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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 535 ✭✭✭WHL


    if he feels that he has wrung what he can from the EU would Sunak not call a U.K. referendum between the current protocol on offer v no deal? Let the U.K. people decide what kind of Brexit they want. It would have to be U.K. wide as everyone would be affected if the TACA would end. If the people went with the protocol the U.K. could move forward with growth plans with some certainty and if they went with no deal it would truly be the will of the people. It would take a few months to organise but if it settled matters would it not be democratic. It ignores the rejoin the internal market option etc but it might be too early for that anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,617 ✭✭✭rock22


    @WHL wrote "would Sunak not call a U.K. referendum "

    You're joking , right?

    Post edited by rock22 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,827 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    A referendum on pretty much a trade negotiation. That's in essence what it is.

    They will need to be having more and more of them so if they plan to do a proper trade deal with a third country.

    What ever deal is reached or signed of with the EU wrt NI, it's going to complicate other future trade deals the UK plan.

    Goods move freely from the EU->NI->GB with zero checks. Any 3rd party deal the UK plan to do with another country is going to want checks from NI to GB so the north issue even if settled between the UK and EU is gonna be back front and stage again. Total clusterfuck!



  • Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    Goods move freely from the EU->NI->GB with zero checks.

    Goods are currently moving from Calais to Dover with no checks.

    It is no different moving goods from Ireland/NI to GB. This 100% a UK WTO related problem.

    There are few if any NIP trade problems that can't be solved in the NIP Joint Committee.

    Lars 😀



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    This is such a red herring. Nothing at all to do with Brexit. If it were, these shortages would be evident for the past two years.

    Ireland is also seeing shortages.

    Very easy for Brexiteers to dismiss any downsides when people point to scenarios that have gaping big holes in their argument.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,070 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    With the price of gas so high fair play to you for keeping yours lighting.

    The vast majority of us go to supermarkets and can see the lack of shortages whereas its all my English friends can talk about.

    Actually went shopping today. Nothing missing but we did have a good giggle about stocking up on turnips.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,444 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I think the UK Govn't line is that they will have addressed all the 7 DUP points and got what they believe are satisfactory solutions. the DUP will not be the judge of that as they are obviously going to say No. Chris HH seems to think they can keep trouble to small numbers in the ERG.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    Why would they be evident for the past 2 years?

    If you massively reduce your resilience to external events, the fact that a collapse doesn't occur for 2 years is not evidence that the collapse has nothing to do with the reduction in your resilience.

    Trump significantly reduced rail safety standards while in office. There was a catastrophic event a few years later. By your logic they could have nothing to do with each other.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    Yeah the DUP later changed their 7 tests to a new test - and also complained that "if we'd known the UK government would try to pass these DUP tests, we'd have picked other ones (strictly they said "we'd have sharpened them).

    I.e. Bad faith Goalpost-movers.

    There was another good point that "either you get the DUP/ERG involved at the start- in which case, they set negotiating demands which are delusional- or you present them with the results of your negotiation, in which case they claim you tried to bounce them in to something".



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭yagan


    Meanwhile on the Costa del Blackpool

    Of the 47 arrests made in Malaga province, three of them were people responsible for the Marbella office of one law firm and two for the firm in Ceuta office. These are accused of crimes of belonging to a criminal organisation, encouraging illegal immigration and forgery of documents. It is alleged there was an average profit of 1,600 euros for each registration.

    Officers analysed more than 200 residency application files of British nationals and found false documents in more than half of them. Most of them had forged documents such as rental contracts, medical insurance policies, bank statements, invoices and others that, in some way, would justify the residency of those affected in Spain, prior to the deadline post Brexit that was in place to register by.

    The cash in hand British economy in Spain must be in freefall.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Do 'Brexiteers' even exist any longer? We are discussing a failed and discredited ideology at this point - I would nearly describe them as former Brexiteers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,827 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I understand that and checks will eventually have to occur. Otherwise there are not going to get any decent trade deal with say the US.

