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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @fly_agaric Would have to disagree that all that has happened since Feb. was "repeatedly predicted" a long way out. You are making it all seem so obvious after the fact.

    There's threads going back nearly 9years on where it was discussed after the first occupation of Eastern Ukraine, Ive hundreds of posts on exactly what was going to happen going back over the last 9 years saying that the Russians would cut off the Ukrainans from the sea of Azoz,and they invade again and blockade the ports on the black sea before pushing to Mariupol and metiplol,

    The so called experts got it spectacularly wrong, over the last few years Russia was pushing closer to the Ukrainian border ,they built bases and logistics hubs ,all documented with satellite imagery, Russia said it was yearly excercises.

    The warning signs were all there from the new bases to troops being deployed to Belarus.

    And I wasn't the only person who said this was coming on here ,

    But yet it was all denied your a war monger hoping for a war , why would Putin invade Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    If you were a person following this very closely for years (unlike me) and felt a huge war in Europe over it was likely fair dues to you. We cannot all call these things correctly, I mean you even admit yourself some "so called experts" got it badly wrong. edit: In hindsight the "post Crimea" policies of Europe/US towards Russia were a huge mistake and a much tougher line should have been taken then, but hindsight is easy. A harder policy from US was made impossible anyway post 2016, given who won that election.

    I only got very nervous about it once all these public warnings started coming from the US govt. towards end of 2021 I believe, and Biden + many other Western leaders started dropping everything + flitting about to talk with Putin etc. Definitely wasn't calling those [at that time, like yourself posting on that Russia thread] predicting a Russian invasion was imminent "warmongers".

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ukraine didn't think that Russia was going to invade Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,537 ✭✭✭amandstu


    One of Zakhari's guests on CNN last night was suggesting without rebuttal that Ukraine might have to give up Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in exchange for recognition of Ukraine by Russia.Sickening.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,446 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Has he discussed this with Zelenski I wonder? Might be a good idea if he were to engage with him ( Zelenski) before making ill-advised remarks.

    But anyway, for the sake of argument, say it does happen and Ukraine is forced to accept the loss of Donbass and Crimea. What happens then? Because it will have been taken under duress, Ukrainians will neither forgive or forget, and when they are economically and militarily strong enough, as long as it will take, they will re-take their territory again. If it goes to this, it will become a generational thing,



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Im surprised talk of Polands reputation over human rights has gotten involved with regards to their helping Ukraine.

    I live in Warsaw and it is completely in their interests to see Russia lose, not only for the utter satisfaction it would give them over nearly 40 years of soviet influenced rule but from a military perspective they want them as weak as possible.

    they also have Belarus to contend with and Kaliningrad to their north.

    I detest the government that is in power here but you’d be a fool to think Poland hasn’t profited from this war.

    They also announced yesterday that they are going to be spending 4% of their gdp on defence. That’s huge, I even think it’s one of the highest in the world and watch Poland go from a peasant country 30 years ago to a new world “super power”.

    Hats off to them, I wish our government had the balls to make the decisions they have defence wise but that’ll never happen.

    If we are to discuss their human rights record then you’d be correct in lambasting them as it’s an utter embarrassment and they really do use the EU like a cash cow and the same goes with Hungary but I would argue Hungary is far worse as they are beginning to look more pro Russia than pro Europe.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I think Poland has a lot of questions to answer with regards both human rights, and its own slide into authoritarian-adjacent structures ... and the same can be said of Ukraine too TBH. I don't think anybody can be accused of being that naive as to think Ukraine was some paradise that embraced a more liberal social outlook. I doubt either country figure highly on LGBTQ-friendly travel guides. It has been an attempted tactic by those trying to play moral superiority over this war through strawman arguments. While Ukraine might find the EU Ascension process grinds to a halt once Brussels asks questions of its corruption and social issues. Want those funds to rebuild your country? Show some progress.

    However.

    When there is a clear existential threat to both countries, the latter more obvious by dint of being currently invaded by a country happy to war-crime, then one must apply some degree of proportionality to issues that are better served during peacetime. There may be no atheists in foxholes as the saying goes - but there are even fewer LGBTQ activists. Relativity is also relevant when the enemy at the gates is a country that is slow-walking a return to criminalisation of homosexuality, as well as possessing a myriad of other social issues beyond that (such as its epidemic of domestic abuse, now codified into law so long as you don't break the skin).

