Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

I was listening to Nolan this morning and he had two Unionist callers on who were talking angrily about how the state had failed them and if you listen to Jim Allister who was on as well, or the DUP, what they are also really talking about is how the state and the Union have failed them.

What other stakeholders are left? A few romantic partitionists?

I doubt Unionists would be in favour of this either as their majority is diminishing fast, hence their abject and failed attempts to restore their veto.

But I have no issue with a political party proposing this and having a vote on it. What you seem to want to do is impose this solution hence the deprecating posting about those who would argue against it.

when the violence returns, and our Gardai are making a ***** of trying to contain same, and our economy goes down the tube like Venezuala or Argentina, then yes, you are correct, it will be amazingly bad.

Loyalists would simply not be able to sustain a campaign that could destabilise. They couldn't do it without collusion during the conflict/war and even though they have tried they cannot bring more than a handful of Unionists on to the streets, even though the Union has been 'subjugated' etc etc.

Contrast that to Ian Paisley's days when he could muster huge rallies. The majority of Unionists accept that democratic advances towards unity are what they signed up to in the GFA, just as nationalists signed up to accepting the will of the majority.

I agree with you that actual Unification will be a carefully planned consultative and inclusive process which will sideline the belligerent and violent.

Quite simply, a 'million Unionists' are not involved in building bonfires.

Loyalism was not able to mount destabilising operations without collusion.

If they try to mount a campaign after a negotiated UI they have no allies, no weapon routes and very little support in the wider Unionist community, who have already accepted the terms of the GFA.

That is why even though there are extremists, they have not been able to forment any violence of scale to undo the mistake they made with Brexit and The Protocol.

Remember a successful UI will be in the British, US, and the rest of the EU's interests as well as Dublin's. Hemmed-in in tiny enclaves in the north of an island plot your route importing armaments with that pitted against you?

IF that is the process, it will never happen. The prolonged debate will show up the inherent problems to the electorate both North and South, ranging from education to health, to infrastructure and public transport and showing up huge differences in taxation and social welfare.

So you claim and accept collusion was able to help the last time, eg not just between Gardaí and the IRA, which resulted in the deaths of Breen and Buchanan, but in obtaining arms, landing them " anywhere around the coast of Ireland." as you claim, the aid and safe houses etc.

Last time the loyalists were able to cause enough terror / kill enough people ( including British secirity forces - image what their motivation against the taig gardai would be in a UI ). Do not forget the British state came down hard on them, shot dead 14 of them, jailed thousands of others etc. So the British army shot a lot more UDA /UVF than the Irish army did to the IRA...and which side did you say the collusion was on? The extremist loyalists have a saying "Better to die on your feet, than to live on your knees in an Irish Republic."...even if only 1% of them resort to violence, unfortunately I think that would be enough to kick things off, more tit for tat killings etc. And next time you would not have the resources of a G7 country trying to keep the peace. Anyway, as said before, a UI will not happen in our lifetime, so no need to worry too much.

If there was a UI, there may or may not be collusion , same as there was some collusion during the troubles between the Gardai and extremist republicans, as found in a tribunal. However, last time, seeing as the British army shot a lot more UDA /UVF than the Irish army did to the IRA, which side did you say the collusion was on?

They (UDA/UVF) were in enclaves in the north during the last time too, that did not stop them causing mayhem despite the might of the British army shooting dead 14 of them, imprisoning thousands of others etc.

And you say "Violent Loyalism is reduced to having meetings in rooms above pubs now.". How do you know? And during the troubles, would it not have been the same for the republican para-militaries...having meetings in rooms above pubs? I would not say it was in a 5 star hotel function room anyway. Or maybe it was, according to you they had widespread support. I could'nt care less where the extremists on both sides had or have their meetings, I support or supported neither.

And last time, there was no huge appetite in the wider Nationalist community for violence either, seeing as for most of the troubles the extremists did not get any TDs or MPs elected.

Nobody is saying that in the event of a UI the violence would be as extensive, sustained or extreme as that from Republicans in their armed struggle, but at the same time, there are some of the 900,000 or whatever who would delight in causing mayhem if they were forced in to a new Irish Republic. Cannot see them going to Bobby Sands train station, being forced to learn Irish in order to get a job or go to university, and have Nationalist history and culture forced on them, and some being imtimated or burnt out.

Anyway, as said before, a UI will not happen in our lifetime, so no need to worry too much.

If the UK were to leave, the following should be considered and brokered as part of the deal : Reparation - they would need to continue to pay a contribution for an agreed number of years. they cant just walk away scot free from a bad situation they created . as such their annual block payment would need to be phased out instead of just stopping. this gives the new entity time to make a financial success of itself . Lots of other things to consider too but for me there can be no deal where the UK get to wash their hands of things.

Well, they say "The best way to predict the future is to study the past".

And the Troubles was not a war between two governments or regimes but rather it was caused by illegal paramilitary groups from the loyalist and republican communities. You seem to be confused as to the difference between war and terrorism. The attack on Pearl Harbour was an act of war. The attack on the World Trade Centre, and on Le Mons Hotel and numerous other shopping centers, pubs etc were act of terrorism, and were not carried out by the armed forces of any nation. In the case of Pearl Harbour, the US and its allies responded to an act of war by waging war, and won.

I see no difference to be honest. Terror is terror whomsoever engages in it and regardless of Charters that legitimise some use of terror and not others.

Now can Loyalists create terror to destabilise a UI?

No, is my opinion, based on the past and the present and what would happen in the future.

Did republicans create terror in an attempt to destabilise the UK? If they did, I would say some loyalists, if they are forced in to a UI, would attempt to destabilise a UI. And instead of the might of the security services of a G7 nation to oppose them and contain them ( as they did during the troubles, when the BA shot dead 14 loyalist paramilitaries and imprisoned thousands more), there would only be the security services of the Irish state.

Correct. Also, the N. Ireland share of the UK national debt would be about 75 billion (assuming in round figures say 1.9 million people by €39,200 debt per capita). In the hypothetical event of a United Ireland we may inherit the Norths share of the UK national debt. ;) That will cost another few billion a year just to service that.

A billion would not go far in the new Irish Republic. Our overspending alone on the national childrens hospital, to make it by far the most expensive hospital in the world per bed - is something like that. The people of NI will never swap the NHS for such *****. We cannot run our own services properly, like housing and health, never mind part of another jurisdiction.

You refuse to deal with the practicalities of 2023 Loyalism, existing in enclaves and cut off from supply lines by a motivated Dublin, US, GB and EU, being able to mount a sustainable campaign capable of destabilising a state.

P.S. I didn't say a billion would go far. I made the point the British will spend on what is in their interest, just as FF/FG/Greens will.

If getting out of NI so they can graze the sunny uplands is the continuation of the subvention for a number of years then that is what they will do. You nor nobody else knows what they will do. So it is just an opinion, like mine.

Yes they would. They want out, everyone knows that so we need to do a deal that suits us, we don't have to take it back. A gradual reduction in money being handed over to ni is better than being stuck paying for something they don't want at all. We need to drive a good deal, or walk away if we need to

I have previously pointed out that there is a separate fund for Northern Ireland pensions which can easily be hived off.