Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

Options
1631632634636637718

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,326 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    The poll suggests the Social Democrats are on 6%, up 2% while the Green Party is at 4%, down 1%.

    Ratings of the smaller left parties seems to fluctuate arbitrarily between 0 and 5-6%, with little link that I can see to how things are going for them in the real world. SDs were on 0 in one poll over the summer that coincided with their annual conference. Even Aontu has hit 4% on occasion. I doubt the parties themselves pay much heed because it all seems so random.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I'd agree about FF, I think the years in government with FG have resulted in them being viewed as consistently more and more economically right wing as they've just fallen into line with FG on most issues. Thats playing a big part in SF eating the urban working class vote that used to reliably back FF. It'll be interesting to see if coming into the next election, or if under a new leader, FF move back towards emphasizing their more centrist/populist economic policies or not.

    If/when the migration protests gather speed like the Water Tax ones (which does seem to be happening) I disagree that it will hit FF and FG that hard though. I think both parties will follow public opinion on the matter, neither is ideologically committed to open borders.

    Its Labour, the SocDems and the Greens, all of whom are on the record calling for more open borders, who're likely to be really hit by the issue. They're all committed to open borders as a concept, and are still regularly in the media defending letting in more international protection migrants as of last week - when FF, FG and SF all have the common sense to be saying nothing about it currently, because they can see the public anger rising.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,410 ✭✭✭jmcc


    It should be random. That's the whole point of basing a poll on a random sample of people that is representative of the population being surveyed. The problem with RedC is that it is more pseudo-random than random because it doesn't use a random sample of the electorate. It uses a random sample of a 40K panel of people that it believes represents the electorate. That's why is results for fringe parties show far less variation than with other polls. The RedC poll has elements of a tracking poll (where the same person might be surveyed multiple times over a period) and a random poll but it gets down to exactly how representative a sample its random sample of that 40K panel is compred to the electorate

    Another issue is that these are all small sample (1K people or less) surveys and only ask about first preference choices. Ireland uses he Single Transferable Vote system which has multiple preferences and apart from the front runners, most candidates depend on transfers to get elected. This is what the talk of all these polls misses.

    There's a geographical concentration issue with some fringe parties and candidates. A party needs to be over 5% to be considered a "national party". Below that and its votes will be highly geographically concentrated if it has TDs.This also applies to Independents who are the ultimate in geographically concentrated votes. With a small sample of 1K or so with an electorate in the millions, the support for small parties can bounce around between 0 and 5%. On some polls, small parties like Aontu or PBP can go to 0% 00but they still get TDs elected because of the geographical concentration of their vote.

    Couple all this with the fact that most political correspondents and journalists don't have an background in any Mathematical discipline (STEM) and you are left with the problem of people who don't understand how opinion polls work tryng to interpret their results. They can't properly explain the results because they simply don't understand the limitations of the polling methodologies or sampling. They then guess how many seats that the parties will get based on these percentages which typically apply to first preference votes. This is why they did not predict the Greens getting so many seats in 2020 or Labour being obliterated in 2016 or even the resurrection of FF in 2016.

    Perhaps it is best to illustrate it as a joke.

    Three pollsters go deer hunting. They spot a deer. The first pollster fires and hits the ground three feet to the left of the deer. The second fires and hits a tree three feet to the right of the deer. The third pollster jumps up and down yelling "we got him". The Sindo scribblers write it up as "Herd of deer massacred on the Moon. Sinn Fein suspected.". :)

    Regards...jmcc

    Post edited by jmcc on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Time for this lot to go isn't it?

    Housing and Health alone are so bad. While we aren't seeing mass protest against the government directly, we're seeing dispersed protest again health, and pro and anti immigration. And that awful violent attack on a homeless shelter in Dublin is disgusting.

    I think the general mood is that they've failed terribly and their time has passed.

    They haven't made any substantial changes to the awful policies which put us in this position, and if we leave them in power for another two years we'll be further behind.

    I think a lot of people, who are not directly affected, have been unaware of how bad housing has been. In part because everything is a 'crisis' these days. And the immigration protests are just bringing it to the fore.

    I'm not naive enough to believe that SF are going to wave a magic wand and fix everything overnight. But it's been clear for a long time a number of measure could have been taken around increasing the supply of houses and have been ignored whether because of ignorance, incompetence, or greed/corruption.

