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New doubt cast on Ireland's hottest temperature
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19-07-2022 4:20pm#1
https://www.thejournal.ie/research-kilkenny-castle-1887-hottest-temperature-record-5820271-Jul2022/
The below is interesting as the assumption from some on here was that the 33.3 was totally representative of conditions in Ireland and the UK at the time.
"The reanalysis also compared the temperature recorded in Kilkenny to six other weather stations, including in Birr, Phoenix Park, Roches Point, and Sheffield in the UK.
These stations have nearly complete records through to today, many of which have been digitised, according to the study.
The maximum surface temperatures of the selected weather stations for June 1887. The red point marker shows the maximum surface temperature recorded at Kilkenny on 26 June 1887.
“We can look at the modern day differences between those and when we look at the date in 1887, the Kilkenny Castle difference is either entirely outside the distribution of expected daily occurrences or right in the extreme of that distribution,” Thorne said.
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Here's a basic map showing the maximum temps at various available stations on 26 June 1887, the day of the Kilkenny Castle record. Given the variation we can see on a typical very warm to hot day in Ireland, it looks fine to me 🤷♂️ second highest out of these was 31.7C at Blackrock, Cork.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Firstly, yesterday's 33.1 has been rejected and the earlier 33.0 has been confirmed.
It's in Thorne's interest to cast doubt on the KK value as it will help keep him well-funded into the future. I find it ironic that he says this:
“It would have been mercury and glass thermometers, and it probably would have been a maximum and minimum thermometer. [The weather station] is something that would look like a meteorological shelter that we see today, but it would have been probably smaller because the large shelters were an innovation that came around in the First and Second World Wars,”.
“It would have been smaller and the smaller size of that would have left it more prone to solar heating effects during the day, and then coupled to that would have been [questions about whether] it well sited, was it near a wall of the castle that might heat during the day and expel heat.
I wonder if he thinks the same about the 48-degree reading in Sicily last year, which was recorded using an AWS in a tiny radiation shield sitting a few cm above a thick metal arm in a small, dark metal fence enclosure near a stone wall in a bare field near a road. I don't expect he does. Or about the Shannon carkpark. Or the building beside the PP enclosure.
The Phoenix Park site has no doubt changed over time, both naturally (I assume the trees have grown) and artificially (that buildin a few steps away). Modern instrumentation does not distinguish between air that has been heated naturally or artificially, it will accurately measure the temperature just the same. Just as a mercury one will do. Using Thorne's rationale, we should reject many more old measurements because they were done before the standardisation of practices.
Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on7 -
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That is a very good question @fryup - the above image quoted from @StratoQ's Kilkennyweather.com site explains the following:
I have found a copy of the Report of the Meteorological Council 1890 which mentions the inspection that took place at Kilkenny Castle in August 1889 (Two years after the record breaking temperature was recorded). The report states that the instruments were all in good order. The maximum thermometer was checked against a known good standard thermometer and the correction to be applied was found to be 0.0° (i.e. the thermometer required no correction and was reporting the true value).
So, even two years after the record was taken, the same thermometer was checking out as being "spot on" and recording accurately.
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Yes - it does appear that they were perhaps a bit selective with the stations they chose.
It doesn't just appear so, they were without much doubt very selective in what they chose. Adding Sheffield in there was bizarre to say the least. I went through the flies they left on git hub, they included Galways 30.0c in their comparisons there but it never appeared in the chart on the final report - the one where they put a little red box to imply Kilkenny was way out of kilter.
![original[1].png](https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/HIE7ECD3DIM1/original-5b1-5d.png)
The poor quality of this even shows Kilkenny incorrectly labeled on the plot chart, how can Kilkenny show a max of 29.2c for June 26th 1887 and also show 33.3c for June 26th 1887 marked by a red box? A very basic error to make on a paper entitled Reassessing Ireland’s Hottest Temperature Record, which is currently being peer reviewed and was resubmitted yesterday morning for what he hopes is the final revision.
Sryanbruen above spent a couple of hours pulling data from Met.ie and recreated a chart that is ten fold more professional than what this paper purports to show.
However, perhaps it's because these stations have the longest and most reliable set of records? I'm not sure.
If these stations have a most reliable set of records, why are they questioning the 33.3c, ignoring the fact that the thermometer used to record 33.3c was checked and found to be working! Are they investigating Markree's -19.1c recorded just six years earlier too? Or is it's validity overlooked just because it's a cold record?
"These stations have nearly complete records through to today, many of which have been digitised, according to the study."
Which is a good thing if the digitisation process is free from alterations such as homogenisation - i.e. just the raw data please.
