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Whither Automotive Manufacturing in UK?

  • 07-06-2019 10:13am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭


    This may be a thread mainly about economics but there are clear political factors considering the tortuous process that is Britain's exit from the EU.

    In 2013 the then popular Top Gear programme broadcast an item aimed at debunking what they thought was a prevailing impression that the UK didn't have a car manufacturing industry. It is frequently repeated on Dave TV. This was largely, they said, because there was no longer a British-owned, British based manufacturer of everyday passenger cars. Sure, there were specialist oddities like Morgans but all of what was once Rover, Jaguar, Austin Morris, Leyland etc was now either foreign owned or defunct.

    But, they said, and with some considerable justification: there is still a very healthy British automotive industry if you look more closely. What followed then was a typically Top Gear lavishly presented brilliantly filmed tribute to British car (and truck and bus) making culminating with a parade on The Mall of all that Britain has to offer in this regard. As of today you can still see it on You Tube (Link at bottom of page)

    But how have things changed since then, especially given the impending Brexit?

    The following table compares the statements made in 2013 with the situation today. I am not aware of any new developments or inward investments made since then that would not have been mentioned in the programme. If anybody knows of any, feel free to add them.

    How much of the changes, for good and ill, are due to Brexit? I only ask

    Claims made in Top Gear Tribute 2013 Situation as of June 2019
    “Today (2013) a new car rolls off a production line somewhere in Britain every 20 seconds” Using data from this site I calculated the rate of car production in no of seconds per car rollout for that year and all subsequent years. See second Table below
    Honda has a factory in Swindon where 2,700 people are employed to make the Civic, the Jazz and the CRV. Feb 2019, Honda announced plant would close by 2021.
    The Nissan plant in the north east last year (2012) made more cars than the entire Italian motor industry put together. Feb/March 2019: Nissan cancels production of Infiniti in Sunderland and abandons plans to make X-trail SUV there.
    "Last year (2012) one in three Fords sold globally had an engine made in Wales (Bridgend) or in Essex (Dagenham)" June 2019: Ford announces Bridgend plant to close in 2020
    Toyota makes cars in Derbyshire (which are then exported to Japan) Production continuing as of June 2019, although management has consistently warned of damaging consequences of “no-deal” Brexit.
    Rolls Royce plant in Sussex. Most components come from Germany, but assembly done here. 2019: Production ongoing
    All Indy car racers, every Dakar winner since 2009, 35 of the 56 starters in this year’s Le Mans including the winner, the Marusha F1 car and the Pagani Huayra all have gearboxes made by Xtrac in Berkshire Opened factory extension in November 2018
    JCBs used in nearly every country in world. Announced new cab manufacturing site on existing British site in 2018
    There are 11 F1 teams, 8 based in Britain and seven can be seen from one hill in Oxfordshire. (Williiams, Lotus, Caterham, Marusha, Force India, Red Bull and Mercedes) 2013: Ten Formula One Teams. Six based in UK, two in Italy, one each in Switzerland and US.
    75% of all R&D in Global motor sport is British (Clutch, hybrid systems, ECUs) Inexact statement, nothing to compare
    For five of the last 7 years Aston Martin is voted coolest brand in the world. Whatever
    Morgans 2019: Still being made in UK
    Triumph Bikes 2019: Still being made in UK




    Year No of seconds a new car rolls off production line in UK

    2013 20.9s
    2014 20.65s
    2015 19.88s
    2016 18.32s
    2017 18.88s
    2018 20.77s


    Maybe those more technically adroit than myself can improve the formatting of the above tables to make them more legible. It's interesting that the rate of car manufacture increased until 2016, the year of the Brexit vote, and has slowed since.

    As of June 2019, you can still see the Top Gear tribute show on YouTube. Here it is.



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,021 ✭✭✭Shelga



    But how have things changed since then, especially given the impending Brexit?

    I used to work at Jaguar Land Rover for 5 years, so can comment upon the difference between when I worked there and now, having been gone 3 years now.

    They were expanding massively, product lines were becoming huge with many variants- bloated, some might say- and new factories were springing up all over the place. Joint ventures in China and Brazil, new factory for Defender replacement in Slovakia, etc etc. All the news seemed to be good news.

    Now, they've let 4500 people go in the last month, I hear overtime is all but gone, and some factories are on 3 day weeks.

