Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA
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Might be something they will look at - a co-sovereign fund to deal with some of the transition costs. It would give an element of security to nervous Unionists who might accept the will of the majority but who have misgivings about the future.
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The billion you want for your fund would not go very far. Do not forget the N. Ireland share of the UK national debt would be about 75 billion (assuming in round figures say 1.9 million people by €39,200 debt per capita), so in the hypothetical event of a United Ireland we may inherit the Norths share of the UK national debt. ;). That will cost another few billion a year just to service that.
Pensions are paid out of current tax receipts each year. That is the same in Ireland as in UK. The taxes that people pay in 2023 in N. Ireland go towards the pensions of people in 2023 in N. Ireland. There is no seperate fund.
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I didn't say a billion would go very far. Please read the post properly.
Money can be found if something is in the interests of a government...almost any government you care to mention.
Your take on pensions has been challenged by another poster and that ground has been covered.
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I did read it and it was you who mentioned "one billion".
Also, the pensions situation has been pointed out to you before.
Here is another take on it, this time if it were Scotland to leave the UK. If the UK was to split up, you could not expect one part of the UK that was left to pay the pensions of all of the once UK if it did not have all of the taxpayers of the once UK.
“The state pension is much more like a standard benefit – it’s paid through this year’s tax contributions and borrowing rather than through historic accumulation,” explains David Eiser, a senior knowledge exchange fellow at the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute.
“As an individual you have no right to the contributions you have made in the past and the government has no pension pot either. National Insurance is better thought of as any other tax really – it raises revenue and the government spends it in the current year.”
Independent pensions consultant John Ralfe believes that makes answering the question of what would happen to the state pension in an independent Scotland simple.
“The state pension is just a benefit like Universal Credit so you would end up saying at the point at which Scotland became independent. Old age pensioners in Scotland would receive their pension from the Scottish state and the Scottish state could change them and make them more or less generous,” he says.
“That would be the beginning and end of it, it’s very straightforward. An independent Scotland would pay old age pensions in exactly the same way it would pay any other benefits.”
If there was a United Ireland, do you think the new Irish government would raise the pensions ( and unemployment benefits etc ) in the 6 counties ( to match the 26) or lower the pensions in the 26, or a bit of both?
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This is familiar. Quoting something without a link and leaving out the bit that doesn't suit.
This is also in that article:
While that would appear to be the only reasonable way to deal with future entitlements, campaigner and life peer Baroness Ros Altmann, who served as pensions minister in David Cameron’s government, is less convinced that is how entitlement earned in the past would be dealt with – not least because the country someone goes on to live in does not currently have any bearing on the entitlements they accrued while living in the UK. Just as any foreign national who has paid taxes for long enough has the right to receive a pension from the UK state, so too would any qualifying Scottish national.
“This is a very complex issue, but I cannot see how the UK Government could refuse to pay people the pensions they have accrued with their UK national insurance contributions over the years,” she says.
“Obviously, there would be complex negotiations to try to untangle past records, but I truly cannot see how anyone would know how many years someone paid in when living in Scotland versus the rest of the UK, how to apportion the National Insurance contribution record to different years, and all the other unbelievably complicated calculations that would be required.”
For Patrick Ring, of the Glasgow School for Business and Society at Glasgow Caledonian University, the key thing to recognise at this point in time is that both positions could be right but, equally, both could be wrong.
https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,pensions-in-an-independent-scotland-its-complicated
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Apologies for not giving the link, and thank you for so doing. The article goes on:
"Scottish taxpayers leaving the UK en masse would create an enormous headache the UK Government would likely want to negotiate away but, as it would want reciprocal agreements in place for people moving from Scotland to England post-independence, some form of compromise will have to be reached. Unless and until a separation agreement is negotiated, it will be impossible to tell what the ultimate outcome will be.
“As the state pension is pay as you go, National Insurance contributions paid in the current year are used to pay benefits due in the current year,” Ring says. “On that basis some might argue that once an independent Scotland is responsible for tax, it’s responsible for paying pensions for its citizens. On the other hand, you might argue that as the year-on-year entitlement has been accrued as a UK citizen, it should be payable by the UK. Both of these positions can be argued for and against, but I don’t think either necessarily holds absolute sway over the other.”
