Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Agree with price seeming excessive but categorising it simply as a ‘6 bed’…it’s 975sqm. It’s over 5 times bigger than an average 5 bed house these days. More than double the size of the exceptionally large 5 bed in Foxrock.

Never understood the obsession with the fairly arbitrary measure of number of bedrooms. Rather a 300sqm ‘4 bed’ over a 180sqm ‘5 bed’ any day.

A little more digging and you would have found that there is a huge site. 1.1acre , zoned for development included, the current owner, a builder has submitted plans to Wicklow Co.Co. You describing it as “a six bed in Bray” reminds me of a famous Gerry Beades quote. It is much more than just a six bed house.

What things and how far downward?

You and many like you have been calling this for years - ye'll be right at some stage.

You'd have to show the source of those figures for poverty etc. For example, sometimes poverty is defined as something like being below 30% of the median income in a country, but that 30% might buy you a better standard of living in another country than someone just above the threshold has in Dublin for example. Compare cost of living Bilbao vs Dublin:

You'd also need to be careful using average figures, what is the situation like in terms of quality of living surveys broken down by the 30% of people in Ireland that don't own their own property versus the same group in Spain?

I'm not saying Spain is better for young people, but I've always been highly sceptical of Ireland's high score on these type of metrics, you also have to consider culture and whether people answering surveys are too proud to admit their QoL is actually bad etc.

I also wonder if people in countries with high taxation somehow feel like they are contributing more to a common system and are more likely to talk it up on some level because they've paid so much for it, but that might just be an observational correlation rather than actual causation.

Interesting, but my point is that e.g. 60% of median salary in Spain might be better than trying to live on 60% of median salary in Dublin.

All of these average statistics are pretty pointless, you need to look on an individual level is someone better off, e.g. a graduate who is looking to rent and save to buy a home or save in general.

I suspect after tax, tax and more tax and housing costs, higher cost of supermarkets etc. the disposable income left in many countries buys a better quality of life outside Ireland, even though headline salaries in Ireland seem much better. If you want to live like a hermit the bigger salary in Ireland might help to scrape together a bigger deposit if you don't spend any money but that just seems miserable.

I moved back to Ireland some years ago and a much higher salary and was surprised at the lack of any increase in overall disposable income/buying power. It's hugely expensive here to buy a house, car, groceries after huge tax deductions on your income, massively expensive childcare for some etc., you need to control for that.

i think you over estimate what the quality of life is like in spain for most people.

yes even looking at the ad it seemed apparent that there was a bigger site than just the garden and the coach house it self is over 2000 sq/m. Its looking for a developer to do a highesh end infill id guess, could be nice.

EU Taxonomy is increasingly driving investors to seriously look at the sustainability performance of their built assets by redirecting finance towards energy efficient developments. Given the current costs of building and provision for potential unknown legacy issues in the existing building, it may be more cost effective to knock down and rebuild. The building owner may also have an incoming tenant already in place. Either way, the numbers are stacking up for this to proceed. No great loss architecturally IMHO either.

Eh no I have not Kippy up until the start of last year I could only see prices going up and you can look back at my posts for confirmation on this. Last year changed my mind when prices for everything started ballooning up for everything and with antidotal stuff from family and friends talking about the price explosion in Ireland emigration seems to be loading back up for our indigenous population in the 20/30s and 40s age mark as they cannot buy or rent, I mean I had a lad out wanted him to pour a cement base for a shed for me like a 6ft by 6ft shed and he was looking for 1k (which did not include the cost of the cement), it would of taken him less than 3 hours to do. I told him where to go and **** the shed I just wont buy one now so now the people selling the shed will not be getting my business. I have cut back on the cappuccinos 4 Euro a pop in your local garage so not the premium stuff that is 5Euro+, then of course the fish and chips which used to be 6 euro is now a tenner - I have cut them out as well. The above is just a snapshot of what I am cutting back on I dont go to Dunnes or Tesco anymore its Aldi or Lidl all the way and even do I am cutting back my disposable income after tax and other necessary cost like heating etc is right down from this time 10/12 months ago. So for a FTB they have things like interest rates we could be up passed 5% by the end of the year so if you are an FTB in this country from 12 months ago if you were buying you have to now pay more (When I say more your talking anywhere from 10% to 30% in the areas below)

For the loan via interest and increase in price

more for the property

more for solicitor fees

more for stamp duty

more for insurance

more to kit the place out in furniture

more for going to work via petrol/deisel

more for eating

more for heating

more for a pint

more to eat out

more for turning a light on.

Just a little subset there are more.

At what point does this individual decide I can earn as much in Oz, the US, Canada (- the list of countries goes on) and I can afford to rent a place and actually live a little these other countries do not have the same shortcomings when it comes to rentals that Ireland has and that is a real game changer for anyone looking to live their life. Put it this way if I didn't have a house here I would be gone.

As for a prediction I can see property prices heading down in price Q4 this year and throughout 2024. The % of the drop will depend on a lot of things but currently house prices for the majority is now unaffordable and this is only going become more acute as interest continue to rise. So depending on the below we could see more or less of a drop in the timeframe I outlined.

Interest rates

War in Ukraine

Emigration

How many houses we build

Will there be a ramping up of modular homes.

If I had to put my hand out to be slapped and call it I reckon 5% - 10% by the end of 2024.

Here's another link showing that about 3 times as many people can't afford proper meals in Spain than in Ireland. It also shows every other country in Europe and by this particular metric Ireland has the second lowest level of poverty on the entire continent (which by extension probably means one of the lowest on the planet as there will only be a handful of asian / pacific countries who come close)

It's easy to go to a tourist resort and avail of low prices on your high Irish salary and see how clean and nice everything is in tourist areas (thanks to the low paid staff keeping them like that no doubt), and it's easy to write off GDP or write off various indices or write off the definition of poverty. But consistently every single statistic, metric and measurement you care to apply shows time and again that Ireland is right up there in terms of quality of life.

I've done the living abroad thing for years, not just holidaying, and my personal experience is that the grass really isn't always greener on the other side and it made me appreciate all that we have in Ireland. And while my own experience is also anecdotal, it does line up with all the international evidence from the various organizations who gather statistics and metrics.

Of course it will make a difference. These companies raising prices for manufacturing and services will see a depleted customer base as the current prices are unaffordable let alone an increase to the currently bloated price point it is already up passed the point of diminishing returns and increasing it will just exasperate this and a lot of companies will be hitting the wall in the next year.

Thing about Ireland is the taxation system is quite generous upto around the €35k mark, which is roughly what I was on when I first came to Dublin in 2013. I wasn't saving much money but I was able to live reasonably comfortably in the city centre and I did go out a fair bit. Think rent was about a third of my post-tax income.

The problem is once you get above €35k Ireland becomes rather punitive very quickly, so when accommodation costs went stupid around 2016 or 2017 the increases were magnified by what at least at time was the 52% marginal tax rate. For me the kicker was the extent that accommodation cost increase was the result of a deliberate effort to reinflate the bubble.

Bond yields are falling despite central bank raising rates.

The markets are betting central banks won't be able to last the course and will have to reverse very soon

Rates may fall as quick as they rose and inflation could take off again

Thats a great tool thanks, tide definitely turned, far more drops there and than rises.

Anyone doing similar stats for actual sale prices? I always had a logic problem in my brain trying to take any notice of reports on asking prices only.