Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

Dream on, you have been wishing "they" may have decided that for decades, and how many P.M.s have they gone through since then. I think "they" have quite enough to do on their plate now, thank you.....without trying to push a population against the terms of the GFA.

They did not decide to "do" Brexit overnight......and they put it to a referendum when they thought it was worth putting to a referendum. A lot of things changed when the UK joined the EEC, a lot of Brits weren't happy they joined, then the EEC morphed into the EU and far more Brits weren't happy. A lot of Brits could see the EU turning into a United States of Europe because it has it's own currency , Parliament and was looking to create it's own armed forces. A lot of British were not happy they were the second biggest contributers to the EEC/ EU and seeing so much of their money squandered, as they saw it. I remember meeting a hard working family from England about 19 or 20 years ago, they were here on holiday and staying in B+B's, they were astonished at all the new mansions of B+Bs built here in Ireland with EU money as they claimed. But the main reason it eventually turned into a referendum was Nigel Farage who was getting large support from Brits who weren't happy with what was going on and the 50,000 rules and regulations the UK had taken on since the EU was formed. The Tories could see the support Nigel Farage was getting and David Cameron decided to hold a referendum that he thought remain would win, but unfortunately for him and the remain camp they lost and it's been happy days ever since.

If the British government want to leave N.I. they cannot abandon it, they have to hold a referendum.

What would be the difference between "could abandon it" and "could ditch it". You think there is a big difference. Dream on. There would have to be referendum. Do not hold your breath waiting for a majority of the people in NI to want reunification and for a majority in the Republic to want the same - especially after the cost, in more ways than one, is pointed out.

He's in the SDLP is he not?

The people of the north seem to have decided reunification can be done without the SDLP. Maybe he is angry?

Paywalled article, but here is the text for those who want to see it:

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Reunification would be easier if Sinn Féin didn’t exist, says Irish unity campaigner

Author Paul Gosling says it’s self-defeating for party not to try and make NI a success, but also argues that Stormont is now so dysfunctional it can never work

Ex-Stormont aide Paul Gosling on the dysfunctionality he saw within Stormont and how Irish unity would be easier without Sinn Fein

Sam McBride, Belfast Telegraph

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Irish unity would now be far more achievable if Sinn Féin didn’t exist, the author of a book arguing in favour of reunification has claimed.

Veteran journalist Paul Gosling is convinced a united Ireland would improve the lives of people here.

The former Labour councillor, who was born in England and was baptised a Protestant, is now an atheist.

Having lived in Londonderry for over two decades, he is dismayed by what he has seen of how this place is run — and also by the behaviour of some of those pushing for reunification.

In an interview for The BelTel podcast, Mr Gosling said a senior Sinn Féin figure had told him he would never try to make Northern Ireland work.

The author of A New Ireland: A Ten Year Plan said this was short-sighted because persuading the Republic to vote in favour of unity and then ensuring the new state worked after a referendum would mean making Northern Ireland less dysfunctional.

Mr Gosling moved to Derry with his then German wife 23 years ago.

He was a Labour councillor in Leicester from 1987 to 1991, often clashing with controversial local MP Keith Vaz, before a high level career in journalism in British broadsheet newspapers.

In 2022 he left a job as an assistant to SDLP MLA Sinead McLaughlin after two years, being horrified by what he observed inside the Stormont system.

“My view [of Stormont] wasn’t as unflattering beforehand as it was afterwards,” he said.

“Everyone knows that Stormont has difficulties, but it is a completely dysfunctional system.

“I was completely appalled. The difficulty getting things done was just astonishing.

“The example which struck me more than anything else was trying to get some gullies cleaned in a part of Derry because they were causing flooding, and more than two years on, they are still blocked. I couldn’t get it done.”

He claimed “the system blocks you”, with a cadre of civil servants who “don’t expect to be told what to do, nor actually will they respond well to being asked in terms of what needs to be done”.

As well as that general inability to deliver good governance, he believes there is a particular neglect west of the Bann — some of which is down to sectarian attitudes, but which is more prevalent as a belief that if Belfast and the east of the province do well, then that will gradually benefit the west of the province.

He said it was easier to get things done as a councillor in England.

In Stormont, he claimed the Civil Service seemed to interpret its role as supporting the DUP and Sinn Féin.

No longer an SDLP member, Mr Gosling nevertheless praised the party, saying Matthew O’Toole was Stormont’s most talented MLA.

But he added “clearly the SDLP has a serious problem”, and its future is to an extent dependent on events beyond its control.

He believes if Sinn Féin entered government in Dublin and didn’t perform as well as expected, it may damage the republican party on both sides of the border.

Mr Gosling described the quality of Sinn Féin’s MLAs and TDs as “not that great”, and even some of the party’s most senior figures who he’d debated with were “not great performers”, something that hadn’t been exposed because: “I think all the parties, and also I think journalism, have let Sinn Féin off the hook a bit.”

When asked if Irish unity would be closer if Sinn Féin did not exist, he said: “Yes, because they don’t do what I’ve just said we need to do.

“I don’t think they properly talk to people from other backgrounds.

“I mean, it’s difficult because Sinn Féin [‘Ourselves alone’] hasn’t got the right name for doing it.

“Some of the things they’re doing, and some of the organisations they support, actually do move things forward.

“I think what Ireland’s Future is doing, for example, is very positive.

“I was doing an event a few years ago where I said: ‘We have to get to a position where both the DUP and Sinn Féin recognise that it’s in their interests to make Northern Ireland work’.

