one of the last 5 PMs who is and was always an open Brexiter.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You're not wrong but I don't think that that's quite it. For a while now, we've been in Brexit reality as opposed to Brexit fantasyland. Sunak, a man who was fulminating about the EU as a teenager, was the "Remainer" candidate when running against Liz Truss last year so yeah, I think that feeds into it.

    I think the larger problem is the ungovernable nature of the party. Sunak is there only a few months so it hasn't manifested yet but he's got serious problems ahead. On Brexit, he either goes ahead and purges EU laws from the statue books and risks the economy or he doesn't and disappoints the extreme right of his party. Squaring this circle is exactly the sort of can the referendum was supposed to kick down the road. The reckoning point is almost here. There are people born during Gordon Brown's tenure that are now reaching their majority. Time to credibly pin the blame on Labour is running out.

    Sadly, I can't insert my favourite de Gaulle quote about running a country with 246 different cheese here. Alas.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Johnson is, was and ever shall be a "Johnsoner" - He couldn't give a toss one way or the other as long as he got to be Prime Minister and make money.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Of course.

    I was referring to the red bus and the claim of more money (including money that didn't actually exist) for the NHS.

    Edit: I don't know if anyone is planning to mention the two articles he wrote for the Telegraph but the pro-Leave one is clearly the one closer to his real beliefs than the reluctant remain one.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Wasn't he going to put hundreds of laws into a shredder ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Johnson only believes in Johnson. Brexit, bendy bananas and railing against his own NIP was all just about him.

    Sunak was a true believer.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    He would have if he were competent. The best asset British moderates have is Tory stupidity.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There was a bigger flaw, which is that even if people of talent, foresight etc were committed to delivering this Brexit, it was still not plausible. It rested on a Daily Mail-type caricature in which the EU is protectionist, isolationist and an unattractive location for investment. This is completely false; the EU is a very open economy, has the largest network of free trade deals the world has ever seen, and with the rest of the world has low tariff barriers - lower than the US does, for example.

    Brexit starts with the UK raising substantial barriers to its existing trade. The idea that it can do that and then turn itself into a more open, global, outreaching, enticing location than the EU is simply absurd to anyone with a realistic grasp of what the EU is.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    This. Brexit plus other shocks to the system don't just add up; they multiply.

    Imagine - and this is apt - you've shot yourself in the foot, so your mobility is significantly impaired. But you've got an automatic car which you can still drive with your good foot.

    Then, for unrelated reasons, and in no way as a result of your having shot yourself in the foot, your car breaks down.

    Your car breaking down is a problem in any circumstances. But if you hadn't just shot yourself in the foot, you could deal with the breakdown by walking to the bus stop and commuting to work; walking to the shops and buying groceries; etc. As it is, however, you can do none of these things. So the loss of your car affects you much more than it would otherwise have done.

    Brexit is like that. It directly harms the UK. And, on top of that direct harm, it leaves the UK less able to cope with or respond to, and therefore magnifies the harm resulting from other external shocks — the pandemic, the Ukraine war, the energy price shock, etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Tell me, does winter typically last more than a year? Because ambulance waiting times have been going up since about January 2021 and it has not been going down. It's almost like, as people has been warning, that it is a slow break down of the NHS and you are now seeing the results. The collapse of the NHS reminds me of the power situation in South Africa. It was a gradual build-up of loadshedding (rolling blackouts of various times) from 2007, but bonuses and corruption kept the energy supplier from upgrading the power plants. So now you have the scenario where you have 10 hours of no power in 24 at the moment.


    The NHS is the same. It has been strapped for cash since 2011 when austerity started. Add in cuts to Social Case and it puts pressure on the NHS to keep patients in hospital. Add in GP's being under pressure as more and more are expected of them to take pressure of the hospitals, it means they have less time for patients as well, which as some irony puts pressure on the Hospitals as people have to go to A&E because they cannot get a GP appointment. The slow boiling was absolutely turned up to high by Brexit which caused an even worse labour shortage. See below article for when the trouble started regarding ambulance waiting times.



    I cannot link the graphs in the article but all of them point to the same thing. It has been a gradual increase in waiting times/patients in A&E/waiting lists since 2011 but Covid and Brexit put those times into overdrive. Now caveat, Brexit alone is not responsible as others have pointed out we and other EU countries are dealing with their own issues, but Brexit has made it so much worse for the UK. Anyone trying to deny this may as well shout at the sun for rising everyday from the east because it makes about as much sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Nah, Johnson is a true believer in Brexit. He started it with his lies about EU regulations when he was reporting from Brussels. The remain article, as ancapailldorcha points out, was the article he didn't believe in but would use as his way to No.10. If Remain was predicted to win by 60%-40% he would have submitted that article, but with it being close he jumped in where he was most comfortable.


    Sunak is more dangerous. I mean who at 17/18 believes it is important to leave the EU and still has that belief at 42? Me and Sunak are about the same age and I had some shocking takes that I am extremely embarrassed about when I was 18. Experience and knowledge has taught me I was an idiot at that age so anyone still having the same beliefs now as when they were that old makes me wonder if they had to do any sort of critical thinking in their 20's. I suspect he has been growing up in a bubble of comfort where he has not been forced to think about life any different than when he was 10, hence he is a true believer who will not have his mind changed because he will be all right whatever happens.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I see we're back to Labour cancelling Brexit again:

    So, Labour blocked Brexit but we're still getting a bonfire of EU law? I don't really know what to say to be honest. I don't even know if this EU law bill will go ahead. It just seems to utterly disruptive and daft.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Sunak doesn't strike me as a fanatic though. He's a very unusual Brexiteer in that he doesn't share the traits of most of the ERG / UKIP types i.e. right wing English nationalism, xenophobia, Europhobia etc.

    He's admittedly a paradox (what is a multi-millionaire guy who has married into a billionaire family even doing as an MP?) but I don't associate him with the anti-EU fanatics for a moment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    He is a believer in the unregulated economy side of Brexit. The type who wants rid of the EU so the chlorinated chickens and untested drugs his buddies invest in can get to the UK.

    The kind who thinks the EU holds the UK back from becoming a second USA.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,526 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    So backwards. What made the USA, the USA, was inbound immigration from all over the world. Trouble is, the place is filled up and expensive now and everyone's at each other's throats for dwindling resources.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    For some it's a haven of low tax, lax employment laws and fek all regulation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,618 ✭✭✭rock22


    And the ability to massacre the native populations and steal their lands.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,762 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's nowhere near full up:

    The problems afflicting the US are the same as those many European countries are experiencing; inequality, climate change, absurd housing prices, the concentration of productive industries in a tiny few places and a lack of political will to do anything substantial about it.

    I linked on this forum before to an FT piece showing that the usual trend of people voting Tory as they age has died in the UK.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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