Pensions, it is clear, are complicated so it is no wonder there is so much confusion around how they might be dealt with in the event that Scotland breaks away from the rest of the UK – especially as the party hoping to lead that charge seems muddled on the issue itself. In the days that followed Blackford’s comments about the state pension, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was asked to clarify the SNP’s position. Though she said she accepted that “on an ongoing basis it will be for the Scottish Government to fund Scottish pensions”, she also said that how the “historic assets and liabilities” would be split would be a matter for negotiation between Scotland and the UK. "
It seems inevitable that in the event of a UI , and N.Ireland was to leave the UK instead of or as well as Scotland, then also on an ongoing basis it will be for the Irish Government to fund Irish 32 county pensions. And also how the “historic assets and liabilities” (like the portion of the UK national debt the UK has acrued on behalf of N.I. ) would be split would be a matter for negotiation between Ireland and the UK. "
That would be the same deal for Ireland as comrade Sturgeon is prepared to accept for Scotland.
Now, perhaps you could answer the question again, which you ignored last time : If there was a United Ireland, do you think the new Irish government would raise the pensions ( and unemployment benefits etc ) in the 6 counties ( to match the 26) or lower the pensions in the 26, or a bit of both?
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A UI will have to pay it's own way after a transition period. Nobody has said any different.
What those transition arrangements will be, nobody can say at this point. Those who want to engage in Brexitian scaremongering will declaim loudly that there will and can be only one set of arrangements and go on to quote only the countries and parts of articles that suit that narrative.
P.S. I don't know what a new government of a 32 county Ireland would do.
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The key question is your last one. Do you raise pensions in the North to the levels of the South? If you do, there is an additional hole of €2.5 bn a year. That is before you look at unemployment and disability payments. Historically, social welfare in the North has been lower than the South, and making everyone equal in a united Ireland will cost either southern taxpayers or southern social welfare recipients.
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We know you don't know what a new government of a 32 county Ireland would do, but do you think the new Irish government would raise the pensions ( and unemployment benefits etc ) in the 6 counties ( to match the 26) or lower the pensions in the 26, or a bit of both?
At least Nichola Sturgeon is realistic enough to understand and accept that in the event of Scotish independence then on an ongoing basis it will be for the Scottish Government to fund Scottish pensions, and how the “historic assets and liabilities” (including Scotland's share of the UK national debt) would be split and negotiated between Scotland and the UK.
You however think someone else will pay for everything in Ireland - pensions in N. Ireland, the Norths share of UK national debt etc.
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Correct and good point. I think the whole thing ( a U.I. ) would be very difficult, expensive and unworkable for all involved. No wonder California has not broken away from America, and all the other states there brokle up from one another. Would be totally unworkable too. Would be a disaster of epic proportions with ramifications worldwide. If California did break away from the USA, the rest of the States would not go out of their way to pay the pensions of those in California! Spain is another country which would not like to see others breaking up, in case it encouraged the Basque country etc etc. All in all, a UI is not going to happen, but it is quite amusing watching those who think it might during our lifetime.
Post edited by Francis McM on0 -
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The decisions relating to Scotland are wholly irrelevant to the position of NI in a UI.
First - Scotland has not left the rUK, and they have not negotiated a position acceptable to the current UK Gov, nor the Scottish people. The proposal they had in 2014 was rejected by the voters so is irrelevant. Also, the promises made to the Scottish people, should they vote to remain, were not honoured by the Tory Gov.
Second - Scotland would be leaving the rUK and could mirror everything as it currently stands. That is not the situation with a UI.
In a UI, there are two populations to consider, and two populations have to vote on the issue and accept the proposition put forward.
No propositions have been proposed yet, and to do so is a nonsense because there is no way the current Gov will do anything to allow a border poll, even if the polls were 75% in favour of a UI. They are Tories - see above.
However, if there is a vote for a UI, there will be a transition period, just as there was for Brexit. The pensions issue was huge in the Brexit negotiations, and the transition period for pensions was - I think - 40 years.
Again, there is no mention of a financial settlement in the GFA.
From post #516 above:
While that would appear to be the only reasonable way to deal with future entitlements, campaigner and life peer Baroness Ros Altmann, who served as pensions minister in David Cameron’s government, is less convinced that is how entitlement earned in the past would be dealt with – not least because the country someone goes on to live in does not currently have any bearing on the entitlements they accrued while living in the UK. Just as any foreign national who has paid taxes for long enough has the right to receive a pension from the UK state, so too would any qualifying Scottish national.
“This is a very complex issue, but I cannot see how the UK Government could refuse to pay people the pensions they have accrued with their UK national insurance contributions over the years,” she says.
That is the same point I was making. There is no separate fund for NI, it is one fund administered by HMRC, and no distinction is made as to where the employment or contribution came from within the UK.