    While I'm at it, what options are there for getting rid of this lot? Are there other mechanisms other than a vote of no-confidence? Can the president step in? Petition? Do governments ever just resign because they're just not up to the job?

    Post edited by MegamanBoo on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    This is the attack I'm talking about. https://www.thejournal.ie/racist-attack-on-a-dublin-homeless-camp-described-as-a-sickening-low-5982393-Jan2023/

    Inaction on housing has opened the door wide for this kind of hate.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Inaction on health is shocking really considering it's only getting worse .

    Needs a radical overhaul but won't happen



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Again I don't think SF are going to fix everything, or am I particularly fond of them.

    But surely it's clear things are hopeless with this lot.

    My suspicion is some in Fine Fail will have realized the FFG brand is toxic. They'll try to collapse the coalition from within and reclaim a historical centre left position. Meehole will have to go first though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,248 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    But they fixcccccsssssshhhhheeeeeeedddddd the road.




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Someone in governments been watching gladiator

    They're giving the people what they want throwing out handouts and bumping social welfare



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    The spirit of Bertie lives on!

    How'd that work out the last time?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 296 ✭✭Ham_Sandwich


    Yes get rid of finna fail and finna gael Sinn Fein have been waiting to put this countruy right housing health education they will sort us out if we look after them in the eloection.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Out of the frying pan into the fire with that lot



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I'd sooner not vote for them, links to crime figures, nationalist history etc. I also think the quality of candidate drops of steeply after the core figures. (Are ffg much better in that regard?)

    But at the same time, they're at least promising a step in the right direction and I think some of their main players are a step above ffg's.

    I'd much prefer a traditional 'Social Democrat' party but no-one else on the cards.

    If SF don't cut the mustard maybe someone else will step up. But we at least need to get started, not slipping further back. FFG out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,664 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    ive been a shinner for years, but I have no idea what they'd be like in government. the problem now though is how many more times do we do the same thing (elect basically the same parties) and expect a different result? There comes a time when you just have to take a chance.



  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 76,130 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    threads merged



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Lots of problems with that story emerging apparently. Gript link I know, but a stopped clock is right twice a day etc:

    "In the first instance, the Garda statement on the matter, included at the very end of Kitty Holland’s report, does not particularly lend credence to the claim that there was a dramatic armed assault on a camp full of migrants:

    A Garda spokesman confirmed there had been an “incident on River Road. Gardaí responded quickly and engaged with those present. There was no report of any injuries and no formal complaints made at this time.

    Contrast this with the headline of the piece:

    “Men with dogs, sticks and baseball bat attack Dublin migrant camp”

    It is fair, I think, to say, that if men with dogs and sticks and a baseball bat attacked others, and there were no injuries, then there was either immense good fortune involved, or interpretations of the word “attack” may vary.

    But let us move on to the biggest question in the report: There is no doubt – none whatsoever – that the Irish Times had cameras on the scene. In fact, Holland’s report includes a video report from the migrant camp itself, showing what appears to be the camp before any attack took place. There is footage of one man sleeping in a tent. There is a football. There is a pair of shoes, hanging from a branch. There is no evidence of any attack, or damage to any of the tents.

    Now, we know three things, directly from Holland’s report, which pose questions:

    The group of men arrived at about 12.45pm at the encampment, comprised of about 15 tents in a forest area, on the bank of the Tolka river on River Road, near the Ashtown pound…..

    …..When interrupted by The Irish Times and asked why they were attacking the camp, the men – all white, Irish – alleged the residents had been involved in an assault locally.

    ……Gardaí arrived at the camp shortly after the men and dogs left, and spoke to those living there. One, a Polish man (20) told The Irish Times he had been hit several times with a baseball bat. Visibly distressed, he said his arm was not broken. “I have strong bones, but the tendons are sore”.

    What we know is that the Irish Times was present before, during, and after the alleged attack. And we know from the footage of the area that the Irish Times had a camera present. And yet.

    There is no footage of the attack. There is no footage of the attackers. There is no footage of the aftermath of any attack. The Irish Times, we are told, actually interviewed several of the attackers, but did not record them, or get them on camera. There is no evidence of anything other than the existence of the migrant camp itself.