    It's hard to tell how much is Brexit-related, and how much would have happened anyway- falling diesel and China sales being the other two main factors. There were around 20k employees at JLR when I started in 2011, and nearly 40k when I left in 2016- that rate of expansion is surely too fast, and has proven to be premature and unsustainable. Then again, the car industry is cyclical in nature, so who knows.

    For companies like Ford though, people are delusional if they think the board did not discuss Brexit when trying to decide which plants to close. That's harder for JLR, as most of their output comes from within the UK.

    It's definitely an interesting time in the automotive industry in the UK, but every single day I am grateful I left it when I did, and have moved into another sector.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    Shelga wrote: »
    I used to work at Jaguar Land Rover for 5 years, so can comment upon the difference between when I worked there and now, having been gone 3 years now.

    They were expanding massively,........ All the news seemed to be good news.

    Now, they've let 4500 people go in the last month, I hear overtime is all but gone, and some factories are on 3 day weeks.

    Funny the original program didn't mention any figures about Jaguar, although they all "flew the flag" by turning up at The Mall in their Jags.

    I am not, despite appearances, a forensic follower of the UK car scene. Have there been any moves there towards investment in newer car technologies, such as battery-powered or other sustainable forms of transport?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    It's August 29th 2019 and on the front page of the Business Section of today's (paywalled) Daily Telegraph, there is this charming report stating that "Car production falls for the 14th month".

    In July, says the Torygraph in an issue top-heavy with positive comment about Johnson suspending Parliament so that the sane tendency in British politics can't stop a no-deal Brexit, "car production in the UK fell 10.6pc, the 14th consecutive month of decline as Brexit and global economic uncertainties weigh."

    The report says that a total of 108,239 cars rolled off production lines in July making a total for the year to date of 774,760 "almost a fifth down on 2018."

    To update the second table in the OP, the one that says how many seconds it takes for a car to roll off a production line in the UK, for the first seven months of 2019 and assuming that the same rate applies for the rest of the year (ie that it doesn't decline again for a 15th or 16th month) that would yield a year-to-date figure of one car every 23.64 seconds, significantly slower than the 2018 figure of one car every 20.77 seconds and behind even the Top Gear quoted figure for 2013 of one car every 20.9 seconds.

    Stuck in reverse? The Telegraph seems to think so.

    EDIT: I'm thinking of changing my Boards User name to Skibbereen Eagle :)


  • Posts: 5,518 [Deleted User]


    It's August 29th 2019 and on the front page of the Business Section of today's (paywalled) Daily Telegraph, there is this charming report stating that "Car production falls for the 14th month".

    In July, says the Torygraph in an issue top-heavy with positive comment about Johnson suspending Parliament so that the sane tendency in British politics can't stop a no-deal Brexit, "car production in the UK fell 10.6pc, the 14th consecutive month of decline as Brexit and global economic uncertainties weigh."

    The report says that a total of 108,239 cars rolled off production lines in July making a total for the year to date of 774,760 "almost a fifth down on 2018."

    To update the second table in the OP, the one that says how many seconds it takes for a car to roll off a production line in the UK, for the first seven months of 2019 and assuming that the same rate applies for the rest of the year (ie that it doesn't decline again for a 15th or 16th month) that would yield a year-to-date figure of one car every 23.64 seconds, significantly slower than the 2018 figure of one car every 20.77 seconds and behind even the Top Gear quoted figure for 2013 of one car every 20.9 seconds.

    Stuck in reverse? The Telegraph seems to think so.

    EDIT: I'm thinking of changing my Boards User name to Skibbereen Eagle :)

    You can't take the UK car industry in isolation though. The motor industry is truly global in nature and what is happening in the UK, is not happening in isolation.

    VW and Ford have announced a combined 12,000 job losses in Germany alone https://www.dw.com/en/ford-to-cut-5000-jobs-in-germany-in-savings-drive/a-47940093

    there is an often used phrase "We don't want to be the taxi driver that didn't see uber coming" when in reality, it should be the car companies, not the taxi driver, as 43% of Londoners see Uber as an alternative to owning a car. https://www.businessinsider.com/london-uber-car-ownership-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

    Great news for the Toyota Prius I guess, but bad news for JLR, Mercedes and BMW.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,422 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    20% reduction in production in a year is incredibly significant. If that continues as a trend UK car manafacturing has the same future as UK coal mining.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,193 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    20% reduction in production in a year is incredibly significant. If that continues as a trend UK car manafacturing has the same future as UK coal mining.

