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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like someone has been busy buying up a shipping fleet these last few months.

    So now we have things like Diesel and jet fuel going to cost more without shipping.

    15 times more ships needed to transport but 20% less ships are available

    And the cost to ship has gone up 400% in a week now.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭BoxcarWilliam99


    Post edited by BoxcarWilliam99 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    EU to impose 10 billion Euros worth of sanctions on European export companies.I wonder how many jobs will be lost by that.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,350 ✭✭✭Deub


    You should really read better the articles you post.

    it is not “to impose” because they are debating (it is in the title). You could also have said it was exports from/to Russia as it looked like you were talking about exports going everywhere.

    On the job loss, you can wonder but the EU is not as stupid as you make it to be. Do you wonder if job loss is part of the reason they are debating?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    German companies importing more and more goods from China now.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Japan's global trade deficit getting wider as well.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Inflation down a full 1% MoM in January, The increase in interest rates and the ridiculously high prices hit the celling in Nov last year and this is the 2nd drop in a row MoM. The party looks to be over with regards to the gouging - people cant afford it.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/harmonised-inflation-rate-mom



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    And that's why they want their VAT rate here maintained. Feel sorry for the genuine businesses in hospitality, but a huge number of gougers in the industry pleading the poor mouth will not wash anymore. Anyone feel a shop local, buy Irish, support your own campaign coming on..?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I think Lane should have waited for the latest CPIs, Inflation and harmonized inflation rates as he is way off the mark

    Inflation rate decreased by .8% MoM


    Harmonized Inflation rate decreased by 1% MoM

    CPI decreased for the 3rd month in a row




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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well he must not see inflation dropping much at all for the rest of the year as January alone has eaten up the guts of his predicted drop. This with at least 2 more interest rate hikes and if inflation does not drop further we could see a hell of a lot more hikes throughout the year



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    All Central banks left it too late but the ECB waited an extra 6 months to raise interest rates and they started from -1.5% where all the others were about 0%. Plenty of people on here were saying the same thing months and months ago and here we are.

    These rate rises take a fair while to kick in and at the moment the only thing they seem to be able to do is raise interest rates.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Brickster I have shown you MoM inflation is down by 1% the rate hikes are hitting in already and we will have at least another 2 by the summer. I can see a recession starting at some point between Q3 2003 and Q2 2024. Hopefully they will learn from the FEDs mistake they only went up .25% last time and PPI is increasing again. They need to stick to the .5% for the next couple of increments



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That is great Ireland's inflation is coming down. I understand what you are saying, but i am talking about the global economy and mainly Europe as a whole.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well the way it is if Ireland did not have the Multinationals we would of been in a recession for most of last year. The money coming in from these MNCs is so great it actually dragged the EU as a whole out of a recession and into growth. Now what has been happening over the last 18 months or so ?? There has been a ramping up of tech layoffs this will feed into this country as we are too open and exposed to the global head winds and we will see no where near 20Billion in corpo tax in 2023. So Ireland although everything looks hunky dory as the gurus of spin keep looking and touting our GDP figures but if our tech multinationals continue to see contraction we could be in real bother come 2024/2025



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 601 ✭✭✭Fine Day


    We be a third world country ony for the MN companies. The amount of employment both direct & knock on is huge. We be fecked if they reduce investment here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,043 ✭✭✭893bet


    Tech layoffs means nothing. Most of these tech companies produce nothing. Have no product.


    Pharma (and med device) is where the big money is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Your having a laugh the top 3 payers of corpo tax to Ireland are Apple, Microsoft and Google :) also in the top 10 was Facebook (or parent co and Intel) so over half the top 10 are tech and all 5 have seen job cuts globally.

    The top 10 pay well over half of all corpo tax.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Google produces content and it has a large part of online advertising market, most websites,blogs, online services rely on google to sell ads ,1000s of people

    make their living by making, streaming videos on youtube.com ,theres also youtube tv which is an online tv full scale tv network, with dozens of tv channels

    You may as well say rte and and bbc should close down, as they produce nothing every day . theres millions of hours of tv ,video watched by viewers on youtube. its decades since companys were purely judged on the physical goods they make ,most people do not work on farms or make goods in a factory.we are in the post industrial age ,where most media and services are delivered and advertised on the web.transport, food delivery , media . most people do not work in factorys or on farms.

    yes alot of companys are letting workers go, as they hired 1000s during the pandemic to provide services to people working from home.

    Facebook spent billions on ar/vr software which is a complete flop, people use zoom or other apps to hold online business meetings.

    no one wants to put on vr headset just to hold a routine business meeting.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,881 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So 9 months on...

    Has the world or Ireland entered a recession?

    With an energy crisis, a cost of living crisis and a war in Europe.... 9 months later?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 601 ✭✭✭Fine Day


    From what I see all seems fine out there at the moment. Plenty of employment. I was out last sat night for a meal (first time since Christmas) and the place was rocking. However I did feel prices were still climbing. Glass of wine and a pint of bear was €15.50. this was a large town 1 hour from Dublin. It all could change quickly I suppose. There is always a boom before a burst i suppose. We all remember that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 137 ✭✭TagoMago


    Meta and Twitter produce FA but the other companies (Intercom, Zendesk, Salesforce) do create software products that are very widely used. They're mostly B2B so wouldn't be too recognisable to the average punter.

    If there are more lay offs with these type of companies (rather than Elon swinging the axe or Zuckerburg making up for his deluded vanity projects) that would be a pretty big concern for the Irish economy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    There is always a mini boom for pubs and restaurants around the weekends of Valentine's day it could be the weekend before or/and after it. Put it this way will you be back out next weekend paying 15:50 for a pint and a glass of wine?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 601 ✭✭✭Fine Day


    We do not go out too often, cost would not be the only reason, young family and that also makes it difficult to get out. If we went out every Saturday night. Say we had 5 drinks each that be €80 odd euro. We live in the country so a taxi both ways would be another 40 euro and a another 40 at least for a babysitter. €160 for a few hours out. It's alot when you add it up over a month or year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    You got laugh honestly, i bet they believe it as well. I don't see the obsession for all these central bankers on getting inflation to 2%, what is wrong with 3 or 4% inflation it is not the end of the world is it ?


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,677 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    You said the same for the entirety of December. There's always something on, six nations, Easter, Bank Holidays, GAA etc etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,107 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Around 2% is considered optimal (depending on the economic situation)

    Closer to 0% is stagnation and not good, above 2% (depending on situation) is generally not desirable either (especially for e.g. modern European economies)



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,724 ✭✭✭brickster69


    For years inflation was at 0% and they printed trillions to get it to 2% and now some countries are 20%+. It's obvious whatever they are trying to do is not working.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,776 ✭✭✭Allinall


    We'd be poor if we weren't rich.

    Minister for the obvious there.



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