Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

It's not as simple as the English speaking media are making out. Domestically this was far more nuanced believe me. I am a dual Irish/German citizen living in the former GDR where attitudes towards Russia are much more benign than elsewhere. There are a lot of rose tinted glasses worn around these parts. Support for any weapons to the Ukraine is not by any means universal. Germany has not exported any weapons to war zones since WWII. Many of the protesters in Berlin that you see on TV are actually Ukrainians, though of course very many Germans support the move, but support is not universal. The Chancellor said so in his speech to the Bundestag yesterday and he is stating fact. I watched the extended Tagestehemen on TV last night and a majority of people they asked in Leipzig had concerns about what they perceive as escalation. The Panzer has a particular meaning in German history. It was the linchpin of Blitzkrieg and all the devastation that followed.

Scholz has been working in the background trying to get the Americans to stay in lockstep and in hindsight I am glad he did, even if it was a frustrating couple of weeks. I do believe that main battle tanks are appropriate and believe that more support is required, also from traditionally neutral countries like Ireland. That should include lethal weaponry or funds to purchase same, to be used in the self defence of their country. I do not think it's acceptable to say "but we're neutral" and then expect other countries to stick their necks out.

IN Blitzkrieg times, this would have been a Panzer, a Marder IFV. Look at pictures of a Panzer 1 or Panzer 2 in comparison.

Germany had already agreed to provide these.

Germany put themselves in this position also by being a major weapons exporter. Also worth mentioning Germany has exported weapons to Russia post Crimean invasion which in all likelihood are being used against Ukraine in the warzone.

Germany is in NATO.

Ireland is neutral, we're not a major weapons exporter, that's why we're not sticking out necks out wrt lethal aid.

The Germans let themselves be sucked in and manipulated by Russian propaganda cues into making the tanks a bigger deal than they are.

Also, having 'concerns' doesn't necessarily mean they think the weapons shouldn't be sent.

Yeah we are in this for the long haul now aren't we. I cannot see this being a once off thing. The whole EU including the neutral countries will be expected to pay into a fund to buy new tanks for Ukraine as they are lost. To be honest the people interviewed seemed to be a mix of ages and sentiments, but the more common sentiment was of great apprehension, at least on the streets of Leipzig. There were also younger people wondering would they end up being sent to the Polish border in a NATO force if things escalate.

The war feels closer here I suppose. We are in NATO and physically closer to the conflict than the UK and Ireland.

One thing is for sure. The ca. 70 tanks guaranteed so far is nowhere near enough to actually win the war. It's just a taboo that has been broken.

Now now, let's not misrepresent things!

Some German companies exported some dual use technologies like electronic components, chemicals etc. that could be used in the manufacture of weapons, theoretically. German companies are however not known to have exported any actual finished weapons to Russia since the EU sanctions over Crimea were introduced. There's a massive difference.

As for the tanks not being a big deal, well they are. If they weren't and it was just ze Germans being awkward, the US, UK and France would have already delivered main battle tanks to Ukraine but they have not (yet). The UK announcement was not months ago. It was like two weeks ago. This is a marked escalation in NATO support. If it wasn't, there wouldn't be such a big deal about them on the Ukrainian side either. It's not that long ago that the west was claiming no tanks would be sent to Ukraine, remember?

Your article refers to local (German) media but does not quote it. It presumably refers to this article or others similar to it, that appeared a few days before your linked Turkish piece. It goes into much greater detail and does not mention anything other than possible dual use materials, it does not mention any exports of finished weaponry.

I actually agree that the fear of escalation was (probably) false but not unfounded. In the early days of the war people were wondering had Putin lost his marbles so a nuclear strike could not be ruled out.

I know that having a go at the Germans is a bit of a past time in some quarters but Germany has spent billions in and on Ukraine. Not just weapons but the humanitarian aid both in Ukraine and provided to Ukrainian refugees here has been on a vast scale. It's not really fair to make out like Germany isn't pulling its weight as I have been reading in some social media and even some of the professional media.

I suspect Biden understands the political difficulties faced by Scholz to be honest. They will have been in constant communication for the past couple of weeks. Scholz did say that he was trying to build a coalition but people thought it was an excuse. The hints dropped by some of his cabinet members, some perhaps inadvertently suggested that he was going to sanction the Leopard's use regardless, but I guess he did build that coalition and now the US has committed 31 of the best main battle tanks in the world in a combined effort. There were a lot of theatrics involved here. Poland only formally asked Berlin for permission to send Leopards this week, why did they wait so long? This was all agreed behind the scenes, that's why. These guys are on the phone to each other probably daily. I wouldn't even be surprised if Scholz said go ahead, tweet this or that so I can build a stronger case at home "look, our Polish allies really want us to do this". We are not privy to the real communications between the various heads of government. It's not conducted through twitter.