Now the Irish Gov could augment the UK pensions paid to NI residents to be closer to Irish rates, but that would require agreement, and must be such that those living in Ireland and receiving UK pensions do not get the extra payment. It might require a means test for it to work fairly.
However, no negotiations have even been thought of yet, and it is a long way off.
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You are simply wrong with the facts - there is a separate fund for Northern Ireland, I have provided the links to prove it to you. That fund is subsidised by £500-600m a year from rUK. The rest is paid in by Northern Ireland SI contributers, who will be paying PRSI to the Irish government in a UI. So the income and expenditure are both transferring over. The only things left to consider are the two questions I raised.
(1) Who will pay for the £500-£600m gap every year? Most likely Ireland but at best it would be shared.
(2) Who will pay to harmonise the pensions, a likely €2.5 bn a year? That will 100% be on the Irish taxpayer.
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I am just going to leave it there.
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I think the new government of a 32 county Ireland will set a rate that can be paid taking into account whatever transition arrangements that have still to be negotiated.
The people of a 32 county Ireland will, like Scotland and anywhere else pay for the 'ongoing running' of the country, just as the people of the 26 county country do now.
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So not even the most vocal people in favour of a united Ireland like you would have a clue if a new government of a 32 county Ireland would do in regards to raising the pensions ( and unemployment benefits etc ) in the 6 counties ( to match the 26) or lowering the pensions in the 26, or a bit of both?
And its easy for you to say at this stage "The people of a 32 county Ireland will, like Scotland and anywhere else pay for the 'ongoing running' of the country". N Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland has admitted that in any furure Independent Scotland it will be for the Scottish Government to fund Scottish pensions, and how the “historic assets and liabilities” (including Scotland's share of the UK national debt) would be split and negotiated between Scotland and the UK. So you Francie would be in favour of, in any future United Ireland, that it will be for the new Irish Government to fund Irish pensions (inc those from the 6 counties, and including those of retired UDR/ RUC etc) , and how the “historic assets and liabilities” (including N. Irelands's share of the UK national debt) would be split and negotiated between Ireland and the UK. Interesting.
How do you feel Republicans will feel about the new Irish United Ireland paying all pensions in N. Ireland, and no pensions to their "volunteers"?
Or do you think special government pensions in a new united Ireland will be introduced for those volunteers who fought in the struggle, or have they got their their pension already ( northern bank, noraid?) do you think? The last time 60,000 individuals, who it was claimed fought in the Easter rising etc, received some form of the old IRA pension from the Irish Government after independence. How much do you think these pensions would cost? Would the new Irish government run to the money tree in the back garden and gather a fistfull of money to pay for it, and to pay for the billions of euro interest on the national debt of the six counties each year? Oh, it would be all up for negiotation, I can hear you say. So a united Ireland would be a bit like buying a pig in a poke, and putting all your assets on it? I wonder would the pig start singing uh ah up the ra ( like the Irish soccer team did even before they got the 6 counties / persuaded the unionists to join them )?
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I have already said I distrust the motives of those who claim they know categorically what will happen.
I have said what I 'think' will happen.
I have said I think there will be a transition period of as many years that it takes of joint responsibilities.
After that it is for the 32 county government and the people who live and work in all of those 32 counties to contribute taxes towards the 'ongoing' running costs of that country. As happens in any modern democracy.
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Who claimed that" they know categorically what will happen."? I certainly did not. Who did?
You have failed to come up with any plan or proposal to pay the many billions / tens of billions of extra costs on the Irish taxpayer in any future United Ireland. Oh, maybe the US and EU and UK will help us in the "transition period". Jasus, if you were on dragons den and proposing a new business, it would not be long before all of the dragons would say "I'm out".
Again, do you think special government pensions in a new united Ireland should or will be introduced for those volunteers who fought in the struggle ( like happened a century ago when 60,000 got special IRA pensions) , or have they got their their pension already ( northern bank, noraid?) do you think?
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What is your point here if you aren't claiming categorically that what I think will happen won't?
A country is not a business btw in a Dragon's Den sense. If it was, this one would be long gone off the face of the planet because of how it has been managed up to now.
P.S. If you want to discuss the IRA, open a new thread.
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You wrote that you have already said you " distrust the motives of those who claim they know categorically what will happen." Who claimed that" they know categorically what will happen."? I certainly did not. Who did?
Running a country requires financial plans. You have no proposals and cannot answer questions or come up with a realistic plan on how to pay the many billions / tens of billions of extra costs on the Irish taxpayer in any future United Ireland.
