Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

odyssey06 · 01-02-2023 9:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189000#Comment_120189000

Russia has nothing to fear from a Ukraine in NATO in terms of direct aggressive military threat.

Russia is already bordered by NATO states.

If Russia was worried about a NATO assault it wouldnt have stripped troops from NATO borders to send to Ukraine.

Under the NATO Russia Founding Act nuclear weapons and permanent bases would not be placed on Ukrainian soil if it joins.

All Russia has to do is abide by its treaty obligations.

Itsame Mario · 01-02-2023 9:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189088#Comment_120189088

Let's hope you're right.

Nody · 01-02-2023 10:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189000#Comment_120189000

No because you are making a fundamental flaw in your argument here; Russia is not a rational being nor does it have all the actual data. For starters Putin as the leader of Russia today has basically put his reputation on winning in Ukraine; the day he says the war is not possible to win he'll have an accident with a window basically. Hence for Putin there's not a case to sue for peace because if he does he'll be gone (and this is assuming he does not die of natural causes of course) and hence ongoing war (even if not winnable) is better than peace. Not saying his replacement would be better but any chance for a peace deal will not involve Putin at the table.

Second part of this is the assumption that Putin gets all the relevant information; as has been seen and even commented on by Russian people in the mil blog etc. is that there's a very high probability that Putin gets told one thing vs. what actually happens on the ground. For example we have the new battalions he's said will be raised (which has happened before without any battalions actually created) with an increase in Russian army size. We have the number of failed military projects for new weapons which is believed to be "battle ready" but in reality there are only prototypes because the funds have been siphoned away for decades. In short Putin is likely told about the great battle successes on a more or less daily basis (and this is as well driving Russia's scattershot approach to assaulting everything everywhere rather than an overarching battle plan) and kites are commonly flown about the number of Himars destroyed (at latest tally about 150% of what's sent to Ukraine) along with soldiers killed (see the 150k Ukrainian soldiers killed above for example). Russia has announced their soldiers taking the same place every day for over a week only to turn out they are not there.

Now the third part is the contentious part and that's how the sides fight the war, I'll leave it to someone better to explain this than me with the below video. But if you look at the movement in land mass during the war you can see the below video playing out clearly. Ukraine usually does big offensives taking significant chunks, then consolidate for months while Russia tries to take 100m a day instead. The fact Russia has plenty of cannon fodder is not new, what they lack is gear and equipment which ties in with what Gatling is saying however.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dkRnntSutg

jmreire · 01-02-2023 11:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189088#Comment_120189088

NATO was the excuse that Putin gave as the reason for his invasion....good cover story, but that's all it ever was, a cover story and used as justification for the invasion. Had there been no question of NATO, Putin would have manufactured one. He wanted wanted all of Ukraine back under his control, and the wealth of Ukraine flowing into his coffers, and that was one ( and maybe the main reason) but also what he didn't want was a prosperous and successful state bordering his failing Russia.

Field east · 02-02-2023 8:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189088#Comment_120189088

IMO , Ru has nullefied that act by its very invasion of Ure and ESPECIALLY by the nature of the majority of the acts carried out. As a matter of fact I reckon that the invasion has cancelled any agreement between Ru and UkrQ

odyssey06 · 02-02-2023 9:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120190468#Comment_120190468

In my opinion too.

But it might still be a useful treaty in terms of getting Ukraine into NATO on that basis.

pixelburp · 02-02-2023 9:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189850#Comment_120189850

Putin made a gamble that he had the EU in his pocket by dint of the gas pipelines or money connections, and that when push came to shove WEstern nations would simply look away when the tanks rolled up the Kyiv highways. As we are seeing it is a gamble that has backfired spectacularly and as another user opined, he's stuck now. If he pulls out or makes any move that ostensibly reads as capitulation, he'll be another victim of Russia's top killer of oligarchs: balconies.

