NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

Nice bit of ducking the question again francie. But credit for accepting that the dup were pulled into line by the voters. Maybe the posters who were saying that we were following the dup will take it better from you.

I am still interested what you will say if the eu accept that

• they will not be allowed to impose compulsory adherence to Ecj?
• they will not be allowed to check goods destined to stay in OWC?
• ….and let me add another - they will not be allowed to control our vat or affect our ability to get Uk state aid?

these were all supposed to be non negotiable. I have no evidence we will win these but I am hearing positive noises.

now don’t duck the questions

Well there we go. Francie is riding two horses. He can’t lose. On a positive it’s good to hear he is happy if unionists get all they need. Would be great if the eu negotiators take the same view.

I take it you will also be happy and unsurprised if some wording in the protocol is changed and/or legal additions?

The media reflecting that public opinion in the UK is shifting? They've had enough of the negativity, duplicity and Never Never Never.

Not just me downcow..many many people told you.

Because history shows us, Unionist or Nationalist, whether you identify as Irish or British, it matters not to the Tory's and British when it comes to their own selfish interests.

I know you were taught to hate the British as many were, but I would not say the Tories and British are that selfish. After all, they and the EU and IMF bailed us out here not much more than a decade ago, and each and every year they give N.Ireland many billions of pounds. If I was a N.I. unionist, going from UK government to be governed by Republicans would be like going from the frying pan in to the fire.

Actually the UK was the second biggest net contributor to the EEC/ EU. And you say the UK helping to bail us out here after our Celtic Tiger went bust was "A prime example of the UK doing something which was primarily in their own selfish interests. They did it solely to protect their own banks.". Actually some of their own banks, like Bank of Scotland Ireland.... BOSI incurred losses of £10.9 billion (€15.6bn) after the financial crash in 2008, which was the “worst loss rate for the group overall” and it withdrew from the Irish market. BOS covered BOSI's losses.

Anyway, as regards N.I., they have and continue to pump many billions of pounds in to it each and every year. They defended the place in WW2. Good job they were not relying on us to keep Hitler from snatching N.Irish jews, gypsies, handicapped etc. So how can you claim they are selfish?

They give disability benefit to one in four adults in West Belfast. What other government in the world gives disability benefit to 1 in 4 adults ffs?

I don’t jump up and down when you refer to my country as a point on the compass so I don’t know why the concern when I miss a tick above a letter. I was trying to use the correct name rather than saying parliament (which I assume is what it means). I honestly didn’t know there was a tick - and even if I did I don’t have the first clue how to type it.

The figure of “300 roads” was always nonsense. Countries with border controls put them on their major primary roads, not every single laneway they have.

The reality is there are 14 places where National Primary Roads cross into or out of NI. 6 of those are accounted for by two such roads that run along and crisscross the border.

So, if we had to put up a hard border, we’d probably have been looking as somewhere between 8 and 14 border crossings depending on whether and how those two national primary roads were rebuilt.

And that is important because it may still happen should the British government ever decide to abandon the NI protocol as “unworkable”.

Okay, so if the U.K. announces tomorrow morning that the NI Protocol is unworkable and they will never implement it, we’ll leave the EU - destroying much of our economy in the process - rather than accept the hard border which would be needed to enforce the EU’s customs union laws, will we?

PS There has never been a hard border on the island of Ireland because the UK initially decided it was unthinkable to have a border between two parts of the Empire and that has continued ever since. They have occasionally seriously considered it since but always held off. That was them saving money, not anything else.

So looks like we are moving to a ‘deal’. Much of what I said will be in it eg vat, state aid, no checks for ni stuff etc. but it has zero chance of being accepted by unionists. Some in the dup are intending to spin it as acceptable but the grassroots unionist community will not accept it. I don’t think the majority of the dup will wear it, but I could be wrong.

we have had the Ira attempt to murder a Psni officer the other night. The police believe that there was movement across the border after the shooting. Not sure if this was planned to remind eu/roi/Uk that they dare not offend republicans.

the chances of stormont coming back are now highly unlikely. I don’t know what the future holds. Alison morris (telegraph) says ira members prepared to be active are approx 100 and she says the uda members prepared to be active are in the 1000s.

I am genuinely unsure where this is going. I lived through a conflict here that had us all in our trenches. I fear that we may all end up back in our trenches. Scratch the surface here and you will find identity runs deep and eg drumcree, if it kicks off, us moderates will be dragged into camps.

sorty that’s a bit of a sad post for a Friday night.

Yes.

Hard borders in most countries have passport controls, customs controls and frequently a physical security fence - usually no worse than you’d see in an industrial estate - as standard.

1 & 3 have never applied here and 2 did but was often circumvented with cross border smuggling being epidemic due to the lack of strict border controls.

The problem with the “trade sanctions will hurt the U.K.” scenario is that enforcing trade sanctions against the U.K. would require a hard border with NI.

Right now, we don’t even have no plan for how we would set such a border up. That means the claim about imposing sanctions lacks credibility - as we can’t back our “or else” up.

Also, many of our non-multinationals exporters are still heavily focused on the U.K. market.

So any form of sanctions would hurt Ireland disproportionately to the rest of the EU. That begs the questions:

1) how weak or severe sanctions would we want? Weak would cause little damage here but equally would do little to dissuade the U.K. Severe might do so but would cause much more damage here.

2) Now imagine Spain asks for sanctions over a dispute about Gibraltar next week, how much damage would we be willing to endure here over a Gibraltar issue? Would we want weak or severe sanctions?

3) Based on your answer to 2), what would the likely response be from other EU countries, let’s say the Dutch, when faced with a demand for sanctions over the NI border?

4) And, remember when answering 3) that, many EU countries already operate hard land or sea borders with non-EU countries as a standard part of their EU membership. Why should they engage in a damaging trade war over something (a land border) they regard as normal?

5) If the UK digs its heals and refuses to budge, pointing to the reality of land borders as outlined in 4), what’s our exit strategy? Are we seriously going to engage in an interminable trade war over the issue, particularly when the majority in NI - who still overwhelmingly back being in the U.K. - are never going to thank us for doing so and could well become more hostile to us as a result?

So basically the UK on their 5th? PM, without many minister, and with an economy in tattters, holds all the cards?