Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

This thread is so clogged up with "the sky is falling" posts about the economy and anecdotal tales of mass emigration that are regularly completely at odds with all the actual statistics and evidence, but the fact that one foreign company happens to be holding a recruitment day is really stretching the limits of relevancy to a discussion about the Irish property market.

And oil rich middle eastern autocracies with infrastructure built on the back of effective slave labour have been offering financial benefits that no democracy can compete with for at least the last decade or two, it's nothing new.

UK rates officially up another .5 points. Doesn’t seem to be much wavering as the same 7 decision-makers voted for a .5 rise and 2 voting for no change as the last rate rise.

There's a big difference between a 0.5% rate rise to combat inflation and the sort of claims people have been making that there's suddenly going to be mass emigration and that the economy is going to go into freefall. Net migration is still heavily positive, the jobs market is still very competitive, there are record levels of savings in the country, and the latest growth figures came in a couple of days ago which showed the economy is still growing well.

Nobody is denying the international economic headwinds, but most analysis is suggesting the rate rises will take something like 3% off what house prices otherwise would have been, which means e.g. they might rise by 2% instead of rising by 5%. They might stay still or might drop a little, nobody can predict the future, but I would safely predict that we're not going to see a double digit drop.

Yet neither you or I will know what rate emigration outwards is until April. I did say anecdotal evidence is suggesting we are going to see a higher number than last year.

GDP with the unreliability of the MNCs for growth rate we need to be watching the GNP and see how badly our domestic companies are doing.

There are other factors at play like modular homes if this supply line can be ramped up it could make a serious contribution to the supply side its already making headway in places like Carlow this year we could see 2023 stagnating for the first 2/3 quarters and eventually dropping at the turn of the year while interest rates remain at the highest point, businesses and individuals really start feeling the pinch and with the tech companies shedding jobs to protect their profits I don't think the government will have that 20Billion cushion like they did last year. But its all gusss work form either side but one thing is for sure 2023 is a completely different beast with regards to the economic headwinds than any of the last 5/6 years.

It's not a sky is falling in post.

Last year I posted that Europe would surprise and the bloated dollar could see value in Europe when the sky was falling in. As it panned out Europe outperformed US

This is an accommodation thread, our youth can't get accomodation. The post is just to advise them of places where accommodation is available. It's not just cabin crew that are being recruited in Dubai

Dubai has a range of attractive roles especially in accountancy. Couple this with free tax and no shortage of accommodation reasonably priced compared to salaries, I am not sure what is holding some young people here to be honest.

Well I am not looking to contradict you, but the ones I know are accountants and yes they get better pay Tax Free!

That's it I am done. 4% rates by end of summer, most likely looking at 5% for a new mortgage there after. WTF? 5% on a 500K house means average payments are now 650 a month MORE than in July last year on the same type of house.

Nah I am done. Unforgivable I find myself in this situation.

Keep the faith this will stymy demand. The simple fact is it will take a decade of pay rises in order to keep up with the levels of inflation seen in the last 2 years and that is not even taking the hike in interest rates into account. 2023 is going to rough watch the the price of everything flatline for the first 2/3 quarters this year and then head downward at around Q4 of 2023 when rates are at their highest. The price pain in this country for everything is unaffordable for the vast majority. One thing for sure is 2023 will be the year gougers are told where to go if you can wait it out end of 2023/2024 will see prices come down

Well, when the state was burning out the funny-money printing press during the big lockdown, a few people did indeed warn of the severe consequences of such a horrifically irresponsible policy. Sadly, they dragged through the mud by the bought and sold media and a sizable chunk of the population. Who could have imagined that dumping billions(trillions if one considers the rest of Europe) in fiat money into an economy would have consequences.

I'm sorry that you are in this situation but this is a textbook consequence of how this series of interest rate rises will dampen house price growth Whole cohorts of house hunters who could previously manage the monthly payments on a 500k home are now priced out of such properties as the banks will no longer lend the amounts required to purchase same as the stress tests are further stressed.

This in turn means less interest and bids (and certainly over bids) for such available properties resulting in vendors(especially those who are owner occupiers who need to sell in a hurry as they are moving elsewhere out of necessity) dropping prices to generate interest and closing of sales.

This cascades down to each price bracket (the 400k buyers/300k buyers etc etc) as each cohort has to trade down to what their revised mortgage amount allows.

Will be interesting to see the market in the Autumn after the final tranche of ECB rises has been completed.

My tracker is 200 pm more now compared to last summer also but I'm more than halfway through my 35 year term so I did enjoy almost 15 years of exceptionally low rates so swings and roundabouts....

I thought about it. But with the cost of legal fees and the uncertainty of what rates would be available after the fixed term ended were off-putting to me. I'm also hoping to pay off early a few chunks of the principal over the next few years as well (I never considered this while rated were at 0% but at tracker rate of 0.75 above ECB I'm now at 3.75 and will be 4.25 next month!!). I couldn't pay off early without a breakage fee if I locked myself into a fixed term.

at a margin of .75% you've had basically free money for 15 years, I wouldn't give that up lightly at all. If you could take the pain up to 5% I'd hang in there.

I could be wrong but most of the analysts seem to be predicting a similar .5% in March as well and then it dropping for .25% for the next 2/3 (maybe even 4) increases.

The slowdown/fall has already happened as far as i can see. I went sale agreed in November 2021. There was hardly anything on the market then. I was the third highest bidder but got it as buying for cash. I dont think i would get what I paid for it now despite the CSO saying prices have risen since then.

Much more similar property out there now with no offers and the confidence has gone from market due to the rate rises. The fall has already started.