Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell · 15-02-2023 12:54pm

Did the UK not have two major parties in the nineteenth century - the Whigs and the Tories that morphed in the first half of the twentieth century into the Liberals and the Tories, with the Liberals eventually able to fit their whole parliamentary party into a taxi?

Well, if the polls are to believed, the Tories might be able to fit their entire parliamentary party on a tandem.

breezy1985 · 15-02-2023 1:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120243329#Comment_120243329

The Telegraph trying to put on a Cossack hat, some overalls and a few red stars before the Trotskyites take over 🤣 to try pretend they are not the very "elites" who can't intellectually understand the core issues.

Quin_Dub · 15-02-2023 1:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120243329#Comment_120243329

This bit still shows the delusion that Brexit could have worked if only they'd tried harder/smarter

We could dwell at length on who exactly killed Brexit. But in truth, as on Agatha Christie’s Orient Express, everybody wielded the knife. It was Theresa May who squandered her parliamentary majority and thus gravely weakened Britain’s negotiating position against Brussels. It was the political class who could never see the project as more than a damage limitation exercise. And it was the Brexiteers who failed to muster a compellingly modern vision – preferring to glory in buccaneering fantasies of free trade than focus on regulatory divergence to jump-start science and tech.

This idea that Brexit itself could have worked but that it was that morons failing to deliver it properly is the problem still seems to persist.

It's not poor implementation or weak politicians or whatever other weak excuse gets trotted out - It's the fundamental idea of Brexit itself is the problem.

Until they can actually accept that fundamental fact, their is no "moving on" as someone will always say "We could try this thing to make it right?!?!"

yagan · 15-02-2023 5:19pm

Even if they sign up to a closer alignment no doubt there'll be a fringe that grow on pushing the belief that new alignment is holding back Britain etc...

ancapailldorcha · 15-02-2023 5:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120243672#Comment_120243672

It only really persists in relation to the Westminster bubble and the media. I don't think most people care about Brexit any more. This is just the Telegraph lamenting the mess it did its absolute mess to create and trying to pass the buck.

I think their focus groups will reveal how little fruit their is on the Brexit tree come next election, frankly. We left years ago.

rock22 · 16-02-2023 12:36pm

It does look like the talks are finally coming to an end with a meeting arranged between Ursula von der Leyen and Rishi Sunak at the weekend with a possible announcement mid week

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/16/sunak-von-der-leyen-northern-ireland-protocol-deal

Hopefully this can be put to bed soon.

Leroy42 · 16-02-2023 1:21pm

From all we know of Brexit, and particularly the UK ability to deal with reality, this is just another step on the path. There is little doubt that, regardless of the what is agreed, that the UK will immediately be tossed back into in-fighting and name calling.

The likes of Frost, so quick to call out the deal he negotiated, will be quick out of the gate to lament that anything apart from total defeat of the EU hsn't been achieved. yet more handwringing and cried of traitor will be thrown out, without of course any actual plan or pathway to success.

What I do find strange is that the likes of Johnson and Frost seem to have been given a completely free pass on the deal. TM and Robbins were torn apart by the likes of ERG and Johnson for even thinking of a deal, yet they are the architects of the current deal and yet are still held in high regard.

ancapailldorcha · 16-02-2023 1:23pm

Great clip of Lord Heseltine speaking in the House of Lords:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEA3RF5UZc0

He goes through his investigation of the alleged effect of regulations on wealth creation and business. He states that he wrote to every trade association and asked them to name the regulations which held them back. He got no responses.

Strazdas · 16-02-2023 1:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120248184#Comment_120248184

Most of the objections to EU membership were lies invented by hardcore Europhobes / xenophobes. They will never admit it, but even the so called 'principled' Eurosceptics of 15 years ago were in the majority of cases English nationalist xenophobes who hated Europe.

breezy1985 · 16-02-2023 2:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120248179#Comment_120248179

There has always been a "Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia" level of reporting surrounding Johnson and Brexit. It hilarious the amount of clowns who got behind him when he attacked his own deal.

Strazdas · 16-02-2023 2:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120248368#Comment_120248368

They got so used to telling lies to support the Brexit project that literally anything became possible. If Johnson had denounced the agreement and Protocol 24 hours after signing it, they would have backed him. It became a crazed ideology, an article of faith with no amount of critical thinking required.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-02-2023 9:30am

The deal in it's entirety will more than likely leak over the weekend. It's a question of how far the EU has gone to meet British/Unionist demands.

