Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Apart from drones, ATGMs, HIMARS, satellite mapping, GPS and laser guided weapons, it's just like WW1 :) Jokes aside, indeed it's developed into a stalemate and trench conditions, but the capacity is also there for sudden movements. On both sides.

They are down into prisoners and mercenaries less than a year in, not a great sign. They are pulling older and older tanks out of cold storage and having to refit all the stuff that's been stolen off them. There are unscrewing nukes off Cold War missiles and relying on Iranian drones because they are "totally not" running low on advanced, guided, missiles. Sanctions are making it trickier for them to source complex components for their more advanced military equipment, or even simple stuff, like the special rubber from their tank tracks (which is made in the US). Speaking of sanctions, their economy is squeezed and their energy revenue, which funds the war, is dropping. In a country with a GDP half the size of the state of California.

Indeed they can keep going for a long time, they have production, they can conscript more - but there are some pretty serious cracks showing already

Also, I wouldn't really compare Putin's "special military operation" to Germany's invasion of the continent in WW2, for one, German soldiers didn't have to lug back toilets and secondly, they didn't get bogged down in Poland and have to retreat two months in.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)  

Russian forces and occupation authorities continue efforts to identify and arrest Crimean Tatars under allegations that they associate with a pan-Islamist political organization banned in Russia. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 30 that Russian forces searched 25 Tatar homes and arrested nine people under accusations that they associate with Hizb ut-Tahrir (a pan-Islamist political organization that has historically been active in Central Asia and in Crimea amongst the Crimean Tatar community and that is banned in Russia).[55] The Center also reported that Russian forces are conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign against Crimean Tatars under the guise of fighting terrorism.[56] Russian occupation authorities have historically targeted Crimean Tatar communities to consolidate social control of occupied Crimea, promoting the notion that anti-Russian sentiment is extremist or terrorist activity by affiliating it with Hizb ut-Tahrir.[57] ISW previously reported that the Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) conducted similar raids on Crimean Tatar households in Dzankoi, occupied Crimea, on January 24.[58]

Russian forces and occupation authorities are continuing to evict and deport Ukrainians from their homes in occupied territories under the guise of “evacuation.” Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported on January 30 that Russian occupation authorities are housing Russian and Wagner forces in abandoned homes after forcibly evicting residents from settlements along the frontlines in occupied Luhansk Oblast.[59]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2023

Oh I know, they are really just estimations. Often they can be wildly off. The bottom line is that Russia, economically, is in a much worse place than if they didn't invade Ukraine. They wouldn't be sanctioned, they wouldn't have hundreds of billions locked up, they would still have Europe paying them almost a billion per day for resources, they wouldn't be an intl pariah, and they wouldn't have an expensive war to maintain.

Probably sent to the front lines.

For sure. I was questioning their assertion that Russia would do better than England. I don't think so. Like the fellow that went bankrupt: "At first slowly, then suddenly"

@Homelander

The Russian apologist thing right now is that while Russia may be at a deficit regarding modern weaponry, they have the edge in numbers and will simply swamp Ukraine like a zombie horde. Putin will mobilise every able-bodied citizen if need be and somehow that won't be politically untenable. So, low-spec tanks by the bucketload and low-spec men in and alongside them until Ukraine either gives up or runs out of bullets.

Assuming that Russia could mobilise another million men, say (a number I've heard bandied about) - there still remains the small detail of how to keep that many men fed and kitted, not to mention motivated. If someone could give an analysis on the logistics needed to make that number of men effective and where Russia stands in these terms, it would be interesting reading, I think.

They have managed so far when we were told they would freeze in bunkers and the Russian army would collapse while Ukraine pushed forward all snug in the best NATO winter gear.

Yet it’s Russia who are pushing forward.

They wouldn't have produced jack shít if the Americans weren't supplying them with the means to do so. A point conveniently forgotten by all you russophiles, is that anything Russia achieved in WWII would not have been possible without Lend Lease. And in typical Russian fashion they then make the country that saved them from the nazis their primary enemy. Only a nation as stupid as the Russians could come to that conclusion. It says alot about those who support them.

What use is 20 thousand tanks when a single man with a rocket launcher can kill one and block a road for a few hours.

Russia can win battles but won't win the war.

Ukraine cant win battles, but will win this war eventually, since NATO won't allow Ukraine to lose.

Apparently they are less advanced than ATACMs but for cheaper and available in large numbers. Might be a better fit.

Some assembly required !

Apparently, this conflict has caused the Moldovans to not want anything to do with Transnistria, according to an opinion poll. The only way it gets dealt with is if Orcs there attack Ukraine and they go in and deal with every last one of them and the top echelon of their supporters. 15 % of Moldovans are pro Orc/Transnistria.

Meh, I wouldn’t give him that much credit, to think he’s a stupid useful idiot - he’s not, he’s a snide first-class narcissist. This thing is about the internal politics more than anything else. He will say and do just about anything to put up an opposition to the PM, has done from day one whatever the topic, up to the point you’d think it’s personal, and their rivalry is now starting to get embarrassing for the whole country. Of course, an element in this is also the fact that he comes from the political left.

The PM has also lost the recent parliamentary vote he wanted to get passed, to help train Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia, by a narrow margin. This shows the old, and bitter, ideological rivalries of left vs. right are still rather alive, much more so than for example right after the war of independence etc. It’s very disappointing, considering the parallels between these two countries.