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Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    What I'm denying is that there is any shift in NI that will matter to London in the next decade. London doesn't care about NI, I think we both would largely agree on this. An extension of this is that they can also ignore it and political shifts in it.

    Labour will not want to distract themselves in their first term in 20 years with a completely avoidable constitutional crisis. It is not and will not be in their interest to basically go down as "losing" another part of the UK when they want to focus on blue collar worker pay, the NHS and the relationship with Europe etc.

    (and yes, I don't think this shift is going to happen anyway and there is not really any reason to think it will).



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I disagree.

    I think the prize for a British PM of sorting the Irish question once and for all will be hard to resist for any of them. The 'losing a part of the UK' will be easily outweighed by the 'it's right and proper' brigade who recently expressed their opinions via polling. Also, the ERG will happily sarcrifice NI if it means further separation from the EU.

    We could arrive at a border poll with the British still not caring for NI but only their own selfish reasons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,482 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    Still celebrating 1690 in NI. ??

    Not exactly a “quick change” I would opine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,901 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The big picture tells you that solving the Irish question through Irish unity will encourage the Scottish independence movement and hasten the break-up of the UK at a time when the UK needs to hold together for the preservation of the monarchy and Brexit, which rightly or wrongly, are two things that the British public and politic seem very attached to.

    Given the big picture, no chance of a border poll.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So, let's put a border in the Irish sea despite telling Unionists that we wouldn't, and stabilise the Union in NI?

    Doesn't really stand up does it?

    The Scottish and NI situations viz a viz the rest of the UK have always been different.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,901 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Smaller picture stuff Francie, smaller picture stuff. Look at the bigger things going on. Any fudge to sort out Brexit is fine by London so long as bigger picture stuff is intact.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So critically destabilise a part of the union that has an International Agreement that allows it to leave that Union?

    Yet, claim they want to desparately hold on to that entity to preserve the Union?

    Credibilty being stretched again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    One step at a time!

    So the EU appear to have conceded what all posters who commented on it here said was absolutely impossible ie any compromise whatsoever on ECJ

    Still not enough and glad Uk has still not accepted it It is though a compromise that sources say is remarkable and unique. One source said ‘wow’

    well done grassroots unionist community for pushing the DUP to stay out of stormont. They must not accept this testing leak. We are now the crocodiles and we must learn from the past decades.

    one step at a time!

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-protocol-customs-deal-uk-eu-b2273356.html?amp



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Is the Protocol gone?

    Nope. As you were told, it is going nowhere.

    P.S.

    The FCDO suggested the newspaper’s report was speculative, saying officials were still engaged in “intensive scoping talks” with Brussels and declining to pre-empt the discussions.

    The Times reported that while the customs element was apparently “finalised”, the role of the ECJ and details of the veterinary arrangements were not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,610 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    If there is going to be a new election for Stormont, SF will do what it did last time when the subject of a UI came up, say nothing because a UI is one of the last things on many people's minds given the various crisis on going up there.

    In peacetime though they love to bang on about it, but when it comes to war time electioneering, they say **** all.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I wonder would that be because it isn't up for decision at the election?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,610 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Yet why endlessly talk about it during elections?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I'm confused. Are you saying they 'talk endlessy' about it during elections or they don't?

    If there is going to be a new election for Stormont, SF will do what it did last time when the subject of a UI came up, say nothing because a UI is one of the last things on many people's minds given the various crisis on going up there.

    It's a part of their manifesto/policy aims but isn't the key decision to be made at Assembly/Westminster elections.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    More movement in the right direction, but a long way to go.

    this is probably the first time in 50 years that our community has goals to chase and is making gains. Where would we be now if our people had let the dup sell us down the river?

    interesting that ni will be full of potential non-eu compliant goods. Oh deary me, how will they stop them flooding across the border - I think the uup told them how more than two years ago. We will see the lie now about this great risk to the eu. If they were telling the truth then they will obviously build customs posts at newry - but I think we all know the truth




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Maybe someone could tell me what the Ecj is required to oversee if the eu have accepted we can have non-eu compliant goods freely moving around ni. The mask is slipping



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Under the framework of 'The Protocol' which is not going anywhere. The EU compromising and doing what they said and what was said here. Unionists still saying Never Never Never.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It takes a certain amount of cheek to be asking for rights given Unionist history up to just recently.