I do not want to discuss the IRA on this thread, just the cost of possible said pensions for same as that would be relevant to the thread title, "Cost of a UI..." I was asking you if you, who is a very strong advocate for a U.I, think any future United Ireland should or would be lumbered with paying IRA pensions as well as everything else? ( like happened a century ago when 60,000 got special IRA pensions)? If 60,000, like the last time, got say just €10,000 per year that they otherwise would not have got, that would be an extra €600 million per year to be found?
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If you say that what I think will happen, won't happen, - a period of negotiated transition and negotiated costs (possibly lasting up to '40' years as one poster said of the Scottish situation re: pensions) - then you are categorically making claims.
Are you saying now that it is possible it will happen?
I'm confused about your position.
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None of us can be sure in the future what will happen. If someone was to say this time 3 years ago the pubs, all non-essential shops, all cinemas etc would close for months and months nobody would have believed it. However you wrote that you have already said you " distrust the motives of those who claim they know categorically what will happen." Who claimed that" they know categorically what will happen."? I certainly did not. Who did?
A U.I could happen at some stage in the future but Iif it does I do not think it will be in our lifetime anyway. Who knows what is around the corner? Argentina began the 20th century as one of the wealthiest places on the planet. In 1913, it was richer than France or Germany, almost twice as prosperous as Spain, and its per capita GDP was almost as high as that of Canada. Now, it is impoverished, with more than half of those aged 14 and lower live in poverty, 50.9 percent, with 12.7 percent of the same group considered destitute. Another example is Zimbabwe, it used to be the bread basket of Africa in 1980 but since it got indepensdence its economy declined dramatically, with with half of the population – 7.7 million people – food insecure, and more than an estimated 90 percent of Zimbabweans are either unemployed or earn a living from some sort of informal work. Most Zimbabweans, especially those living in rural areas, survive on remittances from their relatives abroad and food aid distributed by NGOs and Western government agencies. Be careful what you wish for. No wonder Sturgeon resigned.
Now, for the fourth time,do you, who is a very strong advocate for a U.I, think any future United Ireland should or would be lumbered with paying IRA pensions as well as everything else? ( like happened a century ago when 60,000 got special IRA pensions)? And if 60,000 like the last time, got say just €10,000 per year that they otherwise would not have got, that would be an extra €600 million per year...where do you think that could be found?
Post edited by Francis McM on0 -
What's clear to me, is the fact that the most strident advocates for unification are forced to dream up these imaginary funding programs (the EU, the USA, the Brits), as a way to avoid the actual central issue.
Irish people are not interested in paying additional taxes for anything.
Obviously we all want Rolls Royce services but any political party that ran an election campaign that suggested raising taxes to pay for these services would be absolutely annihilated at the polls.
Now the big problem of the GFA for the unification lads is the fact that by removing the constitutional claim over the 6 counties, it ensured that any unification proposals must be put before the people in a referendum and there is no way to run a referendum campaign without dealing with the issue of the costs.
The GFA has effectively prevented a small cohort of single-issue zealots from gaining power and foisting unification (and the associated billions of costs) upon the ROI taxpayers.
We should all be grateful
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None of us can be sure in the future what will happen, you are correct, but we can point out what the potential outcomes are. Like you, I have not categorically predicted anything, but we can be certain that there are limited parameters.
Take the pensions issue. Northern Irish pensions are lower than Irish pensions. That gives us limited options:
(1) Cut the pension in the South to the level of the North, making a saving to the taxpayer.
(2) Increase the pension in the North to the level of the South, with a bill of €2.5 bn to the taxpayer.
(3) Average out the pensions, cutting a little in the South, increasing a little in the North, leaving the taxpayer alone.
The following are not options:
(4) The UK will pay for pensions in Ireland higher than in the UK
(5) The EU or the US will pay for increasing pensions
(6) Everything will be reinvented from scratch and a tax on unicorns and rainbows will pay for everything.
We can have a realistic discussion around the merits of (1) to (3) or we can have a pretend fantasy discussion that we can't predict the future and that (4) to (6) are on the table. I am only interested in a realistic discussion.
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And I think it will happen in our lifetime. Indeed I think it has started happening and the British are pushing NI away.
We need to prepare for it.
P.S. If a special pension is proposed for one section of the population I will consider that on it's merits be that former paramilitaries, priests, politicians etc.
Maybe tell us why you think one group of paramilitaries should be considered?
