Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

There will be no unity government anytime soon but I could see the UK benefiting from a cross party multi term agreement on how to proceed with Brexit. Won't happen though as the Tories can't be reasoned with or trusted.

On that meeting the word "former" is used a lot.

GB better get use to the idea of either a full 100% EU membership or the present WA+TCA with a few smaller mitigations e.g. SPS.

Having a large 'half member UK' (SM+CU) is very much not in the interest of many (most?) EU members.

(NIP is somewhat different, but only a little)

Lars 😀

The extraordinary thing is that none of the issues that are now arising were every properly debated in the run up to the referendum.

The Eurosceptic cranks on the fringes of UK politics should never have been listened to by anyone. I guess the failed / corrupt English right wing media was a big factor in all this....in any normal country, the Leave supporting cranks would have been challenged on their views and called out.

It was perfectly well defined. The told everyone that "Brexit means Brexit". Textbook explanation and definition of what was to come. That is still the definition if you ask them what it means today.

Oh, that and "taking back control".

"Ride me sideways was another one Fr."

It does not necessarily suit all 27 members. In fact it doesn't. Where I am some professional EU watchers believe the EU will not even begin any new major negotiations with the UK anytime soon. 

The EU has increased or created many new important areas which are being EU regulated e.g. digital, climate, anti tax evasion and minimum taxation (later beyond the US/G7 rules). Much is not formally part of the SM but nevertheless closely related.

It is vitally important to keep EU members and especially larger and new members entangled in all of the EU.  

When the EU again accepts new members growing to 30+ members, it is important that all behave well and are treated as equals. The UK is not nor should it be an exception here. 

The core is, however, that any substantially closer UK-EU relation than the current WA+TCA will require legal or de facto unanimity in the EU Council. I don't believe there will be support from all 27 members for anything but a full plain vanilla EU membership. Even that may not be easy to obtain unanimity support for.

Why should the EU in any way risk more trouble for itself and its members just to please England and its delusional Brexit voters?

True! But the NIP is not an important problem for NI business or for NI->GB trade - if a problem at all. For many the NIP gives new business opportunities. 

The NIP problem seems more caused by unionist being unable to accept, they are no longer a political majority. They may be just a small minority within 10-15 years.  

Such political and emotional problems can't be solved with new or changed trade rules.

Lars 😀

I think you are talking about SM/CU full membership, and reslfj is taking about the 'negotiated access' that other countries have.

There is no EU-path to a SM+CU membership. The EEA path requires the EU's approval in Council.

The path to a full EU membership is described starting with the TEU/Lisbon Article 49. EEA membership is controlled by the EU Council with 'consensus', which, I guess, is less formal, but in reality isn't much different from the unanimity vote required in A49.

Lars 😀

If Cameron wanted to stage a cynical PR stunt / sham of an advisory referendum, he should have held one on an EU Treaty. That way, even if it had gone against him, the fallout could have been handled relatively easily. To hold an advisory referendum on the UK's EU membership and the 50 year status quo was insane. Once voted for, the forces of the English right were never going to back down or compromise.

The CU Turkish deal looks good as a solution-starter on paper…but it is ill-suited to the UK economy, which is services-heavy.

Besides easing the HGV queues on the M20, which are spectacular but hardly the nexus of Brexit-related losses for UK plc, that Turkish deal would do absolutely nothing towards mitigating the 100% NTBs which the UK set back up against exporting its financial and legal services (amongst others).

Saying that, looking at the growing investment differential between the UK and its EU competition, the Turkish deal may acquire gradual relevance as UK plc slides down the rate of development.

The auld Brexits failings are the fault of the unbelievers, EU and pesky remainers is getting trotted out again in response to the secret summit.