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General Irish politics discussion thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,998 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    For the countries sake I hope SF find better candidates than the dregs they were forced into using last time, violet anne-wynne as a prime example.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,898 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Finding enough scandal-free warm bodies is going to be a real problem for SF

    The Dublin Airport cap is damaging the economy of Ireland as a whole, and must be scrapped forthwith.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Mod Note

    Off topic posts deleted and one person infracted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,213 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    If Holly Cairns ends up as the new Soc Dems leader then that would be some meteoric rise for her. This time 3 years ago she wasn't even a politician. She got elected in the local elections in May 2019 by a single vote. Then less than a year later she got elected to the Dail after polling 5th in a 3 seater but winning the final seat on transfers. She made the most of it though and has been one of the best performers of the newly elected TDs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,621 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Seems to be a common thing this week, but SF politicians on TV shows are getting their arse handed to them.

    Pearse Doherty got a right roasting on Prime Time the other day, now it's John Brady's turn on The Tonight Show. Refused to answer a question and confused the EU with the UN when it came to troop deployments and just went on and on as if he was a robot.

    It's showing in the poll numbers. SF won't be getting more support and has probably peaked. They are trying to be everything to everyone and many people are copping on to the fact. They refuse to answer the pointed questions on what side they would fall on and take the easy way out. If they want to lead a government, they can only lie their way to the top so many times.

    They will do well in the next Election, but won't come within an arses roar of an overall majority, so will need a few coalition partners and may need to have their hand out to FF of all parties. They will extract a very heavy price and SF supporters will hate the leadership for it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,909 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    We have passed the midpoint of the general election cycle. The questions about what the government are doing wrong slowly turn to what would you do instead as the general election approaches. That poses the biggest challenge to a party like SF who are against everything. Their demands for extra spending on every redress scheme are coming back to haunt them. Varadkar is rightly pointing out that if SF had been in power there would be no money in the kitty for cost-of-living measures. That is hitting home with the public.

    Compensation for long-dead people who paid nursing home charges won't pay the electricity bill for the ordinary Joe Soap.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Robert Troy - further revelations about failure to comply.

    Stephen Donnelly - further revelations about failure to comply

    John McGahon - revelations about his interests

    Sinn Fein - revelations about their failure to comply.

    It is high time that the failure of government to introduce a regulatory body with teeth was called out. Emergency legislation, which can be done if the will is there - is required.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,475 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    may need to have their hand out to FF of all parties. They will extract a very heavy price and SF supporters will hate the leadership for it.

    In that (quite likely) scenario FF as always would be happy just to be on the gravy train and would let SF get on with most of what they want, policy-wise. SF supporters won't be thrilled about a deal with FF but will accept it on a needs-must basis. SF were pleading with FF and FG to talk to them about government formation after the last election, and I don't recall much of a backlash from grassroots over it...



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,909 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Revisionist history strikes again. SF were not pleading with anyone to talk to them after the election, in fact they were called out by other smaller parties for not engaging.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,213 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    As far as I recall SF said something like that they "would talk to anyone". They knew full well that FF & FG wouldn't talk to them but the important thing for them was to be seen to be open to a coalition (so that they couldn't be labelled as a party of protest with no interest in compromise). They even went through the charade of talking to the likes of PBP/SOL even though there was practically zero chance that a left-wing government could be formed on the numbers that they had.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,475 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf



    Now I'm sure this is right

    but the specific point I was addressing was about SF grassroots and their supposed massive ingrained resistance to any deal with FF.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    As I recall, SF said they would talk to anyone but didn't actually bother trying to talk to anyone. They made no serious effort to form a "left wing" coalition - their endgoal was always to be the main opposition.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,213 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I'm sure that absolutely was their goal but the numbers were never there for a left-wing coalition.

    Even if you added SF (37), Greens (12), LAB (6) and Soc Dems (6) that'd only get you to 61, 19 short of a majority.

    Even by some miracle you managed to get PBP/SOL and the few random left-wing independents to join you wouldn't get anywhere near 80.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Oh I agree. But I don't think they made any friends in some of the left wing groups by not even bothering to make a token effort.