    They were facing the same decline in the 80s and it was only securing Nissan and Honda via surprisingly unTory incentives that recovered it. In the current environment there is basically no incentive that'd get an A-list manufacturer to enter the UK as a replacement.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭Heraldoffreeent


    Aegir wrote: »
    You can't take the UK car industry in isolation though. The motor industry is truly global in nature and what is happening in the UK, is not happening in isolation.

    VW and Ford have announced a combined 12,000 job losses in Germany alone https://www.dw.com/en/ford-to-cut-5000-jobs-in-germany-in-savings-drive/a-47940093

    there is an often used phrase "We don't want to be the taxi driver that didn't see uber coming" when in reality, it should be the car companies, not the taxi driver, as 43% of Londoners see Uber as an alternative to owning a car. https://www.businessinsider.com/london-uber-car-ownership-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

    Great news for the Toyota Prius I guess, but bad news for JLR, Mercedes and BMW.
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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    Aegir wrote: »

    Great news for the Toyota Prius I guess, but bad news for JLR, Mercedes and BMW.

    Why the Prius? What am I missing?

    Last thing I heard about Prius was that they were the number one target for Catalytic Converter thieves.


  • Posts: 5,518 [Deleted User]


    Why the Prius? What am I missing?

    Last thing I heard about Prius was that they were the number one target for Catalytic Converter thieves.

    because it is the car of choice for Uber drivers it seems. At least it appears to be in London.

    https://thetab.com/2015/12/04/why-is-every-single-uber-a-prius-64401


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,527 ✭✭✭✭Marcusm


    Aegir wrote: »
    because it is the car of choice for Uber drivers it seems. At least it appears to be in London.

    https://thetab.com/2015/12/04/why-is-every-single-uber-a-prius-64401

    Because of the congestion charge exemption although this has been tightened up now.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    UPDATE

    On today's (Oct 11th 2019) Irish Times website there is a report saying "Toyota warns its UK plants in jeopardy under No Deal".

    Quotations from Toyota Europe's VP of Sales: "a manufacturing plant that’s sending 95 per cent of its output volume into continental Europe, if ...forced to cope with 10 per cent tariffs, ..is..not really in a position to pass that on to an end customer because of the competitiveness of the market. It would be extremely difficult for us to have a competitive, sustainable business operation.”

    Also I don't think the Original Top Gear programme mentioned Wright Bus from Ballymena, currently in administration, although there were shots of some red double deckers during the "gathering" scene. In today's news an "agreement in principle" to take over the facility has been arranged with an investor though what the new owners plans are are not clear yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    And today (November 18th 2020) Nissan's COO puts pressure on Brexit negotiators to pull their fingers out and get a deal sorted before Christmas or Nissan is outta here.

    He says "If we're not getting the current tariffs....the business will not be sustainable. That's what everyone has to understand."

    See the full article in the Independent here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    And on December 8, 2000 Ineos announced that it would build its new off road vehicle the Grenadier at a plant it acquired from Mercedes in France, rather than Bridgend Wales as initially promised.

    Although not an existing operation, the promised to build in South Wales would have been significant for the region. But the French plant, already up and running, was an "offer they couldn't refuse"


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The only positive news in years. All the other good news stories for the UK motor industry have been stays of execution.

    Batteries are such a large part of an electric vehicle that importing them would make UK cars fall foul on the Rules Of Origin.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55262400
    Britishvolt signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Welsh Government in July to build the plant in St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan.

    However, the 3,000-job factory will be built in Blyth, Northumberland, after Britishvolt said it would not invest in Wales earlier this month.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    The only positive news in years. All the other good news stories for the UK motor industry have been stays of execution.

    Batteries are such a large part of an electric vehicle that importing them would make UK cars fall foul on the Rules Of Origin.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55262400

    And yet, only a week after this story was published, this appeared in the Daily Telegraph of December 18th

    "Sunderland misses out in race to build Nissan's Ariya

    Hopes that Nissan could build its latest electric car at its Sunderland plant have been dashed after the company said it would be produced in Japan.
    The giant North East plant had been in the running for production of the Ariya, but worries over Brexit's impact on car exports are thought to have contributed to it being rolled out.
    Instead the car ...will be built in Nissan's home nation, and shipped to Europe and the US.
    .....
    Almost 80pc of the 350,000 cars produced at Sunderland are exported, the bulk of them going to Europe.
    .....
    The UK has long given Japanese car makers a foothold in Europe, allowing them to build cars in Britain and export them into European markets without facing levies. But the trade deal agreed earlier this year between Japan and the EU potentially negates the need for European production.
    The agreement will see tariffs on cars produced in Japan but sold in Europe reducing to zero over several years. The deal will work in the same way on European-built cars going to Japan."

