Six Nations 2023 - Ireland v France Build-Up Thread, Sat 11th Feb KO 2:15PM - TV: RTÉ2, ITV, France2

TRC10 · 07-02-2023 4:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120211835#Comment_120211835

Carbery started ahead of Sexton. Hansen came in at 14 for Conway. Henshaw came in for Bundee, and Baird came in for Ryan. So there were a few changes. And I think we'll get one or two this year.

R.Byrne starting and Sexton on the bench is a non-negotiable.

awec · 07-02-2023 5:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212114#Comment_120212114

Sexton was injured at the start of the 6N last year, Carbery started the first few games.

Also it wasn't that Hansen came in at 14 for Conway, it was that Lowe was fit again and came back in.

And James Ryan was injured, hence Baird.

TRC10 · 07-02-2023 5:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212160#Comment_120212160

Sexton only missed the France game. He was fit again for Italy (he was on the bench) but they started Carbery anyway.

Lowe did come back in, but Conway was first choice at 14 the November previous, and most expected Lowe would come back in for Hansen. It was interesting at the time that Hansen kept his place, not Conway.

SqueakyKneecap · 07-02-2023 5:12pm

I'd start McCloskey next weekend again because I thought he went well but I dunno if I'd risk Aki at 23 again. I know he made a positive impact off the bench but we got lucky enough to not ship any injuries in the back 3. I'd sooner have O'Brien, Larmour or another utility back there.

I think Farrell would give Aki the nod though.

Dubinusa · 07-02-2023 5:24pm

I'd go with Stu also. He is an offloading threat and his size and strength will wear France down. I checked the URC stats a couple of weeks back and Stu was leading the league in offloading.

The amount of players out injured isn't ideal but, it's expanding the depth a bit. Even lads called into the squad will benifit.

Former Former Former · 07-02-2023 6:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212114#Comment_120212114

R.Byrne starting and Sexton on the bench is a non-negotiable.

Maybe the reason you get so frustrated with Ireland is because you set these unrealistic lines in the sand all the time.

Realistically, we had one selection (Lowry) against Italy last year that was unrelated to injury, two if you count Carbery staying in over a recovering Sexton. Setting yourself up for wholesale changes this year, you're likely to be disappointed.

TRC10 · 07-02-2023 7:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212558#Comment_120212558

Setting yourself up for wholesale changes this year, you're likely to be disappointed.

Except I didn't. I said one or two. Please don't make things up that I didn't say.

07-02-2023 8:26pm

Interview with Kilcoyne and Lowe. Some good insight but was disappointed one of the journalists tried to pry into why Lowe was in New Zealand. Leave it alone.

Hadn't realised the extent of Kilcoyne's injury.

phily2002 · 07-02-2023 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120209957#Comment_120209957

Conans one of our hardest hitting tacklers, he went a Lions tour without missing a tackle...

Coombes deserves a shot but if Farrell didn't include him last week there's no chance he'll include him this week. I'd start Conan ahead of POM against France, as you said they are much more powerful and Conan would add more physicality in defense and attack.

Farrell likes POM but Coombes, Conan and Baird are all in better form this season.

phily2002 · 07-02-2023 10:52pm

Wayne Barnes is the ref. He's a good ref I always feel he goes tougher on Irish teams. Hopefully he's alright on the weekend

Akrasia · 07-02-2023 11:32pm

The ref shouldn't matter.

Winners don't make excuses when the other guy plays the game (I've started watching Suits in netflix)

Lost Ormond · 07-02-2023 11:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120213627#Comment_120213627

I dont think he does be tougher on irish sides and is there anything to back that up?

6 Nations is as important for referees as players in terms of selection for the world cup and each ref only has 1 game in the 6 nations.. 15 refs fighting for 12 places for the world cup

kuang1 · 08-02-2023 1:02am

Delighted to hear that it's Barnes.

One of the best there is and good contender for reffing the World Cup final this year.

Burkie1203 · 08-02-2023 5:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120209771#Comment_120209771

Two different players on two different teams with very different playing styles

Former Former Former · 08-02-2023 8:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120213832#Comment_120213832

dont think he does be tougher on irish sides and is there anything to back that up?

Gerry Thornley published an absolutely mental article a couple of years ago heavily implying that Barnes was biased against us. Total hatchet job and completely unprofessional.

Absolute nonsense and Barnes is the best ref around.

08-02-2023 9:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120213832#Comment_120213832

Interestingly, I had looked at this data point before.

It's a very simplistic data point (and doesn't really account for the fact that the bigger refs tend to ref us against the bigger nations), but of the 29 refs who have refereed Ireland international games (148 games) in that time period, Wayne Barnes would be ranked #24 in terms of Ireland's win ratio. We've won 7 of 18 games with him as ref, and lost 11. The refs where we've a lower win ratio are Angus Gardner (33% from 6 games) and Jonathan Kaplan (33% -1 win from 3 games). There are three refs where we never won a game with them reffing (Dave Pearson, Chris Pollack and Marius Jonker) but the sample sizes are tiny.