I think Germany's catastrophic errors of judgement were made before the war. The US concerns over Nordstream and Germany's dependence on Russian gas were dismissed as the US trying to maintain a state of perpetual tension in Europe or more crudely (pardon the pun) to sell its own oil and, in particular fracked LNG to Germany instead. Turns out the yanks were right and Germany was about as wrong as could be. Since the war started however, Germany has done a complete 180 on foreign policy towards Russia and in its own doctrine on weapons exports to conflict zones. These are two huge shifts in longstanding policy that happened almost overnight.

Anyway, I guess we have laboured this point long enough. I don't really have anything further to say on it.

Pity it didn't happen early but I guess they hoped that Russia would see sense. It is clear Krapzinc won't change so it will escalate maybe involve us as well in the training etc.

Germany has deployed that Patriot system to Poland's eastern border. The convoy of 12 vehicles set off on Wednesday I believe it was. I saw it on the news. Should be live any time now. The Bundeswehr will operate it so those troops have to be fed and watered as well (at Germany's expense, which is fine, Poland is a NATO ally, but yeah, the Polish PM annoyed me before the war so despite Poland's heroic effort in the refugee crisis, my impression of him hasn't changed)

Interesting to hear it is being deployed to Poland (expected that it would be accepted quietly in the end, despite all the high dudgeon and fuss made).

@Gatling

The suggestion was not in good faith IMO. (Correcting what I said in the other post) it's (to my mind) much more clearly just an example of the Polish govt. playing politics and using Germany as a handy and uncomplaining punchbag than the tank debate.

There's 2 issues with argument you are making about it.

First, at the time the US (i.e. the makers and suppliers) had themselves not made a public decision about giving any to Ukraine.

Second the Polish govt. already have some...perhaps they should have sent these ones East with their blessing for good of Ukraine, if they cannot wait go ahead and do it whether Uncle Sam says yay or nay... (note: that would not be a very good idea for several reasons, and Polish govt. do have enough braincells still firing to know this!).

But the Germans publicly said it would have to be discussed and approved by Nato ,it wasn't a Nato decision, possibly an American decision depending on if they have export restrictions in place,but it wasn't a decision for nato to make ,it was the Germans and Americans,

All they had to say was sorry we just need to get America to agree to the transfer to Ukraine first,but we all saw oh we can send some to Poland without Nato members agreement or apparently the Americans agreement

To be fair

The polish government doesn't have any patriot systems themselves.

3 have been deployed yes two at rzeszow that covers one of the main disposition points of transferring weapons aid to the Ukraine one up north.

These were deployed by nato.

The German one is been deployed to cover the South Eastern area.

Poland has ordered patriot systems themselves 6 I believe and a number of shorter range systems this is under the lend lease system from America with the opportunity to to buy out right,Polish troops are currently been trained on the systems.

Delivery of these systems are expected late this year early next year.

Also Poland has transferred 3 of there own systems all ready, soviet era but heavily modernized to western standards.

There are already German Iris-T missile defence systems saving lives in Ukraine and we have already committed to sending a patriot battery to Ukraine too. That is not the one going to Poland right now.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundeswehr-patriot-lieferung-polen-ukraine-1.5730230

@fly_agaric On the transfer of their Soviet weapons, they deserve a lot of praise for this but not the excessive levels they sometimes receive (on this website anyway!).

Where are these excessive levels of praise for the polish government on here,

Poland has Played a significant part in the defense of Ukraine,

Weapons, vehicles weapons, logistics,and other support including repair of vehicles and weapons,

In tanks alone they gave over 350 + and still giving

They supply weapons,they embarrassed the Germans several times over and aren't afraid of putin,to the point they have said they expect to fight Russia in open conflict over the next 6-8 years, appeasement has allowed Russia to do what it's doing in Ukraine, when it was repeatedly predicted what was going to happen the Germans allowed themselves to be bent over a barrel of Russian oil,

If it wasn't for the direct support of the polish we could be looking at a totally different outlook in Ukraine,

Yes they have a strict Catholic based systems and have pretty much trampled on LGBT rights, but that's nothing that can't be changed in the future, the same was said about ukraine not so long ago by many on here,yet people have gone pro ukraine over the last while despite previously claiming far right Nazism , corrupt,anti LGBT rights failed state .