Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

FrancieBrady · 09-02-2023 12:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219187#Comment_120219187

It won't require an 'unlimited supply of FDI'.

Sam Russell · 09-02-2023 1:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219187#Comment_120219187

The first responders for FDI will be those corporations that are already heavily invested in Ireland as a destination for FDI. NI could well be an attractive destination for those corporations.

As for corporation tax, since the move for minimum global rates of CT, our CT receipts have increased hugely, and it is unlikely that that will change because we have more than tax rates to attract FDI. However, we do need to be careful - housing, transport infrastructure and health all need attention.

blanch152 · 09-02-2023 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219498#Comment_120219498

Most of those who have already heavily invested in Ireland are looking to stick where they are, whether it is Intel in Leixlip or Meta in Dublin City. They won't move having already invested in those areas. Workers won't move so they are not stupid.

As for the CT minimum global rates, they aren't effective yet, and the big whammy for Ireland on that is still in front of us.

downcow · 10-02-2023 8:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218802#Comment_120218802

Take a look at recent history. Have you considered what it cost Uk to oversee six counties that contained 30% of people who did not want to be governed by them. Consider the huge costs to Ireland if overseeing six counties in which more than 30% don’t want to be governed by them. If I was Irish, living in Ireland, I would think long and hard about what a Ui would bring upon me and my family. The costs are immense.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 8:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120222615#Comment_120222615

25 years of nationalists upholding their end of the agreement they signed up to? That recent history?

Unless you are threatening that a tiny minority of a UI will engage in conflict/war because they once again don't like a democratic decision of the majority I'm not sure why you are blaming just 30% for what NI costs.

downcow · 10-02-2023 8:34am

I think there would be conflict, but whether or not there is violence, there will be a contested society, a disgruntled minority feeling it’s rights and identity is oppressed. Ireland has not had that in living memory.

unless of course you are so deluded to think that large swathes of unionist ni are just going to accept a Ui? I can’t think of a single people in the whole world who number almost 1million who just decided they will forgo their identity and culture and fully integrate into the ‘old enemy’s’ culture. Maybe you have a few examples up your Slieve

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 9:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120222639#Comment_120222639

Sorry, you'll have to explain this:

unless of course you are so deluded to think that large swathes of unionist ni are just going to accept a Ui?

Are you saying that large swathes of Unionism were bluffing when they said they 'accepted the wishes of the majority' in the GFA?

If you are saying this, how will this 'disgruntlement' manifest itself in a way that could destabilise a UI? There are many people across these islands 'disgruntled' about how they are being governed but the vast majority are democrats and behave as such.

So go on, explain what you mean here.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 9:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219498#Comment_120219498

The first responders for FDI will be those corporations that are already heavily invested in Ireland as a destination for FDI. NI could well be an attractive destination for those corporations.

Clearly we are more attractive than the 'Union' and will be moreso as Britain's departure from the EU beds in. There is zero reason that that attractiveness cannot be extended islandwide if the will and incentive is there. We know that 'outside' goodwill will be there from the EU and the US and others. It's also clear that the current downturn in the tech industry is a readjustment blip and the medium to long term outlook for Intel and other corporations here is good.

The naysayers, who will have to mount a negative campaign, will have their work cut out TBH. Not a single political party nor significant politician in the south has signalled that they will back a negative campaign.

AstraZeneca had wanted to build a new $360m “state-of-the-art” manufacturing plant in the north-west of England near its existing facilities in Warrington and Speke. Instead, said Soriot, Ireland got the nod on account of the “discouraging” tax rate in the UK.

Take AstraZeneca’s warning seriously. The UK is missing out in life sciences | Nils Pratley | The Guardian

jh79 · 10-02-2023 11:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120222729#Comment_120222729

One flaw in your argument. We need more than the current rate of FDI investment to counter the the extra cost. Population increases by 30% so hopefully FDI would too.

Question is, what part of unity encourages extra FDI? Not sure it will.

On your last point, each party is going to say they would pay for unity in different ways. The public might not like any of the proposed cuts or tax increases that are inevitable. All parties will be trying to put a positive spin on what will be extremely expensive and high risk scenario.

Question really is will any party be able to put a positive and believable proposal together?

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 11:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223185#Comment_120223185

Why is it a flaw?

It's quite clear from the Astra Z decision that we have something to exploit and that will get more potentially exploitable as we go on. FDI in '22 was at it's highest level ever according to the IDA and others. So it is 'still' growing.