It looks to me like they've gone a long way based on what's known so far in terms of trade and the position of the ECJ which will be diluted. Remember the propaganda was that the EU was strong and right. No need to listen to the British we were told. Just ignore them we were told....repeatedly.

Now look how the same people try and dress this up. The EU being described as pragmatic, taking a hit for peace etc etc.

The EU won't be criticised for what this is - an abject surrender of it's position, the placing of permanent uncertainty over the position of a so-called member state at the behest of a neighbouring sovereign country in it's single market, and the undermining of the most basic principles of that single market in the first place.

Extraordinary. Some here would do themselves a favour if they truly believed in the EU by calling this sorry climbdown out. They won't.

rock22 · 17-02-2023 9:36am

@Kermit.de.frog wrote "I'll be back next week to trash out the EU's capitulation terms 🤭" 15th Fev

@Kermit.de.frog wrote "The deal in it's entirety will more than likely leak over the weekend. It's a question of how far the EU has gone to meet British/Unionist demands ........etc." two days later

I thought you promised to leave us alone for a week?

FrancieBrady · 17-02-2023 9:40am

No need to listen to the British we were told. Just ignore them we were told....repeatedly.

Who said this?

I am happy with the Protocol as a border dweller. I was aware that there were flexibilities built into it and they might be used. That means I was happy that they could be used. They have been and the Protocol is still in place.

The British have compromised and so have the EU. I think with the Data provisions and the ECJ as final arbiter that the EU have gotten more TBH. The ERG and Unionism are in a very perilous place if this is rejected.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-02-2023 9:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251563#Comment_120251563

The DUP, a fringe party on this island, came up with '7 tests'. The EU has delivered them all it seems. Clearly we still do what northern Unionism says as part of the EU.

ancapailldorcha · 17-02-2023 9:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251582#Comment_120251582

Or they pretend that that's the case.

Once again, the ERG and the DUP have been shown to be nothing but noisy irrelevances.

FrancieBrady · 17-02-2023 9:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251582#Comment_120251582

I disagree, and so do the bloggers of the DUP, but that remains to be seen.

Even if they did, there is very little dimunition of the Protocol in how it will work.

P.S. I think Sunak is trying to placate and neutralise the ERG more than a fringe party here.

They have agreed this deal, knowing the DUP TUV position and still went ahead with it. The fringe party are going under a bus again IMO

yagan · 17-02-2023 10:19am

I would say about 10% now is actually now information on this thread. The rest is just rebuttals to the usual trolls who for some reason are entertained and not banned, despite them clearly brigading.

Seth Brundle · 17-02-2023 10:44am

mod: @Kermit.de.frog - do not under any circumstances post in this thread again. Doing so, will result in a ban from the Politics forum.

salonfire · 17-02-2023 10:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251563#Comment_120251563

The ERG and Unionism are in a very perilous place if this is rejected.

What?

It was the ERG and the Unionists that brought the EU running back to the negotiating table. How are they perilous? They literally call the shots.

It's a moot point anyway, since the goals have now shifted away from trade to the role of the ECJ. That's going to be the new stumbling block.

Hard to see this get over the line.

Ireland will need to get used to checks between us and the EU. I don't think us or the EU have the balls to stick it to the British and put up a hard border. We could make life very difficult for NI and the British but will never use it. The soft option will be taken instead.

Seth Brundle · 17-02-2023 10:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251804#Comment_120251804

It was the ERG and the Unionists that brought the EU running back to the negotiating table. How are they perilous? They literally call the shots.

Nobody was running. The EU are always willing to discuss things with partners and potential partners so your paranoia is misplaced.

It's a moot point anyway, since the goals have now shifted away from trade to the role of the ECJ. That's going to be the new stumbling block.

Hard to see this get over the line.

That's for the British to deal with but the requirement will not change

Ireland will need to get used to checks between us and the EU. I don't think us or the EU have the balls to stick it to the British and put up a hard border. We could make life very difficult for NI and the British but will never use it. The soft option will be taken instead.

Yet more of your delirious nonsense

FrancieBrady · 17-02-2023 10:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251804#Comment_120251804

Sunak and previous government's are the one's being dictated to by the ERG not the EU.

The EU are responding to the British government and exploring the pre-existing flexibilities in the WA and Protocol.

I'm fine with that, that is what they are there for after all.

