Russia - threadbanned users in OP

"This war is really the west's fault..." (despite Russia being the ones who invaded Ukraine)

"I'm anti-war. That's why I think NATO should stop giving Ukraine weapons, perpetuating this dreadful conflict..." (No suggestion that Russia simply withdraw from Ukraine instead. 😐️)

"As bad as this war is - the pounding of civilian infrastructure and the targeted killing and deportation of innocent civilians by Russian forces... what I want to talk about for some reason is how America invaded Iraq in 2003."

And many more attempts to divert, confuse and obfuscate the issue at hand.

This is somewhat reassuring, especially the "no time lost" aspect -

It's hard to see that clearly through the fog of war, and estimates will vary wildly depending on the source, but conservative estimates put Russian casualties at at least 100,000 (killed/wounded), and possibly even closer to 500,000. It would be naïve to think that Ukraine hasn't been taking similarly-heavy casualties, but where the difference is coming is in the hardware. Russia have lost so many tanks, aircraft, APCs and artillery pieces since their invasion began, whereas Ukraine have been getting a lot of weaponry and training from the West, while also having captured Russian stuff added to its arsenal. In order to advance its aims, Russia will either need to build or buy, and train those conscripts in how to use it. The numbers thing isn't going to really work for Russia. It doesn't have a bottomless pit of men to draw from. It has a population of close to 150 million, and obviously not all of those are going to be men of military age, and even of that demographic, around 1 million have fled. What Russia is then left with is an increasingly unprofessional army of conscripts whose commitment to the cause is going to be in question.

I see the US are recommending that Ukraine hold off on further offensives until they get more training. Am I the only one sceptical about this? Ukraine have shown competence in conducting offensives and there is no sign they would go with mindless human wave attacks.

Could the US be worried that the Russians could completely collapse soon, which would be messy. They may prefer a negotiated settlement rather than military defeat.

Seems you’re still salty about being wrong the other night re Germany bbc news report. Sad! Well at least you seen my rant, you might have learnt something this time.

Putin seems to regard this war as a crusade and my feeling is that any acceptance of a negotiated settlement would really serve as a pause to rebuild and try again. On the other hand, Ukraine would sure want a clause in the settlement that essentially makes it impossible or at least catastrophic for Russia to invade again (e.g. admission into NATO), and that's a term Putin would really struggle to accept.

It seems that Russia and Ukraine remain too far apart in their aims to come to a negotiated settlement. One side or both may become much more amenable to a compromise if or when they assess that victory by force would be impossible.

This was clear from the moment Putin invaded. Non-proliferation should be out the window, given the US and UK betrayal and hoodwinking of ukraine in order to get them to disarm, and the incredible cost to Ukraine of that. Trump showed the US can not be relied on for a second. Australia and NZ are in a NATO like treaty with the US called the ANZUS treaty. Trump made it clear it is illusory, despite Australia being the US's most steadfast millitary partner, having sent support for every major foreign military misadventure they have engaged in, from Vietnam onwards.

Australia and Taiwan both need nuclear deterents. They should join forces and develop a nuclear and missile capability in Australia. I have some disquieting thoughts that maybe China did nothing to disuade North Korea because it wanted it's own nuclear Wagner group.

If any NATO member like Hungary or Turkey make waves or stupid demands to keep Ukraine out of NATO, Ukraine should just say fine by us, we'll develop nuclear weapons instead. They would have no problem doing so technically, having been responsible for at least 40% of the USSRs military production and research.

Cheers. Some good figures there.

However the 5-1 ratio just seems to stem from some random post on Twitter. That might be true on one part of the front(Bakhmut?) but highly unlikely to extend across the entire front. For example in Kreminna it is UA that are on the attack and they are up against some of Russia's best troops that were evacuated from Kherson. There were plenty of reports from the Kherson front saying that the Russians were well drilled and were imposing heavy loses on the UA. Ultimately they had to withdraw due to logistic issues.

Obtuse or what? Churchill wasn't a leader of any country these last 60 years. If I had meant Churchill, I'd have had to extend that time to 75 years - duh!

I'm Australian, not a pom.

True enough, could be just trying to confuse the Russians. I’d be surprised if the Ukrainians weren’t preparing for some offensive soon with the Russians weak and their morale low.

If the anti Russian countries stick together Germany cannot pressure them all to stop.

Ukraine has had very limited success against well defended positions - not much different to the Russians once they lost their massive artillery advantage.

I am not trying to take anything away from Ukraine. What they have done with the resources they have is incredible. I am making the case for the need for mech infantry.

Take their 3 big wins - battle fro Kiev and the counter attack in Kharkiv and Kherson.

Kiev - the Russian attack wasn't expecting to meet such resistance and had to withdraw. More a defensive action than an attack so doesn't really count.

Kharkiv - Russia moved far too many soldiers from Kharkiv to Kherson. Reports that Russians were outnumbered 10-1 in some areas. More down to strategic error on the Russian side, aided by misinformation from the Ukrainias, than out manuvering by the UA on the battlefield.

Kherson - The Ukrainians found it hard to make much progress here despite limited supplies on the Russian side due to damage to the bridges. Ultimately the Russians had to withdraw but that was mainly down to logistics.

They both are preparing for major offensives, zaporizhzhia surely must be a major target for them, if they had that they can have a straight line to Luhansk and the Dneiper on the left protection.

Ukraine aren't making much progress while using the successful Ukrainian taking the defense of Kiev ,and retaking karkhiv, Kherson and down playing them.

Another one of these the Ukrainan are going ok but not really ..