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General British politics discussion thread

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It may be a failed ideology but I'd hesitate before dismissing it as a threat. They got their candidate in with barely any trouble at all and there's no shortage of disaster capitalist... capital on the British right. They've confirmed that they don't care one whit about the country, the people or the UK's standing in the world. To them, the UK is just a vehicle for their enrichment. There may not be many of them but they wield not inconsiderable influence via their lobbyists and "think-tanks.

    As for Truss returning, we can look back to previous Tory leaders. They went through William Hague, Iain Duncan-Smith and Michael Howard before getting to the electable David Cameron. Nobody's going to want that poisoned chalice who'd be capable of reforming the party. It needs to go into opposition before becoming fit to govern once again.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    The below poll comes out to about 59 seats for the torys, with some well placed tactical voting on the part of Labour and Lib dems they could well be the 3rd or even 4th biggest party and not even be in the position of being the official opposition. They need to be hit hard and reduced to insignificance to properly reform into anything credible.




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Does that poll take boundaries into account or is it just applying percentages to the 650-seat House of Commons?

    I don't see the Tories getting annihilated. They'll lose heavily but they'll remain the second party.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,305 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The state the Tories are in, 24% still feels far too high. Getting bumped into Opposition will just revert UK Politics to same-old-same-old, the Tories then just pivoting to attacking Labour for the mess left to them after 12+ years of "leadership". A period in the doldrums as the 3rd wheel would do the party a world of good, but it won't happen by the loks of things.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,716 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    The SNP as official opposition would certainly be interesting, but I really don't see the Conservative vote falling that low.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    The 59 number is apparently based off the 2023 proposed boundaries



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It won't.

    For one, Sir Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair. For another, there's a lot of entrenchment among Conservative and Labour voters across the country. While they're called red and blue walls for a reason, the former's experiment with Johnsonism has been an abject failure.

    That said, the system clearly favours southern England which is the blue wall area and the bulwark of the Conservative party's successes over the years along with being protection from electoral catastrophe.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,656 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Massive stretches of the country are Tory no matter what. They don't even think about before they go to vote they just know that Labour will nationalize your car and send all Eton alumni to Siberia.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Yep. I've relatives like this, including a chain-smoking aunt I never see. I suspect she's complaining about foreigners clogging up the NHS at some point now.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭Ahwell


    True, but there has been some extraordinary results in recent by-election. Yes, by-elections are a time to give the government a kicking, but they don't tend to loose safe seats. North Shropshire was conservative since 1832, yet there was the seventh largest swing in by-election history there. Chesham and Amersham had been Tory since it's creation in 1979. Tiverton and Honiton was considered one of the Conservatives safest seats. I think they are going to loose a lot of "safe" seats in the next election.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    May is going to be very interesting for the local elections. I know in the UK theres a similar disconnect between local and national party that Ireland has but things have gotten so bad there I think that line has blurred beyond anything previously seen in so much that the tories should be expecting an unprecedented wipeout especially considering they are already starting from the low levels of Theresa Mays 2019 results.

    The 1922 comitte have apparently already been discussing a rule change to allow no confidence motions depending on the local results.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,656 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Its definitely gonna be bad for the Tories but I don't think we will see a Dail 2011 type wipeout. The UK system is too binary.

    What would be considered the London influenced area has grown too. Transport links and house prices has put a lot more none Tory voters into areas like Kent which were going to endanger those seats regardless of the current crisis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,385 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    By-election tomorrow by the way. Not particularly exciting, safe Labour seat of West Lancashire after the resignation of Rosie Cooper to take up a role in the NHS.

    2023 West Lancashire by-election - Wikipedia

    Percentages the only thing of interest. Whilst it's a safe Labour seat the Conservatives do have a solid core vote which is generally around 33%, with 29% in 1997 being the lowest. Less than say 25% tomorrow would definitely be noteworthy.

    West Lancashire (UK Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    What I'm wondering is what effect, if any, our new imported culture of claiming voter fraud and the resulting restrictions will be. I've a driver's licence and my passport card. Should be ok with the former if not the latter.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Ohh yes I completely forgot about that whole sideshow. Surely that should negatively impact the tory base more than any other as older people are less likely to have ID than younger people?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Older people's travel ID's are somehow acceptable. There may be a legitimate explanation but I'm quite cynical about the whole thing. The Tories have been importing GOP tropes for some time now. This one looks particularly silly given how rigged the system already is in their favour.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Ahh of course they are, I do remember reading older peoples travel IDs are acceptable but for some reason younger peoples arent....

    Im also guessing the evidence for voter fraud they are basing the reasoning for this all on is equally as scant in the UK as it is in the US



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,716 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    If they were genuinely concerned about voter fraud they would be looking at the postal vote system. From memory that's where trouble has cropped up in the past.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    Because it is not yet possible to reverse the aging process so if you qualify based on age, you qualify for life.


    However students are not students for life and doing it this way avoids trying to claim the ID back from drop outs and those finished with college



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,385 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    But all you are doing is trying to verify their identity to an acceptable level for fraud prevention - surely it's utterly irrelevant whether they are still a student or have dropped out?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,656 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's still an ID provided by the government with their picture on it.

    And also an expiration date so it doesn't need to be claimed back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,385 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss



    And intriguingly expiration date doesn't seem to be a factor in Northern Ireland (often held up as example of how voter ID checking is already in place in the UK) as an expired passport appears to be fine.

    The Electoral Office of Northern Ireland - EONI

    "The identification document does not need to be current, but the photograph must be of a good enough likeness to allow polling station staff to confirm the identity of the holder." (their bolding, not mine)

    *****

    But on the mainland student travel cards can't possibly be acceptable because Timmy may have left his arts degree mid term. Bloody hell.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Ageing is irreversible? Seriously? This is your scintillating insight.

    If an Oyster card is valid then it should be valid for everyone. This is a political ploy and nothing else. There is no justification for this Draconian nonsense whatsoever.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,298 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Brexit Britain a close ally of Ukraine. Their President getting the red carpet treatment today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    But its about identification not whether the person can still use the travel pass they were issued by the government



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    So a person given a student id at age 18 should be able to continue to use that id when they are a 48 year old.

    Do you have no idea how people change with age, especially women?



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,656 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It has an expiration date the same as a passport does. Just make expired ones illegal.

    Old age bus passes have expiration dates too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    LOL keep digging the problem is that no student or 18+ travel cards are valid AT ALL even if they are in date for voting ID, while all OAP travel cards are valid. Even doing a quick bit of research you would discover the list of valid IDs is disproportionately weighted in favour of older people with younger people having far less options.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    …and sexist, with that! 😂

    Considering the voter ID measure was brought in late last year (Elections Act, December 2022) for elections starting this year (May 2023), complete with the asymmetric validity between (typically Tory-voting) OAPs and (typically non-Tory-voting) younglings, there’s little risk of 18 year olds altering physically so much, as to be unrecognisable from their Oyster cards in 2-3 months’ time, or even for the GE next year, is there? 🙄

    Take it from a middle aged French with a national ID card for decades (valid 5 years from issue until age 18, then 10 years thereafter), and a requirement to produce it at voting bureaux for just as long: that asymmetric validity is a political ploy by the Tories to try and bias the voting corpus, and nothing else.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    I've a German friend who uses his Driving License for Photo ID. Taken 50 years ago!



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