On the flip side, Mathieu Raynal is our good luck charm - Irish teams are 12 for 12 with him as referee. We're also 100% with a few others, including Ben O'Keeffe (4 from 4), Matthew Carley (3 from 3) and Nika Amashukeli (3 from 3).

As I said, win ratio doesn't really tell the full story. If I have an opportunity, I'll try to see if I can get the penalty count from those games, and then see if there is something in that data.

awec · 08-02-2023 9:32am

I think we're going to win this and it's going to be more comfortable than people think.

Shehal · 08-02-2023 9:35am

Imo no France performance from this season so far (Autumn internationals or Italy also week) will be good enough to win in Dublin, they'll probably need to reach the level they did versus NZL in 2021 if they want any chance especially if Ireland show up.

08-02-2023 10:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214377#Comment_120214377

Barnes has been an international ref for what, 15+ years? So his time as a ref will definitely overlap significantly with periods where we just haven't been very good. Don't think you can read into it that much, as you say.

Former Former Former · 08-02-2023 10:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214377#Comment_120214377

On the flip side, Mathieu Raynal is our good luck charm - Irish teams are 12 for 12 with him as referee.

It's funny, I've seen lots of posts over the years saying Wayne Barnes hates Ireland, we're screwed etc., but I've never seen a single one expressing delight that Raynal will be our ref and that we're guaranteed a win with him in charge.

08-02-2023 10:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214491#Comment_120214491

Yeah, that's fair. They're also skewed quite heavily to the beginning of the data set (the dreadful tail end of the Kidney era)

For context, the 11 losses under him (10 excluding a Pre RWC warm up game) are the following:

Two 6 Nations losses to France away (2010 & 2021), away to NZ (2010), home to SA (2012), a 6N loss away to Scotland (2013), and four 6N losses to Wales (2012 home, 2015 Away, 2017 Away and 2021 Away). The other one is the ignominious loss to Italy in Rome in 2013.

We've had some huge wins with him in charge too - notably New Zealand twice (Aviva in 2018 and the third test last summer), France in the 2015 Six Nations and three big wins over Scotland, including the drubbing we gave them in the 2019 RWC.

I absolutely don't think he's a bad ref, and certainly don't think he's a bad ref for Ireland.

08-02-2023 10:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214588#Comment_120214588

There's one game against Wales in there, the 2015 (or 2017? I was at both!) game I think, where I thought we didn't get a fair shake. All the other ones, we just lost.

Must love hardship · 08-02-2023 10:52am

Any potential changes for The weekend.?

Personally I'd like to see a couple.

The french pack is a bigger pack so maybe Baird if training well for POM. Or Henderson or a bierne at 6 and pom on the bench.

Also I'd like to see a change at 14 with maybe Larmour coming in and a jimmy o brien/ Osborne in the 23 Jersey.

Aki realistically could only come on at 12 the last day and that was exactly what happened even though hansen was having a poorer game up to that point than mccloskey.

I think it would be more beneficial to have a versatile player on the bench than 2 out and out 12s in the match day squad.

08-02-2023 11:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214727#Comment_120214727

I couldn't envision that amount of non-injury imposed changes.

I think the pack will be unchanged. He may bring Kelleher onto the bench if he thinks he's healthy enough.

I wouldn't drop O'Mahony for this game, and I wouldn't shift to a model where we move Beirne to 6. I don't think we should adjust our style of play to try and match them where they are strongest. We should be trying to play our game and move them around the park.

Equally can't see him making changes in the back three - I thought Hansen was good last week and would be surprised if he isn't retained.

Only possible change I envisage is Bundee in at 12 for McCloskey. I thought McCloskey had a pretty good game last week, but Aki is clearly a Farrell favourite. In that scenario, I could see JOB on the bench in the 23 shirt.

CMcsporty · 08-02-2023 11:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214164#Comment_120214164

What article was that? I've read most of his articles over the years and "total hatchet job and completely unprofessional" is not something I have ever read from him about Barnes.

If its the 2018 article you are referring to... that definitely does not fall into your categorisation.

stephen_n · 08-02-2023 12:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214393#Comment_120214393

Who hacked your account? This positivity is very confusing.

Shehal · 08-02-2023 12:54pm

The bookies have us by 5 points at the moment but more interesting rugby4cast have Ireland by 15, granted in a relatively high scoring affair.

france_ireland_2023-02-11

Pudsy33 · 08-02-2023 1:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215284#Comment_120215284

Interestingly they reckon Scotland have a better chance of toppling us than France do.

phily2002 · 08-02-2023 1:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215331#Comment_120215331

I think we'll win this weekend, maybe even by a couple of scores. Scotland will be interesting, they should beat Wales(they've bad form here), then they'll go to France with nothing to lose. A win or a close loss and they'll still be in with a shout of the championship. That would make it a really tough game for us(i think it'll be tough either way).

It's going to be interesting to see if Scotland have finally turned a corner and will become contenders or they'll come crashing back down and blow it against Wales.

