Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

^^^

I meant they'd have actually have to be back in Stormont to vote...

There's a great episode of South Park where the head of the US Catholic League pushes an extreme vision of Catholicism that nobody can possibly conform to, to the extent that the Pope and even Jesus himself are declared to be heretics.

I've lost count of the number of times Brexit has reminded me of this, as the "great" British institutions that the EU was apparently holding back have one by one become insufficiently British in the eyes of Brexiters; the Judiciary, the House of Commons, and now even the King are all working to undermine Britain.

It says if the UK and EU both agree so surely the EU have to just not agree.

The DUP remind me of the various Hibernian groups in America. Their version of "the homeland" doesn't exist and they are massively out of touch with the reality of the country they "adore"

It says it can only be applied if they both agree. If the above text is correct it is in fact a veto for the UK government for new EU laws across NI.

Doesn't the EU Parliament or commission get a vote, though? Could another country (e.g., ROI) decide to vote against the changes?

Reading the 1st link posted by Water John above, seems like UK goods will be monitored but it's vague and handwavy - no green/red lane (that I saw,) something about trusted traders - how does one become one, though?

It seems like there's still slogging yet ahead to make this 'real.' And the command paper...well, it talks about sausage. That's nice, but also says things about 'dropping 1700 pages of EU regulation' and replacing them with, my guess ,mostly nonexistent UK regulations.

Plus the command paper was based on seemingly false premises - NI's economy is doing o.k., livelihoods are adjusting. Why change anything? Sausage shortages?

Rte reporting it would need cross community majority agreement.

It's a concession by the EU but they get a lot out if it without losing much.

Not saying there couldn't theoretically be cross community majority against a random new EU law but its fairly unlikely and gets the assembly back up and running.

And in the unlikely