    Poland is right to be actively defensive when it has a clear, consistent history with Russia as a belligerent force - but we can hold its feet to the fire over democratic or social lapses while also applauding its more pro-active stance on this war. The two are not mutually exclusive, and when the dust settles the questions must return. Interesting how criticism of Hungary has dried up of late - they seem to be keeping their head down.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Biden has dismissed the idea of Ukraine receiving f16s.

    Do other countries need the Americans approval to transfer their f16s over?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    He was asked a question while walking over to the media, this wasn't a case of Biden says no and that's the end of it ,for all we know there is ongoing discussions about jets or other systems going to Ukraine behind the scenes just like at the Rammstein conferences some weapons or technology gets publicly announced as being supplied to Ukraine, other weapons and systems don't get mentioned but still get supplied



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,537 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Would they be training the Ukrainian pilots just in case?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's quite possible , remember Ukrainians pilots have regularly taken part in training programs with the American airforce for the last 8/9 years,I'd be surprised if they some haven't already flown US aircraft at some point in time,



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,019 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    This article calls into question the usefulness of fighter jets for Ukraine:

    Basically it argues that Russia will just deny Ukraine the ability to use them as Ukraine has done to Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Itsame Mario


    Thoughts on Oleksiy Makeyev wanting nukes?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But yet both are still flying missions over ukraine,

    But American aircraft have better avionics and munitions compared to Ukrainans Soviet era aircraft, people are comparing US tactical air operations to whats available to Ukraine, the US will have ISAR aircraft or AWACS, refueling and escort aircraft for support if needed so far the Ukrainians are flying two missions close air support to troops on the ground dropping dumb bombs and launching unguided rockets at positions mostly in volleys where there are essentially aiming in a arch to gain range ,but because the Rockets are unguided there is no guarantee you will hit what y ok your aiming for ,

    The other missions are SEAD ,or wild weasel depending on how old you are which is directly targeting anti aircraft missles systems along with their radars using specific weapons,

    The Ukrainans don't have smart bombs or Lazer guided weapons on their aircraft or the targeting systems to use such weapons, which would give the Ukrainans a standoff weapon that could be launched safely in Ukrainan controlled territory,



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Interesting post by Glenn Greenwald.

    She says, "I am against this sort of insane drunkenness about war that all the other parties celebrate."

    Reading the posts here, I feel the sentiment describes very well my feelings as someone opposed to war.

    Then I came across this: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/this-time-its-different/

    The war seems entirely futile. The ceasefire agreement in April would have saved tens of thousands of lives but wiser heads prevailed and according to the above, 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers are now dead and more Ukraine territory lost.

    I have been reading Gatling's pro war post for a considerable time, I hope the person reviews their position and thinks of all the dead Ukrainian's the next time they cheer on the war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,424 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    There was no real ceasefire agreement in April and it is a premise without foundation to assert it as such.

    This argument was discredited the last time you made it and you pop up again a few days later, ignoring that, repeating the same premise without foundation and ignoring the rebuttals to it.

    Ukraine already had a peace treaty with Russia, the Budapest agreement. Russia repeatedly broke it. What guarantees would there be of Russia abiding by any such similar treaty that leaves Ukraine out of NATO? None whatseover. That is not peace, that is a temporary truce.

    Here is the rebuttal you did not engage with last time:

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154841/#Comment_120154841

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I don't think a single commentator here is "pro war". From what I can see the majority did not want this invasion to occur nor the earlier 2014 seizure of territory.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    So if you defend the Ukrainians your pro war ,but if you support the Russians your some how a moderate peace seeker ,



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,446 ✭✭✭jmreire


    And if Putins "3 day war" had succeeded, and he had taken Ukraine, your figure of 150'000 ( by the way where did you get that figure? ) would pale into insignificance compared to the mass slaughter the Ruzzians would carry out. And no mention of how many Ruzzian deaths there has been, all because of Putins madness? And that's on the battlefield. but if you were to add in the collateral damage to Ruzzian citizens due to resources being diverted away to military use ie;- Medicines etc. the death toll will be much higher.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,424 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I am pro-peace, a lasting peace that leaves Ukraine in a state of security.

