Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Options
1280281283285286315

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,162 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    The thing is that Krapzinc has lost this war. It just a matter of how it will end. His conventional forces have failed miserably and he can't really use nukes or if he did he would not gain due to the response that would surely come. So if he was wise he would be looking for an off ramp but he won't and will stick at it without any real gain until he is deposed or dies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Run Forest Run Propaganda relies on these types of ill-informed people.


    Your post explained in one simple sentence.

    But as we all know Russia is loosing and loosing badly, meanwhile ukraine are getting stronger and more prepared for the counter offensive against the poorly trained and equipped Russian conscripts thousands of dead Russians every single month and nothing to show for it,

    World War 2 losses in 11 months and getting worse , even the Wagner forces are in dire straights after the Russian military cut them off recently ....

    Their running out of excuses the last hope is Belarus , imagine that



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    I do wonder how long the west will be able to sustain Ukraine’s use of the ammunition they are given.

    Seems a few alarm bells that production isn’t able to keep up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭Field east


    In commercial business there is a phrase that’s used now and again when certain situations arise ie ‘that’s commercially sensitive information’ and we are not putting it out there in case it’s to our competitors advantage. I assume that the same strategy applies when it comes to war. Also each side tries to put ‘its best foot forward’ which is the case here to gain any advantage going eg false flags, false figures, misinformation , half truths, etc, etc, etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Not so sure, announcing publicly that something isn’t sustainable doesn’t really have any tangible benefit.

    the Ukrainians are firing around 6k rounds of ammunition a day, the Russians fire more but they’ve got the economy on a war footing whereas the west hasn’t.



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    One wonders what this much vaunted Russian Spring Offensive will entail - and what happens if Russia doesn't achieve its goals? Whatever those goals might be as well: presumably grasping a few more KMs, or a village here and there can't be considered a "win", and might further erode morale and momentum among the rank & file.



  • Registered Users Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    One also wonders what will happen if Ukraine don't achieve their goals?

    We were told by the Ukrainians themselves only a few short months ago, that they believed they would land the decisive blows to Russia and end this war roughly around the early spring of this year. Well early spring is fast approaching, and they do not look like they're anywhere close to landing a knockout blow - far from it. So we're going to find out very soon if they were talking out of their collective proverbial. And of course just how much of this talk was centered around concrete assurances to their western backers? Or was it purely more useless propaganda designed for the ears of all the gullible citizens in this part of the world who are enthusiastically cheering on this ugly sh!tshow?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Were we told that? Have you a source?

    If early spring hasn't actually happened yet, how could you expect them to have landed a knockout blow already???

    Your post doesn't make any sense and is highly dubious.

    There are also citizens in this part of the world gullible enough to fall for any Russian propaganda cues, and repeat them on social media, with the intention of undermining Western support for Ukraine. Even some of our MEPs.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Source on that Ukraine claim please; I certainly don't remember any kind of bullishness, short of hype around that lightning counter-attack Ukraine pulled a few months back. In any case, if it were true it would hardly be the first moment of over-enthusiasm from a country's military command.

    Though the fact you dovetail into sarcasm and superiority makes me think you're disingenuous - what do you suppose "winning" the war actually entails here for Ukraine? Marching into Moscow? Or even restoring every lost KM inch by inch? Hardly: the goal would more likely be making the invasion beyond Sunk Cost for Russia, and not worth pursuing anymore. The goal is to tell Russia GTFO, and Putin finally doing so.

    Now, how realistic that is with Putin in control is debatable - but for Ukraine the key priority has been surviving first, pushing back and utilising their resources where they can. Easy to forget the disparity here in sheer numbers, given how unable Russia has been in making that count. Though stands to reason for a country determined to invoke WW2 that they are taking the meat-grinder approach again.

    You're right, it's an ugly shítshow, and one country has more power than the other to make it stop today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    Yep, it was all over the news at the back end of last year. All sorts of "experts" saying they are very close to victory.

    And of course, so many naive people believed them.

    Here's one such interview I remember reading. I wouldn't be surprised if people tried to wipe this talk from their collective memories...

    Btw, where did I say spring had already happened? I very clearly stated that they do not look close to any sort of decisive victory in this war, and spring is fast approaching. It's looking like a completely ridiculous prediction.

    You would wonder what the political ramifications could be for the continued western support of this war? Are the Ukrainian's ego writing cheques, their body can't cash?



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I think the spring/summer offensive by Ukraine (with the new weapons they got with for example 150km HIMAR missiles, the tanks, Archer etc.) is the question mark and answer to the question. My guess as it currently stands comes down to how that offensive goes as well. Here's the general scenario as I see it. I think Ukraine will launch an attack down Zaporizhia to lock out Zaporizhia and Kherson to bring both back under Ukraine control because Kherson will stand and fall based on Zaporizhia. I expect Russia will pull back into Crimea with the forces in the region. Russia took those to get the land route to Crimea and while it hurts I don't think it's the end of the day for Russia. However...