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Spin it however you wish but we all know that if grassroots unionism had not stood up two years ago then none of these ‘compromises’ you refer to from the eu would be forthcoming.

    tony Connolly (mr EU) was on radio ulster this morning and it was a joy to listen to. He went so far as to say that if we can get all the other issues sorted out then it is unlikely the eu will let it collapse on ECJ.

    what has happened in months, I thought was going to take years. So maybe or battle that I thought would take decades will only take a year or two. We are well fed this week already!



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So you won't be voting for the DUP if the EU is flexible on The Protocol as they said they would be?

    I think you over estimate the role of Unionism here, Sunak is responding to the ERG wing in the Tories, the ERG who would let NI go to get the Brexit they want.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭martinedwards


    Much discussion in this thread about pensions etc.

    someone said that this would all be put to people before any vote.

    As someone who watched the lies, disinformation and general spin thrown around during Brexit.......

    I suspect that the water would be so muddied that folk will vote with their hearts because their brains will be fried.

    IMHO, Ireland can't afford to take on the massive unemployment bills that will land on them, along with problems like the vast majority of Teachers and civil servants in the North wont qualify for their jobs in the new Ireland because they don't have the necessary qualifications in Irish.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I feel you think I am making stuff up re dup. I certainly will not very voting dup if either the protocol is resolved or if they go back into stormont without the resolution of the protocol. I am diametrically opposed to their stance on several issues. My home is in the uup - indeed I was more comfortable with NI21 but unfortunately it imploded. I know it is difficult for you as a sf supporter to understand the concept, but my desire is a diverse ni where all identities and minorities are respected.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You are going to vote for a party that effectively want a veto for anything they don't like. from social and cultural rights to the Protocol, and in the same breath say you 'wish to live where all identities and minorities are respected'?

    That just makes zero sense.

    It doesn't make any sense to this man either and I would say most people in the UK and Ireland.


    The Protocol is a compromise, Nationalists/Republicans/The Dublin government don't want it either in an ideal world. They want to be fully in the EU as they were, BUT are prepared to compromise by having the Protocol.

    What have the belligerents in Unionism done in response to that? Insisted that they want their veto or else.

    Post edited by FrancieBrady on


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,608 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Popped into the thread.....exact same posters parroting the exact same stale points as every other time? Check.

    It's tedious folks, years of back and forth with literally the exact same practically copy/paste -able nonsense as the last time around....and the time before that....and the time before that ad nauseum.

    Those of a Nationalist persuasion remain Nationalist, those of a Unionist persuasion remain Unionist, those of a Partitionist persuasion remain Partitionist.

    The argument won't be won or lost among the entrenched posting in here.

    I could've predicted the exact names responsible for the vast majority of posts......Think I'll drop out rather than becoming part of the problem.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady



    One argument ended today in the highest court in the UK Fionn. The Protocol that the UK proposed and signed up to, is lawful in the UK and the constitutional position has not changed. Which is what has been said here.

    Subtle changes to some maybe but change all the same.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    And what does that achieve francie other than further damage the gfa - probably beyond repair.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Back up original question. One big cost you are not counting is the impact on peace and stability and the knock on impact on things like inward investment. Leo, sf, SDLP, etc pointed out recently the impact a few checks on the border could have on peace and stability, if they were right, can you imagine what they will be telling us should there be the slightest possibility of a United ireland becoming a reality



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The GFA is an agreement between Ireland and the UK.

    It is not Ireland and the DUP.

    The DUP have always been against it. And the world and the GFA moved on despite them being against it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    You are quoting my original post on this thread.

    In a United Ireland, Foreign Inward Investment will find its way to the northern counties, and more so to Northern Ireland, driven by the Irish Gov determination to make unity work. There will be no significant opposition from any section of NI if they are benefitting economically.

    The cost of a UI will depend on negotiations between the UK Gov and the Irish Gov and could be any figure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The reality is that whatever government is in place in the south come a border poll will be fully behind a UI project. As such they will have secured commitments from key players like the EU and the US.

    Long before the 1998 agreement Jimmy Carter (remember him?) committed the US to investing in 1977. That will be there again of that there is little doubt.


    I don't believe a similar commitment will be forthcoming from Westminster. In fact I think Westminster support will continue to dwindle leading to stagnation for NI as it is.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,901 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Because of changes at international level to corporation tax, Ireland will struggle during the next decade to maintain its existing share of foreign inward investment to support existing living standards in the South. There won't be surplus foreign investment for the northern counties, and it may be counter-productive to attempt to direct it there, as MNCs may then look elsewhere.

    The fallacy that there is an unlimited supply of FDI to invest in Northern Ireland should not be relied on.



This discussion has been closed.
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