To Mask or not to two - Mask Megathread cont.

The height of the curves since we got rid of mask wearing was lower than when we were wearing masks. Look at the peaks post Feb 22. They are lower than Pre 2022.

Now I am not sayimg thats all down ti masks obviously. But what I am saying is that its not like if we dont wear masks or social distance the wave will go on for 12 months instead of 2.

The wave essentially lasts 2 or 3 months regardless of what we have done to mitigate spread of the disease.

I agree about vaccination reducing sickness. I literally said that in my post. Trust me, I am not anti vacc in anyway and had all the jabs.

All I am saying is that if you look at the statistics, the length of the curves during restrictions is no shorter than the length of the curve when we removed restrictions altogether.

I said no such thing.

I think they have trawled for studies a and pulled in studies which are not directly relevant to the mask mandate debate.

It would also have been helpful if they could give specific examples of practicable examples that would address the gaps.

It is very easy to write the below. Not so easy to run an ethical RCT during a pandemic in the real world.

"In summary, more high‐quality RCTs are needed to evaluate the most effective strategies to implement successful physical interventions in practice, both on a small scale and at a population level. It is very unfortunate that more rigorous planning, effort and funding was not provided during the current COVID‐19 pandemic towards high‐quality RCTs of the basic public health measures."

I can't believe that the point you take from the thread is about Airborne vs Fomite transmission.

The point being made is that our response was wholly disproportionate to the risk. Closing schools for months and not allowing people to see their loved ones as they died is not humane and cannot be excused or repeated.

I take that point for the blatantly obvious reason that this is the masks thread rather than discussion of school closures etc. I shouldnt have to point this out to you and any further remarks in that line will be ignored.

I think you are well intended and only out to protect people. I would never criticise your intention and in fact I applaud it.

I think some of the other posters are just pointing out that the whole mask wearing thing really wasnt a panacea and that ultimatley, the govt overreated in its restricitions.

The fact is that the highest infection rate was recorded in Jan 22 at just over 50%, then, in late jan, it started to fall.

we removed all restrictions & infection rate continued to fall. It didnt spike because we all stopped wearing masks and starting going to nightclubs again.

it followed the same trajectory as when we were all locked up at xmas. It continued to fall.

Hospitalisations fell. ICU fell. Deaths fell. By every metric, the impact on society fell.

I think people saw a revelation in that.

If they hadnt already thought it.

The height/impact of the waves was broadly unaffected by masks.

The waves we had post restrictions were smaller in height and duration than they were when we wore masks!

Explain that?

You are attaching too much importance to masks.

ill fitting masks will offer very little protection and even well fitted masks dont stop infection being abosrbed through the eye.

We had peak infection when people work masks. we stopped wearing them. subsequent peaks did not reach the height or infection rate that they did when we were wearing masks.

conclusion = masks have a marginal impact on protection.

No harm in wearing them, but dont hang your hat on them as a protection policy.

Vurus gonna virus. Waves went up and waves went down. What we did inbetween made no tangible didference and if anything, it just spread the infection period rather than reduced it.

Natural post infection immunity + vaccination and the lessening in the mortality of the virus with omicron were the major factors in suppressing Covid I would say.

Omicron was the game changer. Thankfully.

These are peripheral discussions.

My main point is that the height of the wave and its impact was not significantly impacted by restrictions.

Look at the waves and compare their peaks, their infection rate, their hospitisation rate etc.

The waves post restriction were similar to those that occured at the height of restrictions.

Like I said earlier, Jan 22 is the best example. We hit 51% positivity in Jan with omicron and then it began to fall towards the end of jan, to 49%

we dropped restrictions mostly at the end of jan and fully in early march.

if resrrictjons were so influential, we would see a bounce back. the 51% mid jan that fell to 49% end of jan would have gone back up, as we removed restrictions and started licking each others faces!

positivity continued to go down. As did deaths, hospitalisation etc.

The pathway of the wave was materially umaffected by restrictions.

the evidence tells us that.

Today, we have the lowest hospitalusarion rate since Covid had wind in its sails and we havent restricted a single social thing for 12 months.

The height of the waves was not influenced significantly by restrictions or measures.

Thats what I am trying to say.

Waves had the same parabola, regardless of restrictions/measures.

The highest waves occured when we wore masks!

But yes, you are right, if your subject matter is just the fringe effects of restrictions and how they impacted covid overall, we are arguing past each other.

I am saying restrictions didnt have any significant effect on the impact of covid.

And you seem to be focused on which of the inconsequential restrictions was most inconsequential to Covid.

Good talkimg to you though and I know you mean well and have the public's best interest at heart.

The NY Times even go as far as claim that ‘The masks mandates did nothing’:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/21/opinion/do-mask-mandates-work.html

The most recent science suggests that there is no evidence that masks make/made any difference in reducing the spread of respiratory illness. Population-level benefits to mask mandates were apparently zero.

Most of those policies of dealing with covid were not based on real science but on an illusion of science. It was always going to take time for the true scientific consensus to be established. Finally we are getting there at the speed of science, the real science.

Sadly this is the real reason why certain individuals were against all measures, a belief that the restrictions were political somehow, a measure by "tyrannical forces" to control them, etc, etc. Alex Jones stuff.

For what feels like the millionth time on this thread, in response to whatever nonsense you are posting any particular day: Masks have been proven to reduce the risk of transmission if worn properly, do you think reducing the rate of transmission when the health services are at risk is a good thing or a bad thing?

I can't say how effective they are in absolute terms, there are too many variables, but they will reduce the risk of transmission. I would absolutely err on the side of caution in terms wearing a mask if I thought it would help, it is a tiny effort to make.