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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The sooner fossil fuels are removed from EU energy markets, the better. they are making a mess of energy pricing due to the volatility of global fossil fuel markets. Its a farce how much they are screwing up the energy market.

    Things will be a lot more stable once fossil fuels are removed from the equation



  • Registered Users Posts: 51,886 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    The world doesn't revolve around reports. There like surveys in that you can hold one and make them suit whatever argument you want.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    May I suggest you read your own propaganda and look into the background of your own sources. You recently quoted skeptical science (SS for short)

    The picture below of John Cook of 97% fame was found on their own web-site and was produced by their OWN team using photoshop. It's a play on the SS (hilarious haha) . . . here is the thing, rather than delete the embarrassing files when caught, they moved them to a folder called a11g0n3


    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You, like all Irish greens, really need to make up your mind as to whether you see climate change as global or just something.Ireland is going to sort single handed by wrecking her economy.

    The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021 - 2030 is projecting an increase of 14% in global meat consumption by 2030. 30% in Africa, 18% in the Asia and Pacific region, 12% in the Latin American region, 9% in North America and even 0.4% in Europe.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭crisco10


    That's exactly how I was saying it works.

    The issue is that the next expensive gas plants are quite expensive at that point in the mix. The aghada, and poolbegs of this world are relatively cheap combined cycle gas plants. But the peakers are open cycle, less efficient, and more expensive, by avoiding them setting the SMP, we are reducing the price per kWh across the mix.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    For the foreseeable future without fossil fuels it would leaves electricity charges much cheaper alright.

    But that would only be because for long periods there would be in no electricity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It doesn`t matter how efficient the a plant is.

    The last plant to fill the demand sets the wholesale price. The percentage of the source being used in the overall generation mix from that plant does not make one iota of difference regardless of how low that percentage is. It still determines the wholesale price.

    The bizarre situation under the marginal pricing policy is that if you want cheap electricity then your only way of achieving that would be to use no other fossil fuel other than the cheapest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭crisco10


    Efficiency matters to the price of the electricity it bids into the market. Less efficient means higher price. Means if its called on as the last plant, the SMP will be higher.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Aka "I disagree with it therefore it must be wrong but I don't have any evidence to support that"



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The efficiency of the plant has little or nothing to do with the wholesale price of the last, (and most expensive), source into the generation mix. That source determines the wholesale price.

    No matter how efficient the plant providing that source is, it will still have to cover it`s overheads plus it`s profit. Even if it is only supplying 1% of the overall mix, then that is the wholesale market price.

    If the E.U.wished to do anything about that then why did they not decouple gas from the marginal pricing policy At least it would have meant the price being set by the next lowest priced fossil fuel rather than leaving it as it is which just disproportionately favors renewable companies who are financially the main beneficiaries and does nothing for the consumer ?

    Renewables under the marginal pricing policy have not resulted in the consumer getting as much as a red cent in benefit from electricity prices, and never will. Press releases and lazy media just parroting what they are being told does not change that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭crisco10


    I think your missing my point, I am talking about that exact last, most expensive, plant thru the gate. If it is less efficient, it will bid a higher price which will then become the SMP. Thus bringing up the electricity price across the board.

    And having more plant with a lower bid in price will reduce our exposure to those expensive plants. The inefficient plants will burn more fuel per kWh than the more efficient ones lower down the order.



  • Registered Users Posts: 51,886 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    I could pluck evidence just like theirs from a part of my anatomy anytime.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Are you not perhaps missing the point that with the most expensive component being the one that sets the wholesale price, even if that component only makes up 1% of the overall total, higher efficiency cost savings would be negligible as the operating costs plus the providers profit margin for the day would be the same as if that plant was using 5 times as much to generate.

    Is it not time that greens held their hands up and admitted that renewables have not saved the consumer a cent in charges under the marginal pricing policy. If the E.U. or greens were interested in lowering electricity costs then they should be calling for the scrapping of that policy. Or at the very least, decoupling gas rather than persisting with this farce of pretending that these puff pieces from renewable companies, who are the main financial beneficiaries, are nothing other than propaganda aimed at keeping the good times rolling for them while the consumer and the economy suffers. ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭crisco10


    OK think I get what you are saying now. The whole issue with the SMP concept is that a generator with a small impact on Kwh provided has a large impact on price. So that 1% generator is very impactful, and their inefficiencies also extend to lack of economies of scale due to being smaller and generally spreading fixed costs across a smaller annual energy production.

    Re your second point, there is more literature supporting the concept that renewables save money in SMP environment (not just the recent piece from WEI). For example, there was a study done by Queens in Belfast in 2017 that had similar findings.

    It's also a situation that IS changing, the latest RESS auctions have the potential to have negative payments when wholesale price is high. (Which can be seen in the PsO decision for this year). So the wrinkle that is being caused by SMP is going to be eroded as those projects start to get to the end of their 15 year REFiT contract as we progress thru the next 5 to 10 years. (The last refit 2 projects contract will finish in about 2032. But the majority will be in the late 20's).



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Won’t we see a repeat of the recent events where a negative price meant over 3GW of wind was just switched off by the operator?

    As you point out, we are still years away from wind providing actual savings for consumers though.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭crisco10


    Well no. Assuming you mean wind farm operator (and not grid operator), that would be bad business to turn off.

