A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

It impacts on lending which is more or less the blood flow of any economy with higher rates it impacts on both individuals and companies taking loan outs ergo demand is quelled and prices either drop or companies hit the wall. Prices have come down over the last 2 months and will continue to do so. People cannot afford the price point here now that the cheap credit tap has been turned off

So you are "king" or "tsar" (!)

What should the US/EU do if China starts gettting deep into backfilling the Russian military so it can keep up the faltering efforts to win glory for Putin in Ukraine, max the "kill" levels + carry on blasting cities to rubble?

Do you have anything new and original to say about it?

Probably not (will you tell me this isn't the place for it, purely an "economy" thread floating breezily above politcs/war?).

(edit: whats the point...🤷‍♀️)

What is the difference between China sending arms to Russia and the US sending arms to Taiwan ? "Oh, the US is doing it so it is fine" scream the West while most of the world will think they are causing trouble and interfering in another countries politics. No wonder the majority of the world's population are running to Bric's and discussing using alternative currencies.

Don't those countries have the sovereign right to choose their own policies or must they do as they are told ? China is not party to sanctions and can do as it wants, as can the rest of the world who are not party to western sanctions.

Then back to the global economy, if the West do start a boomerang war with China, this time they should consider not just what China sells to the West but just as importantly what China buys from the West. But most importantly would be to think of what would be the worst things that could affect the guy in the street. If they are too great don't bother, if not crack on and take a chance.

Maybe sanity prevails and people say this is getting a bit out of hand now so maybe we should sit down and have a chat to cool things down. Far too sensible that though isn't it, best double down and sanction China and then why not sanction everyone who does not agree with us for good measure.

So in reality it should say, 90 US companies are banned from selling certain goods. Short term it may affect them but we will see a response no doubt and i bet it only hurts one side not both.

This one should read, if companies buy these materials they will have to pay more which will increase the cost of goods that they produce and therefore make the price higher. Also it will probably drive up the price for these materials on the open market affecting everyone else in the world.

Not unexpected but confirmed now. How many indirect jobs will be lost by companies who supplied them , 20K 30K?

This line from BASF release is brutal:

“BASF’s European customers will continue to be reliably supplied with TDI [a chemical product] from BASF’s global production network with plants in Geismar, **Louisiana**; Yeosu, **South Korea**; and Shanghai, **China**”

The old mask is hanging off now. Lets ignore causality. Lets try to argue black into white and white into black.

Taiwan has attacked nobody and is a minnow in relative terms that doesn't threaten China.

Ukraine also attacked nobody and was no threat to Russia. Ukraine wants to be left alone to "choose its own policies" as you put it.

Russia started a war of choice to conquer/absorb Ukraine or if that can't happen now they will just (try to) destroy it and make a desert. China helping Russia save blushes by supplying weapons now, solely because Putin's mighty wehrmacht all you fellow travellers here were so impressed with a few years ago has badly run out of puff is disgusting + indefensible. I know you won't say it or can't say it, but I'm free to!

The EU in particular whistling past the graveyard with China after it as if all is normal, nothing is happening, nothing to see here etc. would be disgusting as well as deeply stupid and very cowardly. China can choose and supply Putin the weapons he wants, those who it trades with can choose their path as well. What else is there to "talk" about?

Economics, trade, etc. don't occur in a vacuum. The kinds of sanctions you give out about so much + spend 90 % of time wailing + calling everyone "idiots" (or now saying they are actually "insane" - not just stupid) are politics in action and inevitable consequences coming home to roost (in the economic/trade worlds).

Economics is not science, patterns of trade, economic relations between countries are not some kinds of laws of nature.

5 European countries went into a technical recession today with chances of more in the next quarter.

Screenshot:

Ericsson to layoff 8,500 staff globally.

Recession fears falling every day. US q1 gdp gathering steam looking at recent data. Great to see how wrong everyone was.

Well the funny thing is that great q1 data will 100% mean rates have to go higher for longer which will cause a hard landing.

Not looking likely according to this.

The fertilizer industry. Many companies importing and acting as distributors for things like ammonia which is $500 a ton cheaper in the US. Very difficult to compete with gaps like that.

Other energy intensive ones like chemicals, ceramic, glass making and metal smelters have suffered greatly with many firms shut down or greatly reduced production. Not exactly a total and utter collapse but who knows what could happen on the energy price front, impossible for them to plan for really.

Probably many of those massive types of companies wish to relocate but it is not quite as simple as clicking your fingers and you start up a week later somewhere else.