Maximum snow depth possible

bazlers · 23-01-2023 2:40pm #1

Hi guys,

Looking at the snow depths achieved in Buffalo before Christmas what would be the chances of Ireland achieving such remarkable statistics if everything fell into place or would it be possible?

If a severe heavy laden low pressure system worked its way up the irish sea and into Ireland and stalled for 24 hrs or more againt bitterly north to north east winds. It then drifted away to introduce streamers coming in off the irish sea. Basically a storm Emma times 5 scenario.

Could something of that magnitude ever occur

LaoisWeather · 23-01-2023 4:58pm

Our record at non mountain stations is 45cm recorded at Casement on New Year's Eve 1962 during an very cold winter. Not sure if this was beaten by The Beast from The East in 2018, but it was a close run thing then, especially in the southeast.

Also, 45cm would be level snow - not blown into drifts by the wind.

I'd say 45cm has been exceeded in the past but just not where there was an official station to measure it as our network of stations was quite poor. Computerised stations (ACS) coverage has increased a good bit in recent years, but these automatic stations don't/can't measure snow depth as far as I'm aware.

This means that human observers are required to literally "observe" or measure snowfall when it occurs at a climate/synoptic station. With automation of these happening at a rapid pace, it seems the human observer is being gradually removed from the process and getting reliable snow depth measurements is going to be a difficult task in the future.

No doubt the role of Social Media will fill the gap, but how reliable will that be? Will someone like xXXLaney4MarkForeverXXx from north Wexford on Facebook with a photo grab our next national snow depth record?

nacho libre · 23-01-2023 5:29pm

If Anecdotal evidence could be believed 45 cm was greatly exceeded in 1917 and 1933. The ideal scenario for me would be a potent northerly for a week with a succession of polar lows moving down giving heavy snow widely across the nation, then the Atlantic would try to take over but the system stalls for three days giving white out conditions for all three days, then a bitter North easterly would take over giving heavy snow in the east, but dry in the west - I would need a break to dig myself out from the snow. After a week the Atlantic would be beaten again but not before another snow storm. By that stage my love of snow might even be challenged. Ha!

bazlers · 23-01-2023 8:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147292#Comment_120147292

Love it... we would need everything to fall perfectly and possibly a volcanic eruption to cool things ; ) Maybe Katla might produce something special. Be alot of suffering in Iceland for me to get a bit of snow though....

sryanbruen · 23-01-2023 8:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147160#Comment_120147160

Naas and Bunclody (Wexford) also had 45cm in 2018. Glenmacnass (Wicklow) had 69cm but that's higher ground.

Flinty997 · 23-01-2023 8:18pm

2018 wasn't a patch on 1982 for me. No comparison.

ZX7R · 23-01-2023 8:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058280875/maximum-snow-depth-possible

Are you thinking a single snowfall event, or build up of multiple falls

sryanbruen · 23-01-2023 8:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147946#Comment_120147946

So because it wasn't a patch on 1982 in your backyard means it was the same for the entire country? P.s. the depth data from 1982 is very limited. The highest we have officially is 26cm at Dublin Airport.

They do have a comparison, maybe not your backyard but nationally and statistically speaking they do. They were both snowstorms that brought deep drifting snow to the south and east of the country. Difference was in 1982 the snowstorm was succeeded by a big freeze with higher pressure, crisp sunshine and severe frosts whilst in 2018 Storm Emma undercut and successfully brought milder conditions in the days after but for many there was still snow on the ground for a while regardless.

Flinty997 · 23-01-2023 9:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120148009#Comment_120148009

2018 wasn't a patch on 1982.... for me.....

Flinty997 · 23-01-2023 9:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147292#Comment_120147292

My old man used to say 1947 was the worst he remembered.

sryanbruen · 24-01-2023 12:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120148314#Comment_120148314

Yeah and then went onto say no comparison, which there is as it's the most recent event of its kind. But anyway doesn't matter.

Flinty997 · 24-01-2023 12:57am

:(

bazlers · 24-01-2023 7:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147957#Comment_120147957

It would be something else if it was a single snowfall that would be unbelieveable, but to get 5ft plus of level snow that would be roughly be 5" of rain.

I dont think we could sustain that sort of energy to dump it all as snow as it hit colder air over Iand. I could be wrong. Maybe if it stalled for 36hrs or more and have a battleground scenario but even then i would think it would peter out quickly.

Multiple events would be required to achieve 5ft plus of snow i would think.

If we were to get this in late December or early January it would be something else.

We can but dream...or move to buffalo ; )

Flinty997 · 24-01-2023 8:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120149212#Comment_120149212

1947 was unusual in that it was sustained for so long with multiple falls and low temps for a long period.

The freeze was caused by an anti-cyclone which had its centre located over Norway and Sweden and brought temperatures of -14°C, five major blizzards and snowdrifts of 12 to 20 feet.

"...The temperature did not rise above 5°C at the Dublin Airport weather station between 22 January and 7 March, an exceptional weather event report from Met Éireann states.

