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Is housing really that bad or is it just another hyped up 'crisis'?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    You do not have to wait until the mortgage is cleared in its entirety to realise the asset value you have accrued.

    You can sell at any point during and unless you have the rare scenario of negative equity, the sale value will clear the balance of the loan and then some.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Mortgage cost doesn't include capital repayments (though some appear to think it does). It is wrong to consider the capital repayments as part of the "cost of a mortgage"

    You swap the interest rate for rental income. Interest rates have increased but I don't think they would be more than the rental yield. It has been a really good deal for anyone who borrowed in the last 10 years. In making that swap you take the risk of rates increasing, but you get the upside of the time when the rent is higher than the interest.

    You take some downside risk in terms of the price possibly depreciating, but you get the upside risk as well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Do you think it would be possible for any builder to build houses on that property.

    Take the extreme scenario where you buy the site tomorrow for 1p. Do you think you would be able to organise a builder, or even do it by direct labour, and sell a house for more than it costs to build?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Mortgage costs vs cost of a mortgage is semantics - it is beside the point being made originally, which is:

    In a normal market, rent is typically less than a mortgage (monthly payments, same property). The reason being a landlord only has to cover their overheads & mortgage interest, not the entire monthly mortgage repayment. In this case, they still are making money due as they gain equity in an asset. Having a cheaper rent, shorter commitment (months-years tenancy agreement vs 25-35 yr mortgage) is one of the reasons renting appeals to people and is preferable to buying in some circumstances. This is the case the world over, Ireland is no exception (except for chronic shortage currently which has distorted both sales and rental markets)



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    I'm agreeing with you timmy on the rent v repayments.

    The only caveat is that many people rent because they cannot get mortgages at current prices, not because it is their first preference.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    One house, yea probably.

    30+ units, much harder, the original 20 odd detached units impossible.

    The only way to do it is guarantee that a approved housing body would buy them.

    That's what happened to another Phase 2 nearby in the last few years that was idle since 2007.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    Where does the idea that rent should be cheaper than a mortgage come from? Buying a property requires capital, which not everyone has, so it restricts access even if it is more desirable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    By your own details, that builder has had more than 15 years in which he could have built those houses. He could have done 2 per year.

    If you were designing a system for providing for society, would you include a provision that someone who can't manage to build two houses per year should be allowed to hoard zoned, and planning-permissioned, land?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    You need to clarify what you mean by "cheaper than a mortgage".


    Are you including any capital repayments? If so, do you mean an interest only mortgage? A 40 year mortgage, or a 15 year mortgage?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If rent cost more than mortgage payments there is almost no incentive to rent over buying - you would just buy, then sell later and youd have far fewer losses than straight up renting, as renting is dead money.

    Its mainly market forces that cause rent to be less than mortgage - its also very unusual market forces causing it to hit the current heights where rent is greater than mortgage. This is the anomaly though, its not normal.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Not the same builder, the site has changed handsat least three times since 2007.

    And I don't think building two house a year would work anyway, im not sure who would by a house in the knowledge that the estate would be a building site for 15 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well then, that builder purchased that site since the crash. What you are telling us then that he likely overpaid for it. They made a bad business decision.

    It is often the case that changes to planning etc. are not so that a builder can actually build more houses, but so the site value jumps up and the owner can flip it on to the next sucker and so on and so on.

    "I can't build because I paid a million for that site and I won't make any money from it. Please grant permission for higher density"

    Permission granted. Site flipped for 1.5m. New owner whinges:

    "I can't build because I paid 1.5 million for that site and I won't make any profit from it unless you give me tax breaks"

    At some stage we have to stop encouraging the moral hazard.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    No foreigners need apply.


    I hear you're a racist now boggles.



  • Registered Users Posts: 913 ✭✭✭thegame983


    Crisis? What crisis? The government have already outlined the solution to our housing problem.

    Step 1: give 60-80% of your monthly salary to a vulture fund.

    Step 2: stop complaining.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,719 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    I can’t see the thing being solved at all. Unlike other European countries Irish people have an obsession with ownership. Instead of renting historically. This is changing as needs must. But in other countries builders built up.

    Tall buildings. Ireland builds out with people wanting gardens etc.

    Then there is the landlords. I hear some posters boo as they read the word ‘landlord’. But even that is complex. It is not as simple as the greedy fat cat landlord v the poor tenant.

    According to the CSO the gross income for 80% of landlords is €20,000.

    And 40% of landlords with 20 plus properties have a gross income of €200k

    Yet 86% of landlords have only one or two properties. And half of all landlords only earn 10k after expenses.

    The rental system seems broken from all angles unaffordable rents for those wanting to rent. Yet on the other side of the fence the majority of landlords just ticking along. Fair play to who ever sorts it all.

    Post edited by gormdubhgorm on

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    According to the CSO the gross income for 80% of landlords is €20,000.

    Read your link before you post it:

    The actual report states that the NET RENTAL income is 20,000.