I guess his big swing was to pull Ukraine back into the sphere that denoted his so-called "Historical Russia" before he died, a territory many there, including Putin, don't recognise as sovereign. Whoops.

eire4 · 02-02-2023 6:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186186#Comment_120186186

I would add that this is not just about Ukraine as well. This is about stopping the dictator and authoritarian regime in Russia now before if moves on to other countries and showing all authoritarian regimes and dictatorships that those of us who believe and want to live in free open and democratic societies will stand up for such.

pixelburp · 03-02-2023 9:36am

I have to say, the narrative from Zelensky to fast-track EU membership has always struck as somewhere between naive & impatient: a cursory glance at previous and current Accession processes should clearly show it's a long-haul process; ask Albania and its ongoing limbo. Obviously what's being pursued is access to funds to help rebuild and bolster an economy that's presumably now in dire straights - and by all accounts the EU would prosper with direct access to Ukraine's valued natural/agri resources, so it's not like we dont' stand to benefit either.

Presumably the fig leaf will be faster timelines into various satellite agreements similar to what Norway, Switzerland or even Turkey enjoy (with associated sliding scales of integration).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/03/eu-leaders-to-dampen-ukraines-hopes-of-fast-track-eu-membership

Sam Russell · 03-02-2023 10:22am

Ukraine needs to join the EU for internal political reasons to give its young men a reason to risk all so they can achieve that for their children and families. Whatever about the naiveté of that, it is a significant driver of their morale. The have a greater need to end up with membership of NATO, and that will be easier to achieve if the end up driving Russia out of their territory, including Crimea.

They can get their legal system on the right track fairly quickly, and perhaps rid themselves of the corruption less easily, but they are working on it with some determination and speed.

Good luck to them - they deserve to win. Who would think they would still be fighting a year after the Russian invasion?

robindch · 03-02-2023 11:23am

"What, Dear Leader, is your chief weapon?"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1621271495170297858

Gatling · 03-02-2023 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195551#Comment_120195551

I would if he's referring to the trump social media platform "Truth"

amandstu · 03-02-2023 4:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195302#Comment_120195302

Hm,I don't think many people expected Ukraine to be completely assimilated even if Kiev had fallen

That was why it was so foolish for Russia to go down this route.

Ukraine is a large country and resistance was to be expected--- just not that they might inflict humiliation on Russia in such short order.

I personally was amazed at their balls. They have put us to shame

Sam Russell · 03-02-2023 4:19pm

I think most were astonished at the huge phalanx of Russian armour stuck on the motorway heading from Belarus for Kiev at the start of the war.

Had they run out of Fuel? Perhaps their Google maps was not working.

odyssey06 · 03-02-2023 4:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196960#Comment_120196960

And sigh if only Ukraine had the weapons they have now \ are about to have now the damage they could have inflicted... long range artillery platforms and agile tank destroyer vehicles.

jmreire · 03-02-2023 8:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196960#Comment_120196960

Every time I think of that long stranded column of Ruzzian military hardware, for some reason, I always think of a squadron of A10 Warthogs bearing down on them gun's blazing. I know that the technically minded will pooh pooh the idea as being unpractical from a military viewpoint, but My God...it would have been some sight!!! ( and not to mention some destruction !!!😊.)

pixelburp · 03-02-2023 8:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195302#Comment_120195302

I'm not sure the lure of NATO / EU membership is fully driving the hearts of the average Ukrainian soldier, they have plenty of fight for with events like Bucha et al; but for sure once the dust settles and Ukraine has ousted the invaders - what next?

Clearly previous agreements have been shown to be nothing but a facade 'til the next time Russia got the urge to take more of the country, but Ukraine might quickly find that while a war might speed up the process, the EU doesn't do things in a hurry.

Hermy · 03-02-2023 9:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196928#Comment_120196928

Put who to shame? Ireland?

In what way?

jmreire · 03-02-2023 9:05pm

Amandstu, had the Ruzzian plan succeeded, and they won, the resultant resistance would make their 10 year occupation of Afghanistan look like a picnic. Slava Ukraini.

amandstu · 03-02-2023 10:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198114#Comment_120198114

I am not sure what other country would have resisted as well or as successfully..