    If Ukraine continue into Crimea (which has serious supply line issues before the war and worse now) and take it things will get really intresting in terms of how Russia acts. Losing Crimea would be a big face loss for Putin compared to Kherson etc. as well as the obvious issues with the Black Sea fleet etc. I think they would probably try to re-take it but honestly that would become an amphibious assault and oh boy that would be a big fiasco most likely. This is the most likely point for a nuclear assault because Putin would be embaressed to the point nothing else is likely to be close in the whole war short of total defeat. Hence Putin "I r manliest" will need to do something drastic to remain in power. I could see for example nuking Crimea to stop Ukraine from being able to use it ("If we can't have it you can't have it") and I find Crimea more likely than Kiev (less civilian casualties, military target etc. and it stops it from being used to block Russia's navy). However I think in general if Russia lose Crimea Putin will be out one way or another in 6 months. From that point forward it's impossible to say because it becomes very depdenent on who's the new boss etc. and what happens in Russia in general (Putin's fall will trigger a lot of infighting between various groups I'd guess).

    From Russia's perspective I think they will go for trying to hold on to Crimea, Dontesk and Luhansk and try to bunker down with multiple lines of defence in depth. The areas they are taking now etc. is wiggle rooms in negotiations to "give back" to Ukraine while they hold on to those territories as Russian in case things goes wrong. Of course the "peace" would not last in reality and is simply to give Russia time to re-build before they go for the rest of Ukraine (again). Russia needs the war to stop before they need to do a full mobilisation of soldiers (as this would be political suicide); so far they are only culling "problem groups" by using regoinal miniority groups and killing of the likely suspects to join a revolt against Moscow (i.e. men in the bracket 18 - 46) as well as cripple the local economy there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,924 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The Ukrainians aren't going to say "we are going to lose this war by Spring". They set optimistic goals to keep morale up, everyone knows this. It's not a business contract, there are no "concrete assurances", it could drag on for years.

    People are supporting Ukraine's defense, don't conflate that with support for the war. The is a war of choice, 100% instigated by Putin, who can end it at any time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,924 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    You said "Well early spring is fast approaching, and they do not look like they're anywhere close to landing a knockout blow." A completely ridiculous prediction? No, just a deliberate confusion of timelines by you.

    Spring hasn't happened yet, lasts for months but yet you are already drawing conclusions about the lack of knockout blows...

    You've gone from:

    end this war roughly around the early spring of this year.

    To what your cited article says:

    "my feeling is that by the end of the spring, this war will be over."

    You can't keep your story straight because it is based on Russian lies.

    There's a con job on the gullible being perpetrated and attempted here alright.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I still expect Crimea to remain in Russian hands after all this. It's just a small feeling, completely one of personal theorising that if Ukraine can shove the Russians back enough to restore borders to those at the start of 2022? Biden et al would quietly insinuate that the weapons might dry up if Ukraine continued to push into Crimea. That that would be the compromise in all this, that Russia could walk away with a bloody nose but keep its "original" prize.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,667 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    He said this could be helped by what is known as a "black swan" event - something unpredictable - happening in Russia, such as the sudden collapse of the Putin regime.

    "I think Russia can face a black swan in their country, inside Russia and it can contribute to the success of us with Crimea," the minister said, speaking in fluent English.


    As to when the war will end, Mr Havrylov said as a military it was important to be prepared for a long fight if Russia is able to reinforce.

    "Of course, in this case, the war will take some time. But my feeling is that by the end of the spring, this war will be over."

    Unsurprisingly, you are strongly misrepresenting the official's comments. To give you a modicum of credit, the headline is similarly misrepresentative. There was far more equivocation in his comments then a flat prediction that they were close to victory.

    There will be no "political ramifications" because continued support of Ukraine remains highly popular.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I'd tend to agree; and I think the loss (or not) of Crimea is going to be a very deciding factor in the war overall as well as what will happen in Moscow in general at leadership level. Having said that I can as well see Ukraine wanting to push into Crimea to rub it into the noses of Russia for the loss of Bakhmut (if it has fallen by then) or simply use it for negotitation to get other areas back (i.e. we COULD destroy Crimea as we've been shooting it up but if you give us back Luhansk and Donetsk we will leave you Crimea). It would as well enable Russia to "evacuate" the "Russians" in those areas to backfill their own regions (as they have already done).