They are not re-negotiating the Protocol.

Podge_irl · 17-02-2023 10:57am

There are not going to be checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

For all the ERG and DUP's caterwauling, the NIP is essentially being adhered to. The EU have not come running back anywhere (elements of the UK have been screaming about the need to change the NIP since it came into existence) and any new arrangement will maintain Ireland's position in the SM. That is the entire point.

salonfire · 17-02-2023 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251841#Comment_120251841

NIP is essentially being adhered to.

In the absence of a working Assembly.

Genuine question then for those confident of Ireland's position in the EU, what's the end game if it is not acceptable to the DUP?

The region can't continue without a Government.

Direct control from London? Joint control from Dublin and London? Or checks between Ireland and the EU?

Which of these choices poises the less risk to the peace process?

Nody · 17-02-2023 11:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251894#Comment_120251894

It will be run from London and I'd guess 6 - 12 months a new election in NI. London will build up the required checks etc. and after they are there hold an election to try to break DUPs block basically because DUP can then claim that they did not build them under their watch. Now if DUP will return while being leaned on or not is the open question obviously, I think they are stupid enough to refuse and then the clown fiesta can continue with London running the show (and running over DUP starting to implement the items they refused simply to show DUP what happens if they are not in power).

As for EU giving in on ECJ...

UK negotiators have reportedly conceded that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will remain the ultimate arbiter of any protocol disputes – though there will be a stronger role for Northern Irish courts.

This would be in line as well with DUP suddenly adding an 8th test to their list stating ECJ can't be involved at all in NI.

ancapailldorcha · 17-02-2023 11:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251804#Comment_120251804

More fact-free Irexiter nonsense.

The DUP have killed the Union between NI and GB. Unionism had no culture and has no reason to exist outside of financial gain. That's now gone. The ERG only have influence over the terribly weak PM, as does everyone else.

None of this is being done for the DUP. Nobody cares one whit for the DUP. It's being done for the people and businesses of NI.

roosterman71 · 17-02-2023 11:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251894#Comment_120251894

Checks between Ireland and the EU won't be the solution. NI will go back to the way it was as per the GFA and prior to Brexit/NIP in cases where no assembly is in place to govern.

Podge_irl · 17-02-2023 11:40am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251894#Comment_120251894

what's the end game if it is not acceptable to the DUP?

Ignore the DUP - they were completely ignored to bring in the NIP in the first place after all.

The region quite clearly can continue without a devolved assembly, even if it is far from ideal. There will be more elections in the near future if this continues however.

pixelburp · 17-02-2023 11:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251894#Comment_120251894

The DUP are an irrelevancy, ultimately.

They continue to stomp their feet, erode their vote, and have achieved precisely enough except avoid having SF as the largest power (though it's debatable that has always been the main point).

But when rubber meets the road, every single time, they get left behind in the dust with nothing to show except broken promises. I won't dig out the Carson quote again about trusting Tories, but as @Podge_irl points out NI can be governed without an Assembly - while the chief political losers in all this are the greying dinosaurs refusing to engage.

Direct governance can't be endured forever, but equally the DUP can't remain the only ones refusing to join the party either. I won't presume they have the nous to understand this, but I'm sure given a few more election cycles and a few more of their demographics shifting to the UUP or Alliance, they'll eventually understand.

yagan · 17-02-2023 1:25pm

From the examiner

Labour will offer Rishi Sunak the additional votes he needs to get a Northern Ireland Protocol deal through Parliament, the shadow justice secretary has said.

Steve Reed told reporters: “Labour wants this problem fixed, so we are prepared to give Rishi Sunak the additional votes he needs to get this through Parliament and it’s important that the Prime Minister works with the Labour Party rather than listen to the extremists in his own ranks who do not want to resolve this problem that has caused a division inside our United Kingdom.”

My one wild card offering is that with Labour now confident of winning the next election they'll support Sunak if he throws in a back door GB alignment with the EU via NI. It gives Brexit fence sitters the excuse that it's the only way to preserve the previous union after the disastrous mess made by Bojo and co, and of course the Tory Brexit die hards can't complain because they campaigned for Bojo specifically to oust the DUP veto.

UK exporters who are finally being listened to will be happy, and the EU will be happy as GB will simply shadow the customs arrangement for NI.

Perpetual Brexiters will of course continue to Brexit, but for most others the main focus will of course be on royal shennanigans.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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