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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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    #14942
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 26,072 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252557#Comment_120252557

    The Tories have gone so batsht Tea Party Republican that Sunak needing Labours help will be a disaster for him.

    Imagine the foaming from the back benches if he signs a deal with the EU and one backed by Labour.



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    #14943
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,311 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252557#Comment_120252557

    I think their reason is much simpler than that; Labour "know" that they will be in power come 2024; the more of the sticky Brexit issues that they can push Tories to do for them and be able to blame Tories for if it does not work the better.



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    #14944
    yagan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭yagan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252571#Comment_120252571

    I can't see the Tories winning the next election, so his tenure very much is about damage limitation and trying to reduce the margin of inevitable defeat. His duty as prime minister now is to preserve the Tory party for the election after next.



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    #14945
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,444 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Sunak has Baker and Heaton Harris on board. That nullifies the ERG largely. It'll take the DUP another two years to accept that the deal is working. That is after the 2024 GE.



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    #14946
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,739 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    All that fanfare about Sunak being Britain's first BAME prime minister along with being the first practicing Hindu and this is his legacy, a giant nothing.

    It's 2017 all over again. We've a weak PM, a recalcitrant parliamentary party and the ERG and the DUP acting the maggot. We even have an insipid deadline for the torching of thousands of EU laws on the UK's statues. This time there are no marching Europhiles and no EU to beg extensions from. The harm will be even more self-inflicted and pointless now than it was in 2019.

    I think this is a good step towards Starmer appearing like a sensible PM in waiting. He gets to look like he's acting in the national interest, sideline the DUP and the ERG and avoid a future mess all in one stroke.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #14947
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,635 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Starmer has already said that if there is a deal to be done then the Labour party will support it. The ERG and DUP have no power.



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    #14948
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,444 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    That's a win/win for Labour. The other parties are coming out happy from the talks. That definitely means the DUP will be saying No.



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    #14949
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 26,072 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252626#Comment_120252626

    Well for the DUP to reach 2025 it will take another 102 years of catching up.



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    #14950
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252766#Comment_120252766

    I wouldn't be so sure. NI commentators are saying Donaldson is facing a key strategic gamble whichever he goes on this : saying 'no' could practically be as risky as agreeing to it.



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    #14951
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,444 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It seems Jeffrey would say yes, but Sammy is always no.



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    #14952
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,635 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252935#Comment_120252935

    But I think the sands have shifted. The UK as a whole is no longer so invested in the whole EU Brexit fight. Most, according to the polls at least, are dissatisfied with Brexit and even the likes of Widdecome are accepting that Brexit is failing but only so far as the implementation has failed rather than the idea itself.

    If they are even interested in NI, most can see the problem Brexit has caused and that both sides need to accept some compromise. So the DUP carrying on with the previous attitude of No won't carry the same weight. Added to this, Brexit deal is already passed, so it is hard so the ERG and others to now say that any deal which improves on that is terrible, after all, they voted for.



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    #14953
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,739 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The underlying truth of all of this is that the DUP are the party equivalent of people voting for Brexit for free trade, ie they're a sop so people like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Mark Fancois can sound less stupid. Voting down May's deal and sabre-rattling over the protocol were never about NI, they were about any sort of compromise and to maintain the forever war with the EU. The DUP were just too stupid to see it.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #14954
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,444 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Correct horse, I think they gave it all of 15 mins , as I remember, when they decided to support Brexit.



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    #14955
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 26,072 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254050#Comment_120254050

    If the middle class home counties, royal arrse sucking, bulldog and spitfire crowd are voting for something you can be sure the DUP will fall in line in a sad attempt to feel British.

    They are about as much a reflection of British culture as those American Hibernian associations are to us.



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    #14956
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The ERG are apparently not happy with the Protocol progress:


    image.png




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    #14957
    amacca
    Registered Users Posts: 6,906 ✭✭✭amacca


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120255333#Comment_120255333

    Quelle surprise!



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    #14958
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 26,072 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "Accused of sending mixed messages"

    That's probably because like 90% of MPs he doesn't have a single clue about Northern Ireland and probably couldn't find it on a map.



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    #14959
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,739 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    In all seriousness, this looks like a fatal blow to the Tories. Either Sunak caves to the ERG and bleeds more authority or, more likely, he gets the new deal on NI through by using Labour, deepening the schism in his party. Were there a credible challenge to his leadership in the wings, he'd be done. He's going to hang on simply by virtue of there being nobody else.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #14960
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120255692#Comment_120255692

    I was reading Sunak is freaked by the prospect of the UK being politically isolated around the time of the 25th anniversary of the GFA. Biden visits Ireland and the EU, but completely snubs the UK.



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    #14961
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,594 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    In regards to a possible Johnson intervention, it would be a good way for him to get back at Sunak and perhaps rewrite the history of him selling out the DUP; on the other hand, him savaging any agreement might upset Washington. He might care about that if he's plotting a return to Westminster one day.



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    #14962
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,739 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Not sure how reliable this is:

    https://twitter.com/t0nyyates/status/1626655164919648257

    I can actually see the DUP falling for it. They've no awareness whatsoever that they've done more for a UI since 2016 than Sinn Féin have done in a century.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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    #14963
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120256868#Comment_120256868

    The EU would view him as a bad actor and someone whose word was totally meaningless. He would be the worst possible person for the UK to send forward for talks on the Protocol or future UK-EU relations.



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    #14964
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users Posts: 36,079 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    So this Green Lane with no checks means I could send things to N.I address, then collect and drive south



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    #14965
    timetogo1
    Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258178#Comment_120258178

    Where did you see the green lane has no checks?



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    #14966
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258178#Comment_120258178

    I believe the red and green lanes are intended for commercial traffic only i.e. HGVs, trucks and vans.



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    #14967
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 26,072 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258178#Comment_120258178

    No but what would be the point anyway.



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    #14968
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,444 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The ERG are no longer large enough to cause problems. If 30/40 decide to abstain or vote against the Govn't the agreement still goes through on Tory votes alone.



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    #14969
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,698 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258178#Comment_120258178

    We won't know until the deal is out in public, but there will be reduced checks as far as I understand because the UK has finally started giving real time data access to the EU. This means less checks are needed as a result and the NIP can be looked at again with this new process in place. But data on what is being sent will still need to be collected I believe.


    Nothing really seems to have changed other than the UK doing what they were supposed to and it leading to better results. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot for nothing other than stubbornness.



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    #14970
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,081 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258679#Comment_120258679

    Paid up members of the ERG now total 12, apparently.

    Never in the field of human history, can blame be placed by so many, on so few.



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    #14971
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,081 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120255333#Comment_120255333

    Lets hope it goes bad and results in an election.

    Starmer's Labour majority would sign an even better deal for all anyway.

    Taking out the Tories and the DUP in one seismic election would be glorious and definitely an all night count vigil for which I would buy some excellent cigars as the axes fall.



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