If the government called a general election tonight

No party will get an overall majority at the next election and with the number of TDs going up at the next election it’s an even more unlikely situation than it has been recently.

And to me personally voting for a political party because “well they aren’t the other lot” is something I’ve never understood. I want something to vote for not vote against. Now, this has and does continue to limit my choices in elections both local and National, but I can at least I’ve used my vote wisely and for the right reason, and to me voting for a party because they aren’t another party isn’t a right reason.

The current polls show that the government will win the next election, if they want to stay together. It will be close, they will need to tie down independent support more tightly, but it wouldn't take much of a swing in an election campaign to see the current government re-elected comfortably.

So why do you post conspiracy-theory like ideas that they will deliberately leave a bigger mess?

Yeah, I can see it now.

Leo: Hey Darragh, any ideas on how we can make the housing situation any worse?

Darragh: Well, I have this cunning plan to demolish all of the social housing in the country.

Roderic: Great idea, why don't I bring in a load of Russians to do the demolition job.

Micheal: I like your ideas lads, I'm off to Moscow to sign a mutual defence treaty, gotta get ahead of the Shinners and steal their ideas.

Like where do people get these silly ideas.

Never said that they would easily win, but in response to a silly suggestion that they government from here out would deliberately turn the country into a mess, I pointed out that they can win the election. That isn't cuckoo land, because that is what the polls are suggesting.

true, the conspiracy theorists' are a funny lot, theres no conspiracy, our governments simply dont know what to do about our current and accelerating problems, our oppositions equally dont know what to do, again, poles are poles, forming governments isnt going to be easy from here on in, they will also be highly fragile and susceptible to collapse..

We both know that SF would have won way more seats in 2020 if they fielded more candidates. I was utterly shocked they won a seat in Galway West which is a 5 seater. They were normally a non entity in GW. Farrell almost topped the FPV poll and I had never heard of her. I am afraid you are deluded if you think FF and FG will win a seat each in every constituency. They were scraping for many in 2020. We shall see. Plenty of chaos to come too.

I am not saying GW would have elected two SF TDs but she came from absolutely nowhere. I don't think we ever had a SF TD before. I think she has lost her council seat in previous local elections.

Galway West is a great example of a constituency were transfers didn't matter.

The first five candidates by first preference were the five TDs elected. FF and FG will take a seat each there next time, the only question is whether O'Cuiv runs again. If he doesn't FG could take a second seat ahead of the new FF candidate. Also possible that FG could take a second seat at Grealish's expense. Catherine Connolly's vote is preventing a Social Democrat from taking the seat and also blocking SF's advance. For SF, the lack of a credible second candidate means a second seat is out of reach.

If there are changes in Galway West it is likely SD or SF instead of Catherine Connolly and FG instead of O'Cuiv or Grealish.

I never said Catherine Connolly would lose her seat, I only said that SF for a second seat or SDs for a first seat would have to take her seat.

In a five-seater, 25% evenly spread between two candidates can almost guarantee two seats. Last time out, with only 18% of the vote, (10,800 votes) FG were closest to the last seat. If they could find another 1,500 votes they wouldn't be far off, but it is extremely difficult to see how they could lose that seat in the next election, given the current polls.

To put your mind at ease though, I see no change in the constituency, subject to them all running again.

This is the sort of post that is completely blinkered to reality and to common sense.

In the by-election, the three parties combined got 61%. In the previous general election they got 49.4% between them. In saying that neither Labour, FF nor FG will take a seat in Dublin Bay South, you are forecasting a combined first preference total of around 15%.

Who will take the four seats? Chris Andrews will take one, Eamon Ryan maybe another, but do you seriously think that there will be no seats for FF, FG and Labour?

Many posters can be accused of only seeing things through their own politically-tinted glasses, but your analysis of the constituency is just complete nonsense.

Galway West is a strange constituency to be fair. I don't think Grealish will go again or retain his seat if he does. O'Cuiv is a strange one - he has many fiercely loyal voters in Connemara. If he retired, another FF candidate would struggle to get near O'Cuiv's popularity. After SF's unexpected shock election the last time out, first ever GW TD - who knows how a 2nd candidate might go. Naughton will also struggle because of the ring road issue. Kyne hasn't a hope. FFG have been promising to ease our traffic problems for a long time now and nobody believes them anymore. The SocDem candidate might just scrape in if he runs a good campaign. Connolly will top the poll.

What experience did the other 14 Ministers around her have?

Who is the socdem candidate you refer to? Hardly Owen Hanley is it?

Niall O'Tuathail. He ran the last time and did ok.

That is Denis naughtem that is not running in Galway Roscommon.

Hildegard Naugthon is from Galway West

I see . Would make an excellent candidate no doubt. I think his political career has passed he hasn't done much locally in a few years which would go against him. He has a young family i presume and is a software developer or consultant so might not have the appetite for it.

Will either of them have candidates in your constituency?

Didn’t Renua lose their Councillor in 2019?

Not exactly the same tho, is it?

TDs come and go all the time. When you vote, you vote for the candidate and/or for the party. You probably hope your choice will make it into government.

You certainly don't look at a shíte TD and say, "Well he was a crap minister but I'm gonna vote for him 'cos he has lotsa experience." And let's be honest, there have been very few good ministers in the last 12 years, no the last 20 years, the great majority of them have been pathetic, to the extent that unless they are taking care of individual constituents their records as ministers are nothing something they can safely stand on. Some people praise Enda Kenny, for instance; but when I think of him I look at the 2016 census, and see that only two counties lost population between 2011 and 2016 - and Mayo was one of those counties; Kenny - for all his 40 years' experience in the Dáil - he wasn't even able to look after his own when he became taoiseach..

In this situation of generalised ineptitude, a great many voters won't be thinking "Wow, my local TD was such a great minister that I'm going to vote for them again". A lot of people of course will continue to vote on their traditional tribal lines (ie regardless of the ministers' abilities or experience), but we're not talking about them, but about the floater who knows the Minister looking for re-election is so-and-so's son/daughter/relation but doesn't actually cut the mustard.

Do you think that to be rightwing you have to espouse Yankee libertarian ideals? because that is the impression your comment gives.

In European terms, FG is rightwing, FF is centre-right and moving further right every day.

For the sake of clarity, left and right are in the main economic stances. The rightwing stands for accumulating wealth in few hands, leftwing tries to distribute wealth throughout society so that everyone has enough.

The "woke" agenda may be considered leftwing in US terms as there is little else to distinguish between the two Big Business parties, but in European terms it is not central, although many leftwing people and movements accept a lot of its premises on the basis of tolerance/celebration of difference.