A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Isn't this the same thing the Bank of England did recently with Gilts to avoid the pension market from collapsing?

eh we are midway through January hardly a win for the "no recession going to happen" crew for 2023 give it time.

There has been a slight uplift in mood due to the spend over the xmas, what is not being highlighted is that even do more money was spent in the economies during this period that there was actually less bought but it cost more to buy less. That will not continue. Lets see what a full Q1 and Q2 of 2023 looks like. As it is plain to see wages globally have come no where near the levels of inflation seen over the last 18 months and if it was all good in the hood we wouldn't be looking at another 1% interest rate rise between now and the end of March. Not saying your wrong but most indicators are still pointing toward the big 3 going into a recession - China, US and the EU

Its our local economies that are going to get battered, the cost of living crisis is only beginning. Food continues to explode in price and energy will remain high while providers reduce contract discounts. The pent up demand from the pandemic is gone and savings have dwindled, I see a huge drop in consumer confidence and spending this year.

Will we hit an actual recession? I'm not sure about Ireland as our GDP is still largely reliant on MNCs who still have strong revenue and employment despite recent cuts.

Are they really struggling though? META has their problems but others have just over hired on the back of the pandemic.

As I said the situation in on the ground is the worry I feel, hospitality could be in big trouble, retail the same. I'm talking to people in these areas and the performance hasn't been what they expected over christmas which is alarming as it was the first normal restriction free christmas in 3 years.

People waiting for a financial crisis or meltdown will be sorely disappointed, there just isn't the level of toxic debt out there like 2008. I can't see someone big like META falling either.

Its all here globally for what's been going on since late 2021. Already in 2023 alone nearly 25k workers lost there jobs within the tech companies globally You only have to look at the share prices of the companies that own the really big brands like facebook, twitter, microsoft. etc. If these guys are shedding jobs and losing share prices you can be sure their predicted profitability for 2023 is in doubt. Then add in what your talking about a lot of indigenous companies will hit the wall the price of energy alone will kick a lot of them too much and they will have to submit after a lot of them being in a zombie state since the covid payments.. I dont see a meltdown like last time it will be a case that peoples wage simply cannot afford the new prices that are awash through all levels of society from the 5 euro coffee to the million Euro house that no one seems to bat an eyelid at these days. Its going to take a decade for wages to catch up.

Buy a solid fuel stanley superstar range on donedeal it'll heat the whole house, all you'll need is some turbary rights or a relation that can legally sell you some turf - way cheaper and you can live the high life then, by a merc on PCP and put in new lino in the house.

There just isnt the same level of toxic debt??

You're looking in the wrong place. Bonds are rotten to the core, hollowed out. Below water. What are central banks balance sheets stuffed with? Sovereign bonds.

Its a debt crisis on a scale that you clearly cannot fathom.

It is what is hidden from view that could pose the greatest risk. Unreal to think that all of these things are just floating around somewhere and nobody knows who is sitting on them.

We saw it with the Scandanavian energy company who had a Lehman's moment which could of led to Europe's energy market collapsing. UK pension crisis where 90% would of been wiped out in 24 hours. Just little things like energy spikes and a budget announcement set them off.

No wonder Warren Buffett describes them as " weapons of mass destruction "

An explainer about the potential risks from the BIS report.

India's refineries are doing a roaring trade

That's not the same as a ticking time bomb that 2008 was. You had the entire banking system invested in junk loans been packaged as AAA securities by investment banks. Jobs, deposits, pensions, assets wiped out overnight.

I think so many are missing what this recession will mean, it'll be likely a fall back to pre covid levels. Is that really a recession, its more of a correction IMO.

That was for December 2022 imagine prices dropping in December for xmas. Q1 and Q2 in 2023 will see this continue.

Yeah well its the same with anything price flies up and sticky on the way down. Having said that I think there will be some acceleration if companies remain selling at the currently overly high and unaffordable price point their business will soon come under pressure due to lack of sales. So I think we may see it come down quicker then expected. Germanys CPI MoM has come down 0.8% in December as well. I can see Q1 2023 being horrible for a lot of businesses unless they start feeding savings they are making onto the end customer.

The point was made that although xmas 2022 was better then xmas 2021 with regards to sales. The reason for it was the overly high prices and the fact that there was 4% less bought in the Irish ecconomy over the xmas period seems to have passed by without much of a mention.

Yanks will not be happy with this

Ita certainly not the same, no. Central Banks are technically insolvent and you're worried about commercial banks....

2008 was simply a property wheeze gone wrong, that infected other parts of the system. The bond market is THE market, all else is just a sideshow.