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Correct, and I have asked Francis many times, seeing as he is one of the most vocal people in favour of a united Ireland, if he had any thoughts what a new government of a 32 county Ireland would do in regards to raising the pensions ( and unemployment benefits etc ) in the 6 counties ( to match the 26) or lowering the pensions in the 26, or a bit of both?
Which option does he think would be most likely or most desireable, and if pensions, unemployment payments etc in the 6 counties were raised, where would the money come from to pay for it?
Not surprising, he dodges the question each time. He says "Money can be found if something is in the interests of a government...almost any government you care to mention." and he does not know what will happen or where any money would be found etc
We are all entitled to our opinions, and it is great that is the case.
As regards any possible payment / pension / reward to the "volunteers" who would have helped in the fight for a United Ireland, a republican leaning friend a long time ago told me he hoped that in a future United Ireland (socialist utopia!) there would be pensions for "the lads", same was there were IRA pensions for those veterans of 1916 and the war of Independence. All 60,000 of them. If there was a United Ireland, with SF in government at some stage, I would not be surprised if indeed "veterans" got some special pension, more than just getting a medal or a road or railway station named after them. That happened last time; the old IRA got a special government pension. It is sometimes what happens when an independence movement gets in to power. Look at Mugabe's Zimbabwe, he rewarded his comrades in different ways too. If there was a UI, how do you think "the lads" should be rewarded? Just naming the train station in Belfast Bobby Sands station ( seeing as our Irish train stations are named after the old IRA ) would hardly be enough? The cost of such pensions would have an implication on the cost of a UI, the title of this thread.
You do not honestly think their opposition - the ex para-militaries on the other side - would get rewarded in a UI too? I would say it would be more likely they may be "encouraged" to leave?
Francie, you say if a " special pension is proposed for one section of the population" you "will consider that on it's merits". Just supposing a UI happened and SF were in government, do you think any of the volunteers should be rewarded, and if so how many roughly and at what cost? Just so that we could get a handle on another possible cost to the new UI state, like.
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The 'proposal' to pay pensions to paramilitaries is YOURS or a 'friend' of yours. Why are you asking me questions about your own proposal?
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No I did not propose it. Look back at the posts eg post no. 532. I asked you, who is a very very strong advocate for a U.I. , do you think any future United Ireland should or would be lumbered with paying IRA pensions as well as everything else? Was wondering if you had any thoughts on it, seeing as it happened the last time ( 60,000 IRA pensions paid by the government here after independence, for decades and decades ) and seeing as if it happened it would have cost implications for a U.I, the topic of this thread.
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My advocacy of a UI has sweet nothing to do with pensions for paramilitaries.
If a future government of Ireland decides democratically to award pensions to a specific set of people then I will judge it on it's merits or demerits, just as judge policy and legislation now.
Governments since I started voting have done things I like and don't like. That is how it works, and I suspect how it will always work because I will never be a member of a political party.
I might object but ultimately I am a democrat and that is as far as it can go. If I vehemently agree or disagee I will take that into account when I get to use my franchise.
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You have posted thousands and thousands of posts heavily in favour of a United Ireland, you think the PIRA were great lads, so I find it astonishing you now would have no thoughts as to aspects of what a future United Ireland may look like.
Again I ask you, let us suppose for a second - far fetched and all as it might be - that in some years time there was a United Ireland and let us suppose Sinn Fein were in government....as they aspire to be. As noted before, just naming the train station in Belfast Bobby Sands station ( seeing as our Irish train stations are named after the old IRA ) would hardly be enough? The last time, there were IRA pensions for those veterans of 1916 and the war of Independence. All 60,000 of them. And that was when SF were not in government...God knows what it would be like if they had been. Do you think any of the volunteers should be rewarded, and if so how many roughly and at what cost? Just so that we could get a handle on another possible cost to the new UI state. It could cost the State a billion or more per year. This thread is about the cost of a United Ireland. As you are a very strong advocate for a UI, would you vote for special pensions for the comrades - say 60,000 of them again - or not? A simple yes or no will suffice.
And do you think most Republicans would like to see "the volunteers" rewarded? Seeing as it happened last time, I think it may not be unrealistic to expect that they would? When planning for a UI, it would be helpful to plan for an extra billion or two per year expenditure rather than face unexpected surprises?
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The Protocol continues to show that NI can be as productive as any other part of Ireland and that Ireland's people, as one economic unit, are better off.
I really think the penny is dropping with FF and FG here, they are readying themselves even if they wouldn't admit it.
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