    The negative payment is only associated with the surplus due to high electricity price. I.e. If the market pays a RESS windfarm 100 /Mwh, but their RESS cfd is 70/MWh, then the negative payment is just repaying the 30/Mwh delta. So if they turned off the wind farm, they'd be missing out on the 70/MWh. Which doesn't make sense.


    And your second paragraph is a sweeping generalisation of what I said, that also happens to be incorrect. The change around negative payments doesn't preclude the previously discussed savings around reduction in SMP being realised previously, now or tomorrow. The negative payments simply open the door for renewable generation to actually get paid less than the going rate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭crisco10


    ...but we're talking about the Irish electricity market, with its particular market set up...they're UK wind farms.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 44 LaoisWeather


    Stable you say?

    Wind and solar are anything but stable sources of energy. A quick glance at the Eirgrid Dashboard shows that:

    6.1% Whopee!



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What I am saying is very simple.

    The only people getting any benefit from the marginal pricing policy are those who own and operate renewable energy sources. If, as is claimed, they can be generated much cheaper than any other source then the profit margins are much greater. That is not a "wrinkle" that even according to you is going to be changed any time soon by this pricing policy

    Rather than talk about peaker plant efficiencies that would have little or no difference, as I have asked a number of times, why will the E.U., at a minimum, not decouple gas from the marginal pricing policy, and why will the greens not call for this rather than parroting puff pieces by wind generating companies in particular, that have not made a red cents difference in reducing the price of electricity and never will under this policy ?

    As we saw recently in the U.K. the chances of negative payments is slim. If the figure between their strike price and the wholesale price is less than their generation costs and their strike price there would still be a margin in it for them to supply. If the figure is greater then they will simply not supply. Fair enough you may say that we cannot expect them to supply at a loss, but the strike price is the price they agreed to supply at, so really they are getting jam on both sides. First shot at getting their produce accepted and thus maximising their profits, as well as no onus on them to supply when their is no profit in it for them. That is not a contract, it`s an open ended licence to make money at a cost to both the consumer and the economy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 44 LaoisWeather


    And they'll stand over that all day long because it's their ideology. They don't care about the ramifications on the consumer or the wider economy.

    Through policy they are steering everyone towards one source of energy - electricity.

    Heating, cooking, driving is going to be all done from electricity according to their plan. You are then held over a barrel as you will have only one source for everything you need. Another behemoth monopoly in the making.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    And solar panels don't work at night :o


    Wind is predictable and our grid is flexible. (Wind isn't going to go offline for 12 years and fuel embargoes won't affect what's already installed )

    We have spinning inertia in the large generators and soon the synchronous compensators. Then there's batteries and Turlough Hill and by next year we'll have gas turbines that can spin up in six minutes from a cold start. There's also demand shedding too. Again our grid is flexible.


    The context of this graph is that the maximum amount of wind and solar and batteries and interconnectors we can take at the moment is 75%. When we can take 95% we will be able to accept more wind.

    The big trick is to install surplus wind and solar. Twice as many turbines running at 50% output means you'll need less storage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    The big trick is to install surplus wind and solar. Twice as many turbines running at 50% output means you'll need less storage.
    

    That is not a trick, it is economic insanity. Over the course of a year in Ireland solar capacity factor in Ireland is 11% (figure taken by Eirgrid from Germany - note Ireland is further North), onshore turbines is 25%, offshore is estimated ~35%. Overbuilding by a factor of 3 means there are times when is so much generation it must be dumped and there are times like that week in December 2022 when it is dark and freezing with record consumption where there is absolutely nothing produced and we are left depending on a backup system that while not being used has to be maintained for just such an eventuality. Record peak demand when unreliable energy generation failed totally, how that did not make the headlines? I'm sure though, it has been noted, whether it will be acted on is another matter.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭Jarhead_Tendler


    She probably has more sense than anybody in the Green Party



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Ireland is colder and has longer days in summer so there's gains compared to Germany too.

    Solar production is pretty much March - September here. So really it's closer to 20% during those months.

    And because solar doesn't work at night it's more like 30-40% during summer days. And it delivers during peak daily demand so it's displacing peaking plant. And it's cheap.

    Offshore was measured at 54%, averaged over 5 years at Hywind. Other large offshore wind farms in good locations with large turbines are tending towards 50% too.


    The way to avoid to dumping is to have another use for the surplus power like export, storage, hydrogen etc.

    As I keep reminding everyone we can use some gas till 2050 so a few weeks isn't a problem any time soon. And with surplus electricity there is no reason why that gas shouldn't shouldn't have more hydrogen and less methane over time. And then we could store months worth of hydrogen in gas wells with capital costs of ~ €1Bn (the €800m Dutch scheme has way higher energy flows than we'd need)


    Next year we will have hydrogen ready gas turbines that can get up and running from a cold start in 6 minutes at a capital cost of €1.25/watt. Solar is cheaper and doesn't use fuel, all part of a balanced grid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Ask Aussies how solar and wind worked out for them. The more of those you have the bigger instability of the grid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭ps200306


    "The way to avoid to dumping is to have another use for the surplus power like export, storage, hydrogen etc."

    There is no way to have excess generation without wastage.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    China expects to add 70 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power generation this year, up from 40 GW of capacity from coal installed in 2022, a report from the power sector’s group, China Electricity Council, showed.

    But but we need to lead by example and hopefully Chinese will notice.😱





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