    The reason most own one or two is because they don't actually have capital to do anything. Or have the resources to ride out any blips. They are have-a-go amateurs who feel entitled to get a loan of other people's money and to have someone else pay it back for them. When things go pear shaped, they need to be bailed out. I have no problem with people investing their money. But if you jump in blindly and proceed to spend the next 10 years whinging about things you should have known in advance, I'm not going to have any sympathy for you. It is not a good model for housing provision.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    Renting isn't dead money when prices start collapsing!



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,755 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    People don't seem to like either model. There is huge criticism of large firms buying apartment blocks and renting them out, and at the same time, you get this kind of vitriol towards smaller landlords.

    There is always a need for a rental market. Jobs are more volatile and people move more often. Renting is the key option for people who want to live in different places. It is not like the 1950s where everyone lived within a few miles of where they grew up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    Don't forget give those thieves fifty percent of your salary over 40k. Then pay extortionate rents to vulture funds , to live in some co living the size of a prison cell. Working in a country with in general low pay... its the establishment wet dream !



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,431 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Anyone can buy a house and rent it out if they want. But if you buy one and 5 years later you are whinging that it isn't fair that you have to pay income tax on your income from it, don't expect much sympathy. That's hardly vitriol is it?

    Having a development of 50 apartments built and managed by a professional company is always going to be more efficient than having a builder build 50 apartments and selling each one to 50 different owners who are then trying to rent them out and manage upkeep of the common areas etc. If you've spent any time in the US you might be familiar with their distinction between "condos" and "apartments" with the latter usually offering a higher standard for anyone renting one.

    An advantage of having larger entities is that it is also easier to regulate and control them.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We have started to shift heavily towards a professional market. We have high standards when it comes to rental properties. The REITs now determine what rents should be in the Irish market. Is not what was requested?

    Was the assumption that when private landlords left the market would be flooded with an abundance of cheap accommodation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,604 ✭✭✭quokula


    Some stats Eurostat posted up today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    doesn't tell us much - for large amounts of population housing costs are at or near 0. If you own your home and have no mortgage, what are your housing costs?

    Here is a better stat from the same series, % of households with mortgage or rental arrears:

    I didnt include Greece for obvious reasons.

    Even after 4 consecutive big dips 2014-18, it started to rise again before covid. Many people identified our crisis situation in housing developing in 2016, by 2019 it was clearly unsustainable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,952 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    How are we so low in the first chart and an exponential outlier at the high side in the second?

    We are that bad at managing personal finance? Would be interesting to see a comparison with the UK. We arguably have more in common with the UK than the EU26.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    we were worse off in 08 than most of europe (2nd to greece), so there are still a lot of debts from then. House prices bubble and people buying a home, leveraging it as collateral to buy a new one shortly after - a lot of big debts out there.

    The inability to do repossessions also mean that some near unpayable housing debts are still there having been passed from fund to fund, rather than the collateral on the loan claimed and the loan written off. Realistically a large no. of these debts will never be repaid, just token amounts if anything.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It probably because Ireland takes a softer approach to arrears than most other countries. Just because you are in arrears doesnt mean you dont have the ability to pay.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,952 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Yes I agree with both of you, we don't allow reposession and we dont generally allow eviction of tenants and we tend not to cut off utilities either. Explains a lot actually!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,604 ✭✭✭quokula



    One graph shows that housing is more affordable in Ireland than most countries, relative to our wages.

    The second graph shows that in most countries you’ll get evicted if you don’t pay your mortgage but in Ireland far more people are able to carry on in arrears without any consequences.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 pod6611


    I am going to be so bold as to add a perspective to this topic.

    I have a rental property in London from my time living there. It has a significant mortgage but cashed in would still give me enough to buy an apartment here mortgage free. My costs are high in London and the rental return is poor when compared with what I can get here. I have given thought to cashing it in perhaps to buy a rental property here which possibly my kids might ultimately use when in college. Why am I not doing so? The legislative environment for landlords, specifically the imbalance in the relationship with tenants e.g . the inability to deal on a timely basis with troublesome tenants, the general lack of support from the RTB and the lack of any certainty in terms of future legislation (especially if Sinn Fein come to power), the environment just seems to becoming more and more anti landlord. I one million percent agree it should be easier to buy ones own home, that is a separate issue though however there will always be a need to rent in various circumstances. And big institutions are not going to provide rental properties in small towns and villages. Therefore small landlords are important.

    I had a rental property in Ireland that my ex wife now owns. I had a long term tenant that was renting at close to 50% of market value. I was fine with this as I knew the tenant a long time, she was low maintenance and also allowing for her personal circumstances. However once the tenant moved out the ability to move anywhere close to market value was gone with a number of associated ramifications for any investor.

    So in summary my perspective is that the challenges from a landlords viewpoint are not necessarily taxes etc... but the anti landlord legislative environment and the unfairness/ramifications around rent controls for what have been decent landlords. Small landlords are not the root of all evil, most are decent to their tenants and provide a valuable service.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    I would also like to buy a house to rent out and maybe live in in future, but how can you do that if the tenants can never be told you have to leave your contract is up?

    From overseas the tax is 20% min which is fine but in Ireland I would be paying 50% on the rental income I guess. So the while thing is a balls up.



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