    Not the mere temporary absence of open warfare.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    You need to get better sources; claiming 150k dead Ukrainian soldiers is direct Russian propaganda (not even Ukraine claim to have killed 150k Russian soldiers and Russia is the aggressor moving untrained soldiers into meat grinders such as Bakhmut which would inflict far higher casualties).

    Secondly; Ukraine had a peace deal with Russia after they gave up their nuclear weapons. What happened after that? Russia invaded Crimea. After Crimea there was another peace agreement which Russia said they would not invade or take any more land from Ukraine; see how that has ended up with shot down civilian airplanes? Sorry but any talk about peace deal with Russia is a joke at this stage because Russia has over and over again broken every deal only to take another chunk of Ukraine. Peace will come once Russia is pushed out of Ukraine by force because that's the only thing that Russia respects; anything else is rose tinted glasses talking because Russia don't care what deals they sign only to take more land later. You may hate war but the aggressor here is Russia who's consistently broken every peace deal they agreed to only to take more land; until Russia gets kicked out of Ukraine this cycle of piece land grabs will continue and no amount of hating war will change that fact and Ukraine knows this; that's why they are fighting tooth and nail.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    if you are referring to his interview with DW then I don’t see where he called for nukes? Can you source quote it?

    he said that nukes seem to be the only deterrent, that’s different to demanding nukes.

    but let’s assume he did say Ukraine wants nukes, it would be an utterly stupid request and I cannot see a single western power not raising an eyebrow to that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Itsame Mario


    The wording of his statement seemed to say that he wants to start discussing the option of nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

    As for nuclear states and how they would react to such a request for these weapons if it was made, I'd like to hope he'd be either laughed or booted out of the door rather than any serious consideration given to such a proposal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Well the Ukrainans previously had nuclear weapons, which they gave up for peace and friendship and mutual understanding with Russia,

    And look how that worked out for ukraine,

    Choice A- Russia leaves and Ukraine joins Nato immediately,

    Choice B- Russia leaves and Ukraine get the weapons to make sure Russia never threatens or invades them again



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,537 ✭✭✭amandstu


    I am not sure whether it would have worked out any better for Ukraine had they kept their nuclear arsenal.

    How do you see it ?Don't you think Russia might have just been a little more circumspect but have pursued a similar course anyway?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    The rebuttal is based on Russia being irrational orcs. They outlined their redlines to Ukraine.

    Mearsheimer says, there was a Western backed coup. Ukraine has not abided by the redlines of it's bigger neighbour. The USA saw an opportunity and armed them for war. They've got the war and it's going horrendously.

    You've discredited nothing except your own argument. Look what the USA does to its neighbors. Far better to have an imperfect ceasefire than 150,000 Ukrainian people dead and the country in ruins.

    The argument that it's worth throwing away real peoples lives so that a country can potentially ally with NATO and have great relations with the main enemy of their neighbor. I find that line of thinking incredibly naive and it infuriates me to think that it's acceptable for 150,000 to die for nothing. Great to see the German lady speaking out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I honestly don't think they would have invaded but there's also using the notion of invading to remove the threat of Ukraine using nuclear weapons against Russia ,

    I think once maiden happened and Ukraine started to clear house of loyal putin puppets it was always going to end in conflict, during the first invasion of Ukraine all the senior members of the military were all Russian soldiers or Commanders loyal to the Kremlin and not ukraine.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Mod Note

    OK, that's enough. This is a fact-based discussion forum. If you want to pursue an alternative reality where Ukraine and the U.S. are the real aggressors, head to Conspiracy Theories or Twitter.

    @mcsean2163 you were given an opportunity to engage constructively and you didn't. Don't post in this thread again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    There was no Western back coup, don't know what makes you think the war is going well for the Russians,they have been bogged down for best part of a year they lost a large chunk of territory they occupied,they have lost over 65% of all of its tanks ,a similar number of armored vehicles , hundreds of aircraft and helicopters and upwards of 120,000 men killed in Ukraine, and likely double that number injured and incapacitated,all the time ukraine are getting stronger and better equipped



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Itsame Mario


    If Russia sees the situation the same as you do I doubt they're going to be leaving Ukraine any time soon.



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