Adding a region that has potential of it's own can only add to what we have to offer in terms of UI incentives from us, the US and the rest of the EU.

Only some believe it is 'high risk'. Others will be more entrepreneurial and positive about potential and the payback from investing in the future..

blanch152 · 10-02-2023 12:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223185#Comment_120223185

Hit the nail on the head there.

Disruption costs.

There is no alternative credible view to the one that a united Ireland will cost people on this island an awful lot of money. No sane taxpayer would ever vote for it.

jh79 · 10-02-2023 12:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223350#Comment_120223350

Our FDI is impressive as it is. Why would it increase in the event of a UI? What potential has a UI that Ireland hasn't got already or is different to exploit. It's not education standards, at least 20 yrs behind us. Don't think infrastructure is much better. Staff recruitment will be more difficult partly due to education but also because sectarianism is still rampant in NI.

You said above it will add to what we offer, in what way will it add? Can you think of any examples? I can't.

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 1:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218802#Comment_120218802

You say "in a United Ireland, Foreign Inward Investment will find its way to the northern counties". I would not bet on it. A disgruntled minority could very well do what the disgruntled minority did the last time: sabatage the system, kidnap and murder foreign investors / industrialists, bomb and burn etc.

And in a hypothetical United Ireland, as we have seen with all the job cuts from multinationals here recently, jobs are fickle. Our population in the 26 counties , faced with much higher taxes to pay for a U.I., will think it unfair that any new foreign investment should be directed in to the 6 counties.

Plus the northeners will not have the luxury of being able to import / export to / from mainland Britain with ease / without customs checks and import duty etc. It is still the 6th biggest economy in the world, and our closest neighbour, the north losing ties with that will have a big economic impact.

Also, if the UK is broken up, who is going to share the Norths part of the UK national debt?

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 1:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223599#Comment_120223599

Sectarianism affects a very minor part of NI.

There is no doubt that education has failed to meet the needs of students in the failed statelet as it did here for many years.

Like everything else it needs to be fixed.

The 'potential; though is to do what we did here and produce a supply of suitably educated workers that will attract investment.

FDI is increasing in this country jh, that is a fact. I think you will first see FDI invested in NI that does not require highly educated graduates.

There is no reason why FDI cannot be increased and attracted to NI.

Well there is - a failure to invest in the future.

Sam Russell · 10-02-2023 1:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223642#Comment_120223642

Well you have made a lot of assumptions in your post.

The GFA makes no mention of any financial settlement in the event of a vote in favour of a UI. What would happen if there was a vote in favour of a UI but the Irish Gov repudiated the UK demand for reparations or settlement of the UK National Debt assigned to NI by the Barnet Formula?

Already, the Welsh Assembly are asking for HS2 to be deducted as it has no benefit whatsoever for Wales. The Cross Rail project, and the Heathrow extension has no benefit either. So there is a movement there that would suggest a change.

The FDI that would move north are probably those companies that wish to expand and would see benefits to moving north. A few good examples would then encourage others.

Again, there is no blueprint for any class of settlement, so assumptions are just guesses. If the UK breaks up, then their negotiations will be with others first, so worry about that when it matters.

A lot of the excess costs for NI come from accounting assignments of national UK cost apportioned to NI, Scotland and Wales - all notional and determined by the Barnet Formula, which was a quick and temporary attempt at assessing charges to be dished out but based on nothing really..

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 1:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223788#Comment_120223788

You have made many assumptions without giving many answers. As it is, Northern Ireland is the world's top region for fintech inward investment. $500 billion flows through Belfast each day, representing 10% of the global FX market. Do you really think this would continue if N.I was not part of the G7 economy of the UK. Also, NI is one of the fastest-growing technology clusters in the UK, and offers some of the best financial incentives in Europe for inward investors. More than 1,100 international companies successfully operate in the region, including Aflac, PA, PwC, Teleperformance and Concentrix. Do you think if there was a U.I and N.I. lost access to the UK / was different country and not in the same economic zone, and with a very disgruntled minority setting off bombs and violence erupting again, investment in N. Ireland would continue? The PIRA hit ecomomic targets the last time, including kidnapping and murdering foreign industrialists and investors - do you not think that elements of the loyalist community would not take a page out of the republicans book?

The UK government has tried pretty hard to attract FDI in to N.I. and has invested billions there, plus investment from mainland British companies. In the case of a U.I. , and with Britain out of the Eurozone, it is astonishing that you think FDI would actually increase in NI instead of decrease. Especially with a left leaning government possibly incorporating SF in government in the island. Some assumption.