Certainly the other Eastern Europeans had to accept their fate as the USSR crushed their resistance after the war.

We can admire them but ,if we doubt that we would have the same resolve then we are allowed to feel a certain shame.

Hermy · 04-02-2023 9:49am

Let's hope we never have to test our resolve in that manner.

pixelburp · 04-02-2023 10:40am

I don't think we can compare a country's resolve, one which contains a bedrock mindset of civilian militia, hunting and hobbyist militarism... and a country with none of that. Ukraine picked up arms because it was something they always had a foot in; Ireland has none of that culture - and TBH has never had a need to.

johnnyskeleton · 06-02-2023 12:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198090#Comment_120198090

When all the dust has settled and the fighting is done, whenever that may be and whatever the terms and the borders between them, Ukraine will have to join NATO and Putin/Russia will even want them to join, crazy as that sounds. Because, despite the rhetoric, NATO membership will mean Ukraine cannot attack Russia without risk of drawing other NATO members into the conflict.

If Ukraine is outside of, but supplied by, NATO, they pose an even greater risk than a Ukraine in NATO. They could, at least in Putin's mind, take pot shots from Crimea at the Russian fleet on behalf of NATO, but not actually by NATO.

This is the unfortunate, but inevitable, consequence of Putin's rhetoric

Field east · 06-02-2023 9:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120206945#Comment_120206945

It will be of interest how the political situation will pan out over the first, say, ten years after the ‘ end of the war’. For example, I cannot imagine the soldiers , who survived the conflict, will accept , for one second, the continuation of the involvement of any oligarch in government or to continue on their oligarc status. I can imagine that there will be a ‘ lot of levelling up’ to borrow a phrase. The whole corruption situation will probably be very much ‘fast forwarded’.

jmreire · 06-02-2023 11:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207251#Comment_120207251

In a post war Russia, if Putin or his Siloviki remain in power, there will not be any change's, because the same level of power and control that they have over Russian Citizens will remain. And even if the Siloviki remove Putin in a coup / Window / Tea incident, nothing much will change for ordinary Russian's either. Because the Siloviki are the power behind Putin, they are interdependent on each other. They control 100% all the Government and Administration departments. And they will still control everything after the departure of Putin.

A complete collapse of the federation would be needed to destroy Putin and his Siloviki regime.

johnnyskeleton · 06-02-2023 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207251#Comment_120207251

In Russia or Ukraine? I can see Ukraine utterly transformed by this process as they shake off the past and embrace a new future. I cant see much changing in Russia though

nigeldaniel · 06-02-2023 12:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196960#Comment_120196960

Russian special forces failed to take the Kyiv airport and as a result, all the plans for a grand arrival in Kyiv went up in smoke. I am convinced that the convoy was due to make a big arrival in Kyiv for Putin himself to receive in front of the cameras. A bit like the movies about D-day and all that. Putin does like his movies and copies them!!!

Field east · 06-02-2023 1:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207541#Comment_120207541

It was Ukr that I specifically had in mind. I should have stated that in my post . I see no significant change in Ru as Jmeire has posted. Although at the same time Russia may’ cop on’ and realise that it would make much more progress re improving quality of life , etc by having a peaceful ,sustainable and thrusting relationship with the west - but that’s away down the road IMO

Dohnjoe · 06-02-2023 1:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207708#Comment_120207708

Units had parade uniforms packed for the Nazi style occupation march through Kyiv that never happened. Riot police meant for crowd control after a "quick victory" found themselves on the front-line. Russian officers who had booked tables in fancy Kyiv restaurants after the invasion date were strangely unable to make it to their reservations.

amandstu · 06-02-2023 3:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207891#Comment_120207891

Starting to sound plausible to me.Are eggs being rationed in Russia or something or has the KGB been detailed to remove them from the Dear Leader's face and brass neck?

An interesting program late last night on BBC 2 about the detailed history and progress of the conflict.

Part 2 to follow (probably next week but perhaps tonight)

Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Comments