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EDIT: Thanks Danno. Found those definitions in the background there too. Though on this appendix it says Kilkenny provided C&F, which is pressure readings and that it was a climatological station already? So Scott didn't think there was a need (or ability) to provide 9am/9pm readings?
From my limited grasp of lat/long - these values are junk without the seconds ('') right? 52° 39' & 7° 14' covers quite a lot of ground of the castle. Would we assume the seconds were rounded up or down to the nearest minute on a 0-29 and 30-59 bases or something?
Alternatively if someone has the phone number for H.Carlton that would be great 😋
In reality I assume someone like StratoQ has tried his darndest to locate the station within the castle grounds already and had no luck.
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Stations of the second order were as follows, taken directly from the Met Office monthly weather report 1910.
As the Met Office archive is a bit of a pain in the arse to navigate, I have made a Drive of all the reports a while ago here for anyone interested.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Report of the Meteorological Council 1884/1886. Some clues.
1886:
Seems generally well exposed if not close to trees from one angle. Not too much issue with that if PP is all good to Mr.Thorne?
This is the first mention in 1884 below. Sorry I got the years mixed up as the eBook had two reports in one and I didn't cop. To note Mr. Scott said he hoped Kilkenny would become a 2nd order...rather far from his remarks in 1890.
Further EDITS:
1896 (?), our Mr. Carlton is very carefully in Kilkenny measuring the weather.
1897; site was moved to a considerably better location compared to the previous. But the 1887 location was still considered well exposed bar one side no I don't think it's enough to be rubbishing the reading.
Post edited by John.Icy on4 -
Excellent work - so it seems Kilkenny didn't have the extra instrumentation to make it a Second Order station which from what I can make out is the wet bulb and wind speed and direction along with a more detailed report on cloud. So, climatological station is a step between second and third order using these older definitions.
At this south Laois climatological station, I observe once daily and note the following:
- Current air temperature at 9am UTC (10am during Summer time)
- Current wetbulb at 9am
- Maximum air over previous 24hrs
- Minimum air over previous 24hrs
- Rainfall amount from previous 24hrs
- Current 5cm soil temperature
- Current 10cm soil temperature
- Current 20cm soil temperature
- Grass minimum over previous 24hrs (basically an air min thermometer on pegs a half inch above grass tips)
- Current state of ground - i.e. dry, wet, damp, glaze, frozen, snow, etc...
- Snow depths
- Current cloud cover in Octas 1/8.......8/8
So, quite a bit to observe each day and alot more now than they did there in 1887! In addition I supply the dominant wind direction of the previous 24hrs and note any gales - but stress that this data on wind is from the Davis which is at standard 10m. I don't really know if they use that data at all though! :D
Some other climate stations observe sunshine and deeper soil temperatures also.
Contacted StratoQ earlier who thinks the station was located near where the current playground is. Back then it was a bowling lawn:
Using StratoQ's location would put it in the yellow circle, give or take. You mentioned above a report with concerns about a tree to the north and this would probably place it closer to the red circle.
That puts it ~142m away from the Castle itself and over 100m away from the southern wall of the castle. So, as you say - exposure wasn't really very much an issue at all with the exception of a tree north of there.
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Had a bit more time and checked all other reports between the station beginning plus prior to moving it in 1897 and nothing else giving there. Station was either all good (dodgy rain gauge for a bit) or else the site was not visited.
Red dot could be a good shot Danno, it fits the long/lat. Below is a guide to those coordinates of interest as per these reports. It does extend a bit beyond the top of the box but for obvious reasons this wouldn't be where the site is (outside the castle grounds). Now this would be assuming the reporting was very exact but see no reason why it wouldn't.
Since we are only dealing with a ~10 year period not much hope of finding anything in the back of an image! 😁
'Moved to the lawn' would imply it began much closer to the castle originally and on the concrete surface. So a move to where StratoQ thinks seems very plausible. But if 'on the north' just means to the north of the station from where Scott was standing when he noted the trees rather than compass north maybe?
All in all yes, seems like we have no issue with the instrumentation and also no damning issue with exposure (or at worst, slight issue on one side but considered good nonetheless). Below is a response by Mr. Kilkenny weather himself:
^^ There are PHOTOS of the station??? Would solve all of the above whoever has them?
Last thing on it that's interesting is in the radio interview the mention of the rounding of the fahrenheit reading, so the Kilkenny temp may have been a little lower but even up to ~33.6c at a quick conversion.
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The OSI 6-inch maps show Kilkenny Castle as it was back around that time. The first edition is 1839-40 and the last edition is 1899-1902. No real change in layout between the two.
1839-40
1899-1902
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