I think FDI would run a mile, and the French etc are already p***ed off with Ireland being an offshore tax haven. If it increased in size I think it would be the straw that broke the camels back.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 2:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223895#Comment_120223895

a left leaning government possibly incorporating SF in government in the island.

Didn't bother Astra Zeneca

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 2:27pm

I doubt if a British based company like Astra Zenica would come here if a leftist SF government was in power. Astra Zenica has already invested more in France since 2020 than they have promised to in Ireland.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 2:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224018#Comment_120224018

Here is what you said:

a left leaning government possibly incorporating SF in government in the island.

As soon as it was pointed out that one of the biggest pharma companies in the world had overlooked it's home to invest in a country that will possibly have a SF government you pivoted.

It's clear that your contention is not based on any fact at all.

Sam Russell · 10-02-2023 2:32pm

@Francis McM

No answers because there is no data to even posit answers.

These bombers and kidnappers you speak of - who are they? How much support have they got?

Many financial companies operate out of Dublin including Jacob Rees Mogg's investment vehicle. Dublin is quite favoured by many investors.

NI would be part of the EU market - a bit bigger than the London-centric UK.

I think any answers must wait until the current lot in Westminster take to looking after their duck ponds, and real politicians return to take charge. The buffoons are on their way out.

According to latest polls, the Tories will not even be the second largest party.

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224040#Comment_120224040

One swallow does not make a summer - just because Ireland is just ONE of the EU countries that British based giant Astra Zenica invests in means nothing. Multinationals can up and leave or reduce workforces, as we know only too well, even though we are an offshore tax haven for them.

Look at past history, the PIRA bombing campaign was aimed at making "the enemy's" financial interests in N.I. unprofitable while at the same time curbing long-term investment in N.I. Not content with sustained bombing campain the PIRA kidnapped and murdered foreign industrialists and investors. All with very little support to do so at the time, no MPs etc. If there was a U.I. there would be a very disgruntled minority again, I would fear that some of those for example who currently are determined enough to build 200 ft high bonfires would find an excuse to start the spiral of violence / tit for tat would erupt again and a few Gardai , good and all as they may be at speaking Irish, will not be much use in stopping such violence.

Maybe in 100 years, certainly not in our time.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 3:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224222#Comment_120224222

So you just want to engage in negative scare tactics that aren't based in any current reality.

P.S. FDI reached it's highest level ever last year...and SF where also a possible government.

blanch152 · 10-02-2023 3:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120223788#Comment_120223788

There won't be a border poll until most aspects of the future solution are clear. As for the Irish government repudiating debt attributed to Northern Ireland, you need to get realistic here. NI will have to take its share of the debt, the Irish government will be paying for pensions and civil servants, and the Irish taxpayer will be screwed.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 3:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224309#Comment_120224309

There won't be a border poll until most aspects of the future solution are clear.

Who has decreed this?

The GFA lays down the basis for a border poll and it is clear.

The Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 3:53pm

The electorate will not wish to have a border poll until most aspects of the future solution are clear. Too much to lose, like peace, relative financial stability, the NHS, the billions from London ( N.I gets more per head from London than London gives the English ), being part of a G7 economy as well as having access to the EU etc.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 4:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224546#Comment_120224546

It will be up to the SoS. The 'electorate' because it is divided will not be consulted.

And as the British courts have said he/she does not have to evidence why they believe it might pass, it is the height of Brexitian stupidity that we have not started to come up with a plan.

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 4:12pm

You are correct in that he / she does not have evidence why they believe it might pass, because all the evidence shows it would not even be a close run thing. The majority of people there want to remain part of the UK, hard to blame them.

Maybe for some other SoS in the future.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 4:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224651#Comment_120224651

Or it 'might be' for an SoS whose government decides it is time to ditch NI in order to get the Brexit they want.

Which is why with a politically volatile neighbour it is bordering on insanity for us not to have a plan in place.

Francis McM · 10-02-2023 4:33pm

"whose government decides it is time to ditch NI in order to get the Brexit they want".

lol. They cannot ditch NI until and unless the majority of people there want to be ditched. See the GFA.

FrancieBrady · 10-02-2023 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120224741#Comment_120224741

Yes, they can decide to ditch it, they may already have decided that and are pushing NI away (a suspicion of many) and the next step will be a Border Poll.

Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

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