    I do not know the reasons for this, but as an editor myself, let me tell you: If Ben or Fatima or any other Gript reporter was on the scene of an incident like this and failed to get any publishable footage at all, they would be in the doghouse, to put it very mildly."

    https://gript.ie/the-remarkable-holes-in-the-irish-times-migrant-attack-story/



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    That is up to the people and as much as I would like to see an end to FF, FG and SF it is up to the people to do it. The fact that housing crisis is impacting on all sections of society in this country could see FF and FG decimated but then again SF are not exactly setting the world alight either. It will be a case of something like 2011 happening to see FF and FG removed from power, even in 2011 FG did their best to lose that election. I know when I vote there will be no preferences for FF, FG or Green representatives.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,648 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    What right direction are they promising a step in? Because I can't see it. All I can see is a country returning to the 1950s when emigration was the norm, the population was falling and economic misery stalked the land.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    You mean the 50's when there was no housing or hospital care?

    Looks like we're heading there alright.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Tldr It's the 'fake news' media.

    Also are you telling me it's ok to turn up at a homeless shelter with dogs and baseball bats in itself?

    The line for you is serious physical assault?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,378 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    That graph is very interesting:

    FF seem to be history in the greater Dublin area ( going on this graph ). They are only 4th most popular. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Bertie’s office 🤣



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Did you even bother to read any of the half of the article I quoted? Its not calling the Irish Times fake news in anyway, it repeatedly says we should assume the best about anything they publish. I'll summarize it even more for you if that helps, the key points it makes were:

    • The Gardai have no reports of any injuries whatsoever, and no formal complaints of any kind
    • The Irish Times reporter, by her own claim, was there "before, during, and after the attack" with a camera present. They have footage of the camp before any attack. But there is no footage of any kind of the attack itself, the attackers, or even the aftermath of the attack.

    Do those facts (note, not opinions) not seem strange to you? What sort of journalist is literally at the scene of a major crime as its happening, with a camera, and gets zero evidence of it or its aftermath?

    Put things in a more neutral scenario for perspective - lets say the Irish Times ran a story about Leinster fans rioting outside the Aviva with baseball bats attacking Munster fans, and claimed to have been there before, during, and after the brutal assault. But all they had to show for this was footage of Munster fans before the riot looking peaceful. They had absolutely zero footage of said riot, of any Leinster fans in the area at all, or any aftermath of the riot (injuries or destruction). And there were no Garda reports of any injuries or complaints filed about any riot... Would you wonder about the truth of the story?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,410 ✭✭✭jmcc


    There was housing. FF and FG managed to build enough social housing to keep everyone housed. The economy was still quite protectionist and there were some large factories and heavy industry. Emigration was used as a safety valve by governments. There were also hospitals. It was a decision made by FFers in the late 1990s to stop building social housing and let the market supply housing that things went off the rails.

    Regards...jmcc



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    It's just muck and calling for distraction. And yes it is shouting 'fake news'.

    If the IT did have footage there are several good reasons they might not have released it.

    Clearly something disgusting happened at that homeless camp, stop trying to deflect and minimize it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its not remotely shouting fake news. Its asking why basic standards of journalism, that apply to reporting on anything, weren't observed in this case.

    Theres no evidence whatsoever that "clearly something disgusting happened". Thats the problem.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,648 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This is a complete misunderstanding.

    The population was declining, there was no problem building enough social housing to keep everyone housed because you were only replacing existing stock in rural areas with housing stock in cities.

    People harking back to the 1950s as a golden age of housebuilding don't understand the differing economic contexts. When they are calling for us to go back to that, they are also harking back to those terrible economic times. As I keep saying, our problems with housing are problems of success.

    We are creating jobs, we are an attractive place to move to live in rather than a place to leave behind. That is a completely different challenge to the 1950s that was an economic wasteland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    And some nothing right-wing cesspit like 'gript' is going to be the arbiter of 'basic standards' of journalism is it?

    Mainstream media. Fake news... blah... blah... blah....



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Such wonderful jobs we have now. Sure after a few week or two you might have enough for your own tent to live in.

    Better not get sick though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,895 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Ah yes. SF. the party who doesnt recognise the authority of the court, the party with links to folks who attack the police and know where the bodies are buried around the borders, the party with an ex-FF member as its leader in the south, a no name leader in the north, with claims of being an all island party but having directly opposed positions on the same issues depending on whether its NI or ROI, and ultimately the party with no costings or ability to pay for their magical money tree.

    Within a couple of years of an SF lead government, we'd be back to the 80s.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 296 ✭✭Ham_Sandwich


    80s were better than what we have now no water charges no bin charges more housing and hospitals we were doing a lot better before ff and fg came along and gavce the country to the bankers and the develpoers



Advertisement