    This would suggest that the biggest threat to the "inward-investment" model of the British car-making industry is the free-trade deal between Europe and Japan. Nevertheless, it does no harm to have manufacturing of such bulky items as cars located close to a main market, if only to reduce delivery times but also as a hedge against the capricious events affecting long-distance transportation eg fuel price spikes, wars that close off certain trade routes (imagine if the Suez Canal got closed to international shipping as it was for about 10 year!), climactic events etc

    Of course, it helps if your local manufacturing plants can trade seamlessly with their main markets, which is THE essential reason for Nissan staying in Sunderland.
    So far.

    In general terms, battery manufacturing is going to be one of THE key industries for the future both to underpin the move to electric vehicles and the development of digital services, including data centres, microgrids etc etc
    I suspect the strategic importance of that industry means that it will be widely distributed throughout all major economic sectors around the globe. No one region is going to be allowed to have a lock on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,193 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Vauxhall Elsemere Port is under dire threat of full closure now, the Opel/Vauxhall bit of the mega-merged Stellantis is the weakest element by far and they've plenty of other plants - including plenty in very cheap countries.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vauxhall-factorys-fate-hangs-in-balance-pcrp832r5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭rock22


    Car sales have been massively hit by Covid. Fleet buyers, like car rental companies, have off loaded a lot of cars last year because of lack of custom.
    It will be 2022 , at least , before the car industry can see what future holds. But governments in developed world seem intend on a quick switch to electrics and any manufacturer who hasn't an electric line will be in trouble.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,193 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Stellantis's big electric push is happening under Fiat probably. Not Opel even though they had some early progress in that field.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,527 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    L1011 wrote: »
    Stellantis's big electric push is happening under Fiat probably. Not Opel even though they had some early progress in that field.

    Only because Opel adopted Peugeot running gear.

    I think after today's disastrous budget in the UK, its a dead cert that Vauxhall Ellesmere Port will close. Who knows, Vauxhall itself is probably in jeopardy at this point.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Only because Opel adopted Peugeot running gear.

    I think after today's disastrous budget in the UK, its a dead cert that Vauxhall Ellesmere Port will close. Who knows, Vauxhall itself is probably in jeopardy at this point.
    Surely no capitalist would take an opportunity to squeeze HMG for more funds or if they don't get them load the subsidiary with debts through price transfer etc.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    A few years ago I used data from this site to calculate the rate of car production in no of seconds per car rollout for 2013, the year of the Top Gear programme, and all subsequent years. I have now updated the Table that was in the original post to carry the data from the years 2019 and 2020.

    Now granted, Covid lockdowns were certainly a factor in 2020 but it's either taking half as long again to make a new car in 2020 as it did in 2013, or (more likely) production has plummeted.




    Year No of seconds a new car rolls off a production line in UK
    2013 20.9s
    2014 20.65s
    2015 19.88s
    2016 18.32s
    2017 18.88s
    2018 20.77s
    2019 24.22s
    2020 34.27



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    Surely no capitalist would take an opportunity to squeeze HMG for more funds or if they don't get them load the subsidiary with debts through price transfer etc.

    Well this is what Brexit would give them the freedom to do, as they would no longer be bound by "Brussels diktats" on unfair competition. Or so it was promised during the referendum campaign.

    And after all the cash they splashed on John de Lorean 40 years ago to produce his rubbishy sports car in an unemployment black spot, you could imagine there will be some heartfelt pleas for them to repeat the medicine for Ellesmere Port. (Of course we could point out that even De Lorean couldn't persuade the then government to promise him a limitless supply of blank cheques so he had to turn to cocaine dealing, but then the PM at the time was one Maggie Thatcher....)

    My guess is that Stellantis will beg the government for money, the Brits will say "No" and then point out that they don't want to jeopardise the Free Trade Agreement so soon by infringing the "understanding" each party has about unfairly supporting their failing industries.

