Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

If things work out as in 1921, without the transfer of debt then that is workable.

I am perfectly aware that it is not 1921. At that time, things were made much worse by the anti treaty lunatics trying to wreck the place.

Is this the United Ireland equivalent of a magic money tree?

Vague feelings that some third party will write a big juicy cheque to solve all the financial issues.

Unfortunately in the real world , fact will always trump feelings and there are no facts to back any of this up.

SF will face the same scrutiny as FF FG if they ignore the issue when they are in power.

Nothing tangible has been done to achieve either constitutional aim for 100 years by FF or FG* and I laid out one (the main reason IMO) reason why that is. Fear f losing the power. Jack Lynch blurted it out at the start of the most recent conflict, did he not.

*Pressure from a growing SF has forced our putative republican party FF to set up the Shared Island Unit and that is about the height of it.

You cannot on the one hand say that the future must be agreed and then lay out the terms yourself.

A proposal on a UI will come when all those proposing it sit down and agree it.

The Shared Ireland Initiative is probably now going to be quietly stood down by FG. FF got it's response from Unionism...several of the ministers of the present government have been threatened and warned and the cross border institutions of the GFA boycotted.There is still a significant rump of Unionism who don't want to 'share'.

Look at any of the major changes to society and you could say the same thing, women's rights, divorce, SSM etc etc.

Society and electorates change and are led to that change in many instances. That's been largely a good thing IMO

It does seem like a valid reason why FF and FG have done so little but I would add that they continue to get away with this approach because the public are not particularly interested anyways. Pretty obvious now that the SF surge has nothing to do with unity and the Shared Island Unit wasn't necessary to gain back ground.

SF should face further scrutiny if they continue to sit on their hands in government but they shouldn't be let off the hook for their negative effect on unity to date. The correlation between the increase in SF support and drop in unity support shouldn't be ignored.

So you blame the ordinary people?

Hmmm… so if “those with the power” can see that a UI would bankrupt the country given the set up of the economy in NI, where a huge segment of the population are employed by the Jurisdiction, then you would blame “those with the power” for driving the car over the cliff anyway!!!

Very strange attitude one would have to say.

No...ordinary people don't have power.

We have two constitutional imperatives in the lifetime of the state. Both were largely ignored in any effective way.

Partition is now the cause of a festering situation on this island again. It is a cyclical problem because it was wholly wrong to begin with.

They were not asked if they wanted a Shared Island Initiative (which is a Selected Voices Only Initiative, in truth) so it wasn't the 'democratic will' to begin with.

To be a United Ireland is a democratic constitutional aim though.

I definitely would but there is no barrier to any party setting out their vision and the associated estimated costs for various scenarios around pensions etc. Without doubt SF have chosen to ignore the economics of unity. Doesn't exactly instill confidence in the project for those on the fence.

Judging from polls a UI is not conceivable now, probably not for at least another 10 years at earliest (providing Scotland does not leave the UK) so I see why politicians are not wasting too much time talking about it.

Also economics is extremely dynamic. The cost of unification in 2023 would be competently different to what it will be in 2033. I keep hearing NI runs a deficit of about £12bn. How do we know what this will be in 10 years time. Look how quick the Souths economy changed in the boom years. The NIP coupled with the south lifting the Norths economy up at the moment means along with London it is the best performing part of the UK. The all Ireland economy and the fact NI still has access to Europe will probably continue to improve it in the decade ahead.

Those calling for unity on here are hilarious. They want a border poll now, but they are not prepared to put forward any rationale or logic for how a united Ireland would work. Some of the stuff they put forward on what might appear to them to be minor issues - Queens will just have to accept the NFQ - betrays a complete lack of understanding of how the public service works and how this is not 1921, nor even 1991 when West Germany took over East Germany - Irish unity could be nothing like that.

Then, having spluttered their way to incoherence over what ideas they might have, they have the brazen audacity to criticise the government for not producing a plan for a united Ireland that nobody is actually looking for, while at the same time, excusing their political comrades in Sinn Fein for their failure to have even one dim lightbulb moment about how it might work.

It is quite unbelievable.

OK, since you criticise other people for lack of explanation, what exactly is the problem with Queens accepting the NFQ? There is already a mapping all its qualifications into the NFQ, they have lots of applicants with Leaving Certs already. Non issue.

The issues with Peace Walls and bonfires have diminished inordinately since the Anglo Irish Agreement and the pursuit of equality and parity of esteem.

There are those on the island whose preference is to ignore these issues and to throw their hands in the air in frustration.

Personally I believe that these issues (on both sides) can be further tackled through education and the eradication of poverty and deprivation. (Just look at the circumstances in the problem areas0.

It won't fully eradicate the problems of sectarianism but it will go a long way to minimising them. We have seen the difficulty belligerent loyalism/Unionism has bringing people onto the streets to be violent or sustaining any violence that could destabilise.

And I will say it again, the last thing the UK will want on hand over is a destabilised province dragging them in again, they will be the most up for ensuring the transition has little to no bounce back for them. It will therefore be as much an 'investment' for them as it will be for an Irish government. All the stakeholders will sell it as an 'investment' in the future.

That is incorrect. There have been a series of Future Ireland events which will continue.

The 'problem' is the FF/FG alliance is trying desperately to stall any momentum. Will they succeed? I don't think so. If Unionism gets it way on the Protocol or if they continue to act undemocratically more and more are going to want the conversation to begin and a plan/proposal formulated. That will include Britain, who are headed there anyway IMO.

Talk to me about polling when that happens. It will only be relevant then.

Not surprised you diminish it really. It's to be expected, Unionists Lundy anyone taking part, partitionists/anti UIers try to ignore or diminish it.

Still wrong to say that 'nobody is selling it'.

Where to start?

It took the guts of ten years to put together our own NFQ and bring all Irish institutions under its wing. There were arguments and difficulties over the position of the then institutes of technology for example. Negotiating the GFA was arguably easier than any agreement over quality assurance in higher education. You can be certain that Queens will come to the table with a position that the NFQ needs to change to adjust to them and then the fun begins.

You chose to ignore it...didn't even mention it and claimed nobody was doing anything. That's on you.

You cannot force people to take part in these discussions and IF had a good cross section of people giving their views which was far from an echo chamber. The selective Shared Island initiative however did try to create an exclusive echo chamber. What the government party that set it up got in return was threats and intimidation from those who are pretending to be democrats. The other main party of government had their initiative (applauding the DUP at their annual conference) thrown back in their faces too with Varadkar and Coveney the subject of threats.

Doesn't diminish the fact you were wrong.

Now you need to reseasrch the many many public meetings SF have organised north and south and online, AFAIK they have been heavily attended too

.

Your ignorance oif what is happening on the ground is revealing tbh. Not bothered what you think of these events (I can guess) but you are wholly and abjectly wrong on the facts.

If they have a case that it should be changed, then that case can be examined and it can be changed as required. Such things are not urgent.

Nobody I have seen yet has a definite idea of the cost, if there is to be one, when all is added and subtracted. Every estimate has been disputed and questioned and looked at from differing angles. I am quite happy that there may never be a quantifiable 'cost' or indeed 'benefit'.

Can you point to any evidence you have that these public meetings that SF have been holding for some time are 'fundraisers'? I don't think you'll be able to.

The fact is, the poster was wrong again to say what they did, regardless of what you or he thinks of these meetings.