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    If Crimea remains 'Russian' that has to come with some caveats... demilitarised except for the naval base or even no naval base. It shouldn't be usable as a launchpad for attacks on Ukraine, interfering with their shipping or for claiming previously Ukrainian marine resources.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    Others were predicting early spring.

    This guy was predicting the end of spring - you're being pedantic now for obvious reasons.

    And he was also saying they could be back in Crimea by December... which was obviously horsesh!t. This was Ukraine's deputy defence minister, so not exactly some nobody either.

    Early spring, end of spring... they're nowhere near ending this war anytime soon. Even the end of spring is farcical nonsense. But of course, I'm not surprised one bit that many gullible people in the west swallow it hook line and sinker! There is a literal tsunami of propaganda that has been unleashed on a largely unsuspecting public in the west.

    More people are starting to wake up to this reality, but it's a slow process and many people are still being hoodwinked by it unfortunately. We've never seen propaganda used to this extent on this scale before...



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    You have been corrected on timelines. The article you cited contradicted your timelines and still you double down on your falsehood. Nothing pedantic about it. A lot can happen militarily in three months of Spring and the last few months there has been a lull due to the winter.

    A literal tsunami? This is hyperbole and nonsense. You are throwing out words and phrases here without comprehension.

    Strange how you are concerned about Ukrainian propaganda yet not a word about the level of propaganda Russia has been deploying towards the West for the last 10 years, funding groups in Europe.

    And by strange, I mean blatantly and obviously revealing your pro-Russian position.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The liberation or capture of lughansk was the last military goal for the Russians which was going to be completed by March 31 of this year, we're about 6 weeks short of that date and they haven't gotten anywhere remotely close to pushing the Ukrainans out ,it's now been claimed that the Russians have lost north of 170-200,000 men ,this month alone we are looking at 20,000 + dead Russians and yet their other goal of bakhmut by all costs has been a total failure for them, thousands of dead for a few meters of fields while they besieged the city for 6 months straight meanwhile the Ukrainans didn't even bring in reserves .



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,924 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    The lack or grasp of reality in this post is staggering. One of Zelensky's many responsibilities as a leader during war-time is to keep morale up. Part of that is to set optimistic goals. Contrary to analyst predictions the Ukrainians survived more than a few weeks during the initial blitzed invasion, not only that but they pushed Russia back last year (which is extraordinary in itself considering the massive imbalance in militaries)

    Now Ukraine have set themselves more lofty ambitions and goals in the war. Likewise, a majority of people who support Ukraine's defense, have high hopes for Ukraine to push back Russia. Whether they succeed in these goals is up to a thousand factors inside and outside their control.

    You're taking it like it's a literal "schedule", and shrieking "scam" if it isn't met. It's like claiming everyone was "hoodwinked" in a football game because the manager was optimistic about being a win.

    Really stupid stuff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,108 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Channel 4 news had a piece on this topic today where they said that America is now producing more ammunition than at any time since the Korean war.

    The difference isn't that the Russians are on a war footing - They're also firing more than they can produce. They just have more stockpiles and are resorting to using more and more ancient artillery, not to mention tapping up their few allies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    The "Russian spring offensive" has been ongoing for 3 weeks at this stage (and is not going well- as evidenced by the fact that many are unaware it if happening at all). Various commentators refer to it:




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,422 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭amandstu


    I wonder how that journey (10 hours in a train it seems) was made relatively secure?

    Also what was said in the message to Moscow immediately prior to departure?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's been claimed on the other thread,he was only allowed to go after getting permission and security from putin,

    I get the feeling it was more were going to Kiev and if anyone or anything threatens the President while he's there or traveling to or from Ukraine there will be dire consequences,

    One thing for sure there was plenty of firepower there to deter any foreign aggression,

    What's Putins reaction going to be ,I'm pretty sure he's utterly livid , remember he had planned a victory parade through Kiev after 3 days



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,667 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    No it wasn't.

    It was suggested they probably got security guarantees from Russia, which they probably did because Russia and the US have had an open, if strained, dialogue for decades. Also it would be an eminently sensible thing from both sides to do as it benefits neither for Biden to end up as collateral damage.

    The undeniably dire consequences of MAD aside, an approach from the US of outright threats and aggression would completely fly in the face of everything they have been doing for the past year (and indeed 2 decades prior to that).

    You mistake prudence and dialogue for weakness. The US could simply threaten Russia but that is not how their foreign policy works (and this has, for the most part, been sensible).

    The US doesn't need to go around threatening foreign powers because they are actually strong, unlike the sabre rattling from Russia.

    Post edited by Podge_irl on


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,924 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Putins speech could be easily mistaken for hitler, now that he has also pulled out of the nukes treaty he has really pushed the world closer to a disaster.

    The sooner they lose bitterly in Ukraine the better.



Advertisement