    I think if, in the initial votes for Taoiseach, McDonald had been getting 60 votes against 35 for the other two it would have made a better picture for them also.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I don't think they are ever going to enter a coalition where they are cannonfodder as minor coalition parties here have been. Even if they are accussed of not wanting power.

    Can't blame them really when you remember the carnage reeked on the minor coalition parties with FF and FG



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,909 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It would have put huge pressure on FF or FG to facilitate a confidence and supply arrangement for a SF-led left-wing government, but SF never wanted that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,435 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    SF wants to eat the parties on the left not accommodate them. SF's possibly preferred deal is to lead a SF/FF coalition.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,621 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Yea, but the whole SF thing is about 'NEW' politics. They go on and on about how FG and FG ruined the country and are the fault for everything. Many of their voters lap it up, sure we see the rhetoric on this site about FFG and power swaps and all that rubbish.

    How then can SF turn around after the election and go into government with FF of all parties???

    Many of their new voters will hate them for it straight away.

    SF are screwed no matter what tbh, because they have built up some huge expectations among some of the more naive of their electorate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,621 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Correct.

    SF did everything it could to waste time after the election, as they were happy to let FF and FG trash something out with the Greens.

    Sure it took them about 2 months to send a letter to PBP to even ask the question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 122 ✭✭Stranger Things


    What you guys think of Aontu, Joint 4th biggest party with 4% according to opinion polls lately, don’t seem to get much press compared to the likes of the greens and labour who are at that level . Listened to Peadar Tóibín a few times and seemed a smart fella



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,610 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    He's a TD in my consituency now. Shinner economics with a side of some Renua social policies.

    Putting it kindly, I'll leave it as he's not my cup of tea.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Agree, strong speaker but far too conservative for me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,475 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Yeah but most recent IT poll had them on <1, which I presume is the polite way of saying 0. They're a one-man band, zero chance of any other seats. As I was saying in the CA forum, the poll ratings of the smaller left parties seems to bounce around between 0 and 5% with little apparent connection to how things are going for them in the 'real world' or how they are likely to do in a general election.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,435 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The Rural Independents would be in the same pool as Aontu. It's they make it difficult for Aontu to expand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Holly Cairns to be new leader of SD's. Unopposed in her bid.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Aontú are going to go the same way as Renua. Complete waste of space.

    They'll go into power with FF the same way FG did tbh. Then hope that 5 years is enough time to accomplish enough that their voters forget/forgive them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,936 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    All opinion polls have a margin of error. Depending on the size of the margin the numbers for parties that have percentages in and around that margin of error are a bit meaningless. You'd expect that relatively small parties figures would bounce around between 0 and the margin of error. That's probably what you are seeing with Aountu and the smaller left wing parties. Statistical noise. All you can really say is that their share of the vote is small but also big enough to register in a national poll. Not every political party is big enough to feature in a national opinion poll.

    For bigger parties polls are a bit more meaningful but even then you bear in mind the context and limitations of any opinion poll.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,213 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Calling Aontu the 4th biggest party is the very definition of cherry picking data. There have been 7 polls published in 2023. In only one did they reach that 4% value and even then so did the Greens, Labour and Soc Dems. In the two most recent polls they polled 1% & 2%. They have only 1 TD and 3 councillors. That puts them a long way behind the Greens, Labour, Soc Dems and PBP/SOL and level with I4C in 8th place.

    That aside, I thought that Peadar Toibin spoke well when he was on the Irish Time Inside politics podcast a few weeks ago. The fundamental problem with them though is that they're a bit all over the place with their issues. From the right-wing side they're pro-life and seem to be the only party asking questions about how sustainable the current immigration policy is. A lot of their economic policies seem to be left-wing. So while people on this site are always crying out for a party that is left-wing on social issues and right-wing on economics, Aontu seems to be occupying the polar opposite spot on the political compass. A lot of their supporters online seem to be conspiracy theory adjacent so I'd be curious to know what's going on in the local level. I think, much like Renua a few years ago, they are at a cross-roads and they need to decide what kind of party they want to be and who they want to have as their members.



  • Registered Users Posts: 39,938 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I agree they wouldn’t but how are SF if they do get into government as the major party going to sell to a junior party that what has happened to others won’t happen again ?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,298 ✭✭✭✭retalivity




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