    I think the public know that, however the same checks will need to occur NI->GB eventually. That's where the next drama will occur. That's assuming they manage to negotiate a trade deal with a 3rd country that's actually beneficial to them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,698 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    If Sunak does bow to either the ERG or the DUP he just gives Labour more ammo. They have been hammering that he is weak and if he doesn't stand up to either of them when they have told him they will help him pass any votes on the NIP if he needs it, then surely it means he is done.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,554 ✭✭✭wexfordman2



    It would appear the br exit sunny uplands are in the southeast....of Ireland!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,070 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Must be an unreal change working in a place like that. I've worked in places going the opposite direction but never one where the action keeps doubling.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,384 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    RTE are reporting an announcement of a deal on the NI Protocol is imminent.

    Genealogy Forum Mod



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,961 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Guessing no checks on UK origin goods destined ONLY for NI and vice versa or some fudge like that. How it will work is anyone's guess, big huge "Union Jack UK/NI only" tags or what??

    I see the commentary (excuse) from British Gov is that EU have relented, come around to our way of thinking and are at last compromising. Right to the very end they are exceptional.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,070 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I did hear a few days back that size and placing of stickers was a big conversation happening.

    I wouldn't worry about smuggling anyway. The British have nothing left but Turnips.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Similar stuff on UK sites - I guess Sunak must have gotten the go ahead from the DUP.

    Talk that there will be a brief announcement this evening followed by a comprehensive outline of the plan tomorrow.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    mod: no memes - one post deleted!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,070 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,635 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    I guess the key question is whether Sunak has already got tacit agreement from ERG and or DUP, or whether he believes that he has got a good deal and is willing to put it forward and make them choose. Going against Sunak may well lead to a GE, which nobody in Tory party wants at the moment.

    Although Sunak has been incredibly weak, is this the point where he uses his chips and makes the likes of Baker, Mogg etc choose? I think the line will be that, whatever the particulars, this is a significant improvement on the original NIP, that the only other options are to either keep the NIP as is or to break the entire agreement and the economic chaos that would ensue.

    I think Sunak would have made that very clear to the party. That this is in the corner they have painted themselves into, there is no perfect solution and they need to make it at least look like a win.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,906 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I doubt he has any agreement from DUP or the anti-EU tories. He's just playing it out slowly.

    I believe he is afraid and the whole thing will collapse in on itself once he unveils this great "deal", quite possible his time as PM will come to an end as well. How many is that for the UK now over past few years, my head is spinning...!

    Still believe it is a complete waste of the EUs time, but I suppose we'll see.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    By itself the ERG is not an issue. I think Sunak would be delighted if the only dissenters were the ERG and the DUP.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,635 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    This is my thinking. Would the rest of the party really cause a GE, with the polls they way they are now? My bet is they will do the same as they did with the NIP itself. Get it through on the basis that things can be worked out later.

    This will be soled as a great result by Sunak, and hopefully a bounce for the local elections. NI, and te DUP, will be put on the long finger.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    King Charles going ahead with his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen today, even though he knows it will enrage the ERG, DUP and the right wing tabloids.

    I like his style - it's obvious he has no time at all for any of the Brexit headbangers.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,498 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Of course it's due to Brexit.

    As other posters have pointed out , the reason it didn't happen for the last two years was because the supply chain wasn't put under pressure by bad weather.

    The clarify the current situation

    Is there a reduction in the overall volume of available fruit & veg across Europe due to adverse weather conditions in Spain/Portugal/Morocco?

    Yes there is , but they are available from elsewhere.

    Have the EU countries been able to largely mitigate this impact by shifting supply chains to other sources?

    Yes , they have.

    Have the UK been unable to make these same shifts/adjustment to their supply chain as easily because of the massively increased complexity that Brexit has introduced to the process?

    Yes - Brexit has made it incredibly difficult for both buyers (the shops) and suppliers to be as nimble and flexible as they might have been previously leading to widespread shortages that are not seen elsewhere.

    So , yes - The increased shortages in British shops is absolutely because of Brexit.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    BBC live updates:

    One prominent Brexiteer Conservative MP who has had a briefing texts me: "I am very impressed! If this had been on offer at any time since 2017 I would have been delighted. Shows real determination to find a good way forward for Northern Ireland and the UK. I have some questions, but feel optimistic."

    Downing St obviously working hard to sell it.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,498 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    And also clearly trying to make it sound like it's something new and not basically what has always been on the table since day 1.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,299 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    No 10 now saying it was the King's decision to meet von der Leyen, under no pressure from them - he just deferred to them for approval that it was appropriate. That will really stick in the craw of the DUP



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