"Different ares of the country experienced snow at various times throughout the period of severe cold", with the most notable falls occurring on 2, 8, 21 and 25 February and 4 March, the report says...."

https://www.irishpost.com/news/on-this-day-the-big-freeze-of-1947-begins-228301

Gonzo · 24-01-2023 10:37am

While 1982 and 2018 are both amazing events, it was 1982 that led the way with snow depths here in Meath. Both events are very different tho so no real way of knowing the actual snow depth because the snow in 2018 was more flat and less drifting while 1982 was a proper blizzard with snow drifts over cars and lorries which were blocked on roads. I was only 6 by then but remember going for a walk with my dad and we were walking through the drifts and it was only then dad realized there were cars underneath us! If 1982 had no drifting things may have looked a bit more normal and the actual snow depth may appear less than it did in reality.

However despite all this I was too young to properly enjoy 1982, 2018 was great but a little too late into the season so December 2010 still stands as my favourite snow event of all time.

Day Lewin · 24-01-2023 10:45am

I remember 1982...in fact it is unforgettable.

At Tara St station, the railway track was completely filled in with snow from platform to platform.

Cars were abandoned all along the Naas Rd, and then the ground froze; when they finally sent in JCBs and diggers etc to clear the snow, lots of the cars were so buried that they were stove in by the machines, who simply didn't see them.

TheMilkyPirate · 24-01-2023 11:28am

I put a ruler in the flat snow in my front garden after storm Emma and it dissappeared a good bit I'd guess close to 40cm. I'll never see that again I don't think. Was pretty much the perfect storm here in South Wexford.

Flinty997 · 24-01-2023 1:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120149820#Comment_120149820

I remember the army trucks delivering food and fuel to the shops and garages. Which we then had to queue to get. They also provided a local bus service using their trucks. With all the 4x4 and equipment these day there wouldn't be the same issues. But like you I remember the drifts being far higher than in 1982.

Still it wouldn't be patch on something Buffalo. I think they got 51 inches of snow in one event.

ZX7R · 24-01-2023 1:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120149212#Comment_120149212

I find it a very interesting to be honest, 82 was definitely the largest snow fall for me.

I decided to do a bit of investigation about snowfall here where I live now in Poland.

This is Regional, 1979 was the largest fall of snow in a single dumping it was 92cm beating the previous record two days earlier of 70cm by the end of that cold spell accumulated depths of 2 meters and deeper were observed.

My first winter here 2020 turned out to the coldest in 20 years snow never melted it just kept growing and growing over the winter .

First snow fell the end of November and the Last the start of March.

Also the first time experiencing -20

Furze99 · 24-01-2023 1:11pm

2018 in SE was very heavy fall, deepest we've seen here. Perversely because it was so deep, the roads were actually cleared more quickly as the council was obliged to pay local agriculture contractors to do the work.

monkeybutter · 24-01-2023 3:51pm

its 63 all the way lads, 82 and the beast from the east are mere babys in comparison

sryanbruen · 30-01-2023 1:05pm

Been trying to build a database of all Dublin weather events for the past two years as it is where I live and it is easiest to find. Snow events form a big part of this research and I've been able to find 9am snow depth data for Dublin Airport since 1947 and Casement Aerodrome since 1962. The graph below shows the *maximum snow depth observed in County Dublin for every Nov-Apr and the year in the graph is of the Jan-Apr like 2011 = winter 2010/11 for example.

*In many cases, these are 9am readings rather than the actual maximum depth observed. 9am is the climatological standard for historical consistency. Some events such as 2010, 1982, 1979 and 1963 as well as recent years I've been able to give maximum depth as Met have provided them publicly but others I cannot at this moment in time.

As mentioned, 45cm on 31 December 1962 at Casement is the biggest snow depth observed at an Irish synoptic station to date. Other big Dublin events with more than 20cm depth:

25 Dec 2010 27cm

31 Dec 1978 26cm

09 Jan 1982 25cm

02 Mar 2018 23cm

02 Feb 1947 23cm

In terms of month by month records:

November - 21 Nov 1977 12cm

December - 31 Dec 1962 45cm

January - 09 Jan 1982 25cm

February - 02 Feb 1947 23cm

March - 02 Mar 2018 23cm

April - 14 Apr 1999 6cm

May - 04 May 1979 1cm

Thought this might be of interest to this thread with ponders about what snow depths are possible. What makes 2010 unique compared to the other big snow events is that 2010 was from Irish Sea streamers with a light wind whilst the others had a strong easterly wind and drifting.

Supercell · 30-01-2023 1:41pm

@sryanbruen Thanks for sharing that data. I now understand why my perception is that winters are not what they used to be - i grew up in the '77 - '87 period as a child and teenager and that looks to have been an outlier in the series. Brilliant work.

Gonzo · 30-01-2023 6:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120177488#Comment_120177488

similar situation here, grew up to 1991 as a child/teenager and back then we did not realise how lucky we were to get proper snowfalls almost every winter. 1991 marked the end with a wonderful snowstorm and freeze up during the February. Little did I know then that February 1991 was the end of it with most winters ever since completely snowless bar a couple of exceptions such as 2000, 2009,2010 and 2018. I think Dublin also had 1996 but we missed out completely in Meath probably due to the IOM Shadow.

sryanbruen · 30-01-2023 6:53pm

Yeah there was a very cold New Year 1996-97 which gave 9cm at Casement according to the data in early January 1997. Quite hit and miss though, likely the coast got little as Dublin Apt had a max depth of 2cm. No lying snow at Rosslare and 2cm at Kilkenny. The only information Met gives of it is "moderate accumulations" around the 2nd-4th and widespread snow during the first 9 days of Jan 1997. It became milder from the 10th and that was it, winter over.

Maximum snow depth possible

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