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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Woah the GFS has hit the bottle early again. -12 into parts of the east for Valentine's Day. Pity all this was not at t48. I wonder willl the ECM show any support for this. If it does not and sides towards the UKMO earlier on with a flatter pattern, i think the chances of the GFS being right are not good.
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GFS 6z has basically no support other than 2 other members so the chances of this verifying are almost 0.0%
a wild cold outlier. A huge amount of scatter from 7th of February but the overall trend is to keep temperatures and precipitation close to average.
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Can someone with the required knowledge point out whether much snow is even possible on some of the GFS runs? Pressure above 1035 hPa. Can deep cold arriving override a pressure pattern that typically would be dry or very light precip. at best? The below is not a snowy chart to me but instability and all that is not my area.
By Day 10, the GFS does have thickness lowering and pressure dropping as an LP forms south of Ireland, so a snowier setup. However that seems to cut off the cold and spell an end to the pattern. But before then and previous GFS runs I would have said it'll be close but no cigar if those runs came off. Looks great for the continent though.
Honestly, if this is all put to rest in the next two days, I don't know where the GFS goes from here. It's already fallen behind both the GEM and JMA since the upgrade and resides 5th place in the model verification stats at several lead times. Sure most people wouldn't even monitor the JMA on a daily basis so where does that leave the GFS? It really really needs some sort of win soon.
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The op on somewhat of a solo run.
BUT, it has more support compared to the 00z (bottom). It has a long way to travel on its own to get to deep cold next week, nevermind the lack of any real support from other models.
Fascinating to watch all the same
Re: @John.Icy a more ENE to NE airflow would be more favourable as the sea fetch in a ESE or E is not as great for streamers. That low coming out of Biscay mind you....🤤
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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No let up from the GFS. Serious consistency all the same. The GFS has picked up the spells in early December and January.
So it's picking up the ones that count. Hopefully it'll be 3 in a row but it is literally on its Toblerone with this so I'm not breaking out the snow shovel yet.
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Yeah, rather than a total about turn we are seeing downgrades of the cold to a local pool in much of England with the deep cold well to the east . These downgrades will likely continue on the next run. Although I would be amused if it showed another potent easterly moving westwards towards us, but that is highly unlikely now. Still if the scandi high can remain firm we may get another chance after mid month when the mjo is in a more favourable phase for blocking. The danger is the westerlies get back in though and we have a couple of weeks of fully mobile weather. I am still of the view that March could be quite cold.
Wrong chart posted above - that was the pub run special from last night.
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Too true. I got lucky in my Midlands location. I was only expecting 1 or 2cm from that spell. Having said that, it wasn't a big dumping of snow or anything, far from being snowed in but the local roads required great care.
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ECM for a few runs showing little rain until later next weekend or into Monday 13th, then showing heavy frontal rain around Monday/ Tuesday with possible strong winds and blustery for a few days and introducing colder NW'lys with wintry precipitation along Atlantic coastal counties. That's if that HP can be budged. Better chance of getting the cold form that direction than from the East at this stage, GFS gone right off any source of cold . GEM very like the ECM.
The Jet looks to sink further S and as the HP slips away may introduce Atlantic weather for a time with some Polar Maritime influence ?
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The last two runs from the ECM backed off the cold, showing to be on the milder side now, some rain at times but not much in general, lots of dry spells.
Next Mon looks to hold the frontal activity, GFS also showing it , GFS much windier than the ECM. GFS does go on to show it cooler after the front goes through next Mon, GEM has pushed out the cooler air. All very.....you know....Spring like 😁
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A very mild outlook indeed. GFS similar to all other models showing either mild or exceptional mild conditions to dominate our weather over the next few weeks. After a mild January, February is on target to be exceptionally mild so this winter overall is likely to finish up milder than average despite December being slightly cooler than average. Temperatures in the low to mid teens later this week and into next weekend, if this is combined with sunshine then it will certainly deliver a taste of early Spring.
Looks very dry over the coming week but by mid month we probably will go back to a more unsettled pattern, but nothing too wet showing up on the models at the moment, certainly nowhere near the deluge conditions of the recent autumn and then the second half of December to early January period.
If we are going to get any cold this month we may have to wait till the final week of the month, however the cold is looking much more likely for March.
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CFS really going to town on delivering a significant pattern change from the final days of February and well into the month of March.
Turning chilly end of February with parts of the UK going into the freezer.
Chilly opening week of March with north-easterly winds at times but will it be cold enough for snow?
Another blast end of 1st week of March and into the second week, on this chart Ireland narrowly misses out on a direct hit.
After this we go high and dry and staying very chilly.
Later in the month we get a very cold northerly and go into the freezer in terms of upper air temperatures.
The above probably doesn't mean much as this is the CFS but it has been sticking to it's guns for quite a while now showing a very chilly March overall. Definitely a trend here for March to be quite different to what we have seen all winter.
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