“And the person who was alongside me — who was at the time a very senior person within Sinn Féin — said: ‘There is no way that I will ever do anything to try to make Northern Ireland work’.

“There are parts of Sinn Féin that believe the best prospects for them winning a vote is to make Northern Ireland a failed state, a failure.

“We have to persuade Sinn Féin that it’s not in their interests.”

Paul Gosling's book sets out how Irish unity could come about

He accepted that was not the position of all in Sinn Féin, nor of its leadership today.

But he argued the party was “a very divided organisation… one of those [divisions] seems to be about whether you want genuinely to make Northern Ireland a place that works”.

Mr Gosling said the party’s IRA baggage was an impediment to persuading some people who otherwise might be open to Irish unity.

The author added he did not believe — as many republicans claim — unity is inevitable.

He said: “It’s not inevitable. I think it is likely, and I think we need to work out what we get out of this.”

While support for a united Ireland has grown from a low base before Brexit, Mr Gosling said he did not believe it was simply a pendulum which might swing back in favour of the Union, “because I think the middle ground is now so large that Northern Ireland can never be a unionist state again”.

He said unity “has to involve the abolition of Stormont… you have to move beyond Stormont” as it doesn’t work, and never will.

Mr Gosling accepted the Republic could probably not afford to take on Northern Ireland right now, given the scale of London’s subsidy for the region.

He advocates a reduction in the number of public sector workers to the levels in the Republic or England — something opposed by both the SDLP and Sinn Féin.

“There is this lazy conversation that we haven’t got enough money,” he said.

“You hear this from Conor Murphy quite a bit in terms of... the health service... that it has been underfunded.

“Well, no, the problem with the health service is not that it has been underfunded; the problem is that we haven’t reformed it… we need to have people in politics that have the guts to say we have to reform things.”

Whatever your issues are with the SDLP , this guy has a point. The way NI is being run is making unity less likely because nothing is being done to fix its economy. SF populist approach is making things worse if recent reports on budgets etc are to be believed. Support for unity within SF /SDLP voters is not where it should be and way behind support for the union amongst the other side.

Republicans need to convince their own first before worrying about chipping away at unionist support.

Of course he is the darling du jour. Have a look at who is retweeting and quoting his writing.

All we need now is FF and FG to join in.

If it criticises SF it will do.

But of course you didn't answer my question:

How far do you think an Irish Unity campaigner would get with Unionism? Would he ever get their 'permission' to hold a referendum on the issue, do you think?

You can use historical facts in your reply.

The irish unity campaigner has got his case heard and publicised in the Belfast Telegraph. If there was a possibility of a victory for the UI side in a Referendum, then I am sure there would be a referendum again. It would only be divisive if there was a referendum now, as all polls show there is not the support there for a UI victory.

What do you think of the Irish Unity campaigner / politician, who was listening to the person alongside him — who was at the time a very senior person within Sinn Féin — and who heard from the SF person : ‘There is no way that I will ever do anything to try to make Northern Ireland work’.

Do you think there are parts of Sinn Féin that believe the best prospects for them winning a vote is to make Northern Ireland a failed state, a failure?

Is that a large part of why the government in NI, of which SF has been a part of for many years, so bad?

He said " I was completely appalled. The difficulty getting things done was just astonishing."

“The example which struck me more than anything else was trying to get some gullies cleaned in a part of Derry because they were causing flooding, and more than two years on, they are still blocked. I couldn’t get it done.”

He claimed “the system blocks you”, with a cadre of civil servants who “don’t expect to be told what to do, nor actually will they respond well to being asked in terms of what needs to be done”.

You miss the point. The experienced Irish unity campaigner said " Reunification would be easier if Sinn Féin didn’t exist". He did NOT say Reunification would be easier if Nationalism didn’t exist. Big difference.

Also, you claim I said  "there is no support for a UI". I never said that. I said before, post no. 401, at the last election, afaik, Sinn Fein only got 27.9% of the vote. Dup got 28.1%. A good few Catholics, including some with good government jobs, wish to stay part of the UK. Clearly there is some support for a UI in N. Ireland, but in all the polls there is not enough support to win a possible Referendum.

2 months ago "Northern Ireland vote decisively against a united Ireland if there was a Border poll, according to an Ipsos opinion poll for a new research project into North-South relations and political views on the future of the island.

The poll shows almost twice as many voters who expressed a preference want to remain in the United Kingdom."

You really have not done your argument any favours.

Edit: and the bit where you edit about Sunningdale etc is just whataboutery going back 50 years. A lot has changed in 50 years in N. Ireland, Britain, Ireland and every country in the world, including demographics.

and who do you think worked - or currently works - hardest at making "the statelet" fail?

You still did not answer the simple question: who do you think worked - or currently works - hardest at making "the statelet" fail?

Oh so it was "dem unionists" who sought hardest and fought hardest to make N.Ireland fail? If that was so, why was it the Republicans and not dem Unionists who bombed the economic targets and kidnapped and murdered the industrialists?

Why do SF go on about the "failed statelet"? You cannot have it both ways.

And again, wWhat do you think of the Irish Unity campaigner / politician, who was listening to the person alongside him — who was at the time a very senior person within Sinn Féin — and who heard from the SF person : ‘There is no way that I will ever do anything to try to make Northern Ireland work’.

Bigotry clouds their judgement. Rather be hating the "Brits" rather than doing something that might achieve a UI.

I am not looking to have it both ways.

The statelet failed long before it went inevitably up in flames. That is fact.