    In other words, that it's STILL the EU's fault!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    it does no harm to have manufacturing of such bulky items as cars located close to a main market, if only to reduce delivery times but also as a hedge against the capricious events affecting long-distance transportation eg fuel price spikes, wars that close off certain trade routes (imagine if the Suez Canal got closed to international shipping as it was for about 10 year!), climactic events etc

    Of course, it helps if your local manufacturing plants can trade seamlessly with their main markets, which is THE essential reason for Nissan staying in Sunderland.
    So far.

    Goddamn, I'm prescient!!!

    :D


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Honda's Swindon car plant sold to logistics firm

    The plant closure is old news, but a logistics firm replacing manufacturing doesn't sound like a lot of jobs or a demand for factories.

    And how much of the logistics is Brexit related stockpiling or bulk orders to spread the new per-order costs of EU trade ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    Just to update this table to include the years 22021 and 2022 based on figures given in this report in The Times (Car industry in reverse as output crashes to lowest level in 70 years | Business | The Times) paywalled, so you might have to take my word for it.

    Year No of seconds a new car rolls off a production line in UK

    2013 20.9s

    2014 20.65s

    2015 19.88s

    2016 18.32s

    2017 18.88s

    2018 20.77s

    2019 24.22s

    2020 34.27

    2021 36.74

    2022 40.72


    In other words, car manufacturing in terms of unit has HALVED in the UK over the past 10 years. Granted, Covid has probably not helped in the past few years but a 50% drop? That can't be good in anyone's estimation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    Uh Oh. More bad news. From The Times today 14/2/2023 (paywalled)

    Ford cuts 1,300 jobs — a fifth of UK workforce | Business | The Times

    For those without a sub here are some excerpts:

    "Ford is to cut 1,300 jobs, about 20 per cent of its UK workforce, in another significant blow for the diminishing British car industry.

    It blamed the cuts, which are part of 3,800 redundancies in Europe, on the impact of its accelerating transition to become a smaller, all-electric motoring brand from 2025.

    The cost-cutting is much deeper than anticipated, with the UK disproportionately harder-hit; plans for 2,300 job losses in Ford’s larger facilities in Germany account for 15 per cent of the workforce there. The vast majority of the cuts in the UK, about 1,000, are in well-paid design engineering, research and development jobs. They will fall at the award-winning Dunton facility in Essex, one of three global technical centres of Ford worldwide.

    The other 300 positions to be axed are in white-collar administrative jobs, also falling mainly at Dunton, to which some roles were transferred after redundancies from the 2018 closure of Ford’s British headquarters in Brentwood, Essex."


    OK so we can't blame it all on Brexit. But it sure didn't help.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Wither indeed. The EU's rules of origin get stricter over time.

    The threshold for so-called originating content will climb to 45% from 2023 until the end of 2026, and to 55% from 2027. This is particularly challenging for EV production because the batteries alone, which are currently mainly imported from Asia or the US, often make up 50% of the total value of a car. ... “If batteries go out of the UK, then automotive production will go out of the UK.”

    Every time a new chassis comes out a production line has to be changed over for it and it's down to internal competition as to which factory in which country gets it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    There is an interesting possibility for automotive manufacturing.

    If the car was designed with just a small battery capable of doing, say, 100 km, but had provision for additional batteries that would add another 100 or 200 km in a suitcase that was plugged in, then the battery becomes an add-on and not part of the original manufacture. Just an idea.

    Also, the LHD/RHD issue could also become less important as the controls of the car could be designed to be easily switched from one side to the other. The old Morris Minor had the instrument in the centre of the car, and all the holes required for controls were on both sides of the car. The Renault 4 of the same vintage, in contrast, did not. The RHD version was quite different in the bulkhead. Modern EVs have the instrument panel that looks just like a tablet that could just be moved.

    Of course, if cars become self driving, there will be no driver - neither on the left or the right.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,193 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    A suitcase size of battery would add something like 20km. The batteries are the chassis, more or less, on high range EVs and addons after shipping are not viable.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 93,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    EU rules said must offer both RHD and LHD so historically they'd be doing both. Even without the EU one of the UK's main export markets is the US.

    Batteries would be half the value of the car.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,980 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    ?? Plenty of European LHD cars not offered in RHD markets and it's been that way for decades.

    In Cavan there was a great fire / Judge McCarthy was sent to inquire / It would be a shame / If the nuns were to blame / So it had to be caused by a wire.



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