Shehal · 08-02-2023 1:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215331#Comment_120215331

Well probably because its in Murrayfield.

Shehal · 08-02-2023 1:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215363#Comment_120215363

If they beat Wales they are playing us for the Triple crown at the very least so that game will be a cup final for them.

Dubinusa · 08-02-2023 1:34pm

Scotland should beat Wales. A triple crown will have them chomping at the bit.

I wouldn't underestimate them. That backline is fantastic.

pickarooney · 08-02-2023 2:05pm

They'll beat us an all of a sudden we'll be seriously considering not losing a WC QF for the first time since 2007!

Must love hardship · 08-02-2023 2:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214823#Comment_120214823

Hansen while good is not undroppable and was the poorest of a high quality back 3 v Wales.

I'm talking about rotation and bringing in another player to have a look at him. Larmour in my opinion is worth a look again at this level.

Last year Conway was brought in for the England game on the right wing and Earls started the first test v Nz. Hansen even acknowledged it himself before the tournament that he is not a guaranteed starter..

lawrencesummers · 08-02-2023 3:23pm

Interesting analysis on offtheball that statistically POM was Irelands best player against Wales.

I would have picked Doris and they did pick Keenan but on the numbers POM was most impressive.

(There is a video on tiktok)

At least two posters here would drop him for the french game, and its been a point of view that some have held (wrongly) continually for a number of years now.

Must love hardship · 08-02-2023 3:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215957#Comment_120215957

Statistics you couldn't trust them... I read that 87% of stats are made up.. 😉

08-02-2023 3:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215957#Comment_120215957

I heard that, I'm not really sure he explained exactly what POM did to statistically be our best player. What numbers was he referring to? I actually tried to go onto their website because he mentioned there was data on the Irish backrow but I couldn't find it.

Quin_Dub · 08-02-2023 4:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216098#Comment_120216098

From what I could gather this viewpoint was based on the fact that O'Mahony made no mistakes during the game.

So it seems it was a view on quality rather than quantity.

So , would you prefer a back-row that makes 4 out of 4 tackles or one that makes 11 from 12 tackles for example?

phily2002 · 08-02-2023 4:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215957#Comment_120215957

What stats, do you have a link?

It definitely wasn't defense, he was 5-1, his last 3 games he's been 9-2, 4-1 and now 5-1. That's low numbers with a poor missed percentage. He's good in the lineout and hits rucks but isnt great defensively or with ball in hand(he was OK here against Wales in fairness).

I think Coombes, Conan and Baird are all currently playing better than him so to suggest he shouldn't start isn't that outrageous.

Also check player ratings and team of the weeks out. I know they're subjective but Dorris and VDF made most I seen, POM made none. All ratings I saw had him at 6 or 7 which I think was fair...

aloooof · 08-02-2023 4:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216132#Comment_120216132

He also said it’s about what they do in unison.

So would you prefer 3 back-rows who make 11 from 12 tackles, or a back-row unit that can tackle, carry, pass, ruck, counter-ruck, jackal, maul and jump at lineout time?

phily2002 · 08-02-2023 4:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216192#Comment_120216192

But 2 of the backrow made 14 and 19 tackles and missed none. They both also do all of the above.

lawrencesummers · 08-02-2023 4:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216132#Comment_120216132

I would take 4/4 if the one missed in 12 leads to a try…

Stats can be interpreted in many ways, but when someone is coming out on top of a particular set if them it says something.

I didnt particularly notice his performance At the time.

lawrencesummers · 08-02-2023 4:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216154#Comment_120216154

Its on tiktok, doesnt have massive detail.

lawrencesummers · 08-02-2023 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216154#Comment_120216154

Your doubling down on it so.

phily2002 · 08-02-2023 4:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216266#Comment_120216266

Well I've posted his defensive stats which were poor, only backrow to miss a tackle. You said he has the best stats but have nothing to back it up other than tiktok and there's not a hope in hell I'm looking at tiktok!!

08-02-2023 4:50pm

I've mentioned it elsewhere - but will say it as part of this discussion again here. I thought O'Mahony had a solid game on Saturday.

But any statistical model that attempts to claim he had a better or more valuable game than Caelan Doris on Saturday doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

lawrencesummers · 08-02-2023 4:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216335#Comment_120216335

I think the guy that was talking wasnt actually saying he should have got MOTM but that the stats say he should have.

lawrencesummers · 08-02-2023 5:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216285#Comment_120216285

What are his defensive stats?

aloooof · 08-02-2023 5:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216241#Comment_120216241

Which suggest that’s their primary role. And neither are as good a lineout operator or jackal threat as POM.

He’s never had massive tackling or carrying or stats. Yet he earned his 90th cap last Saturday.

phily2002 · 08-02-2023 5:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216382#Comment_120216382

He made 5 tackles and missed 1, the only backrow to miss a tackle

Six Nations 2023 - Ireland v France Build-Up Thread, Sat 11th Feb KO 2:15PM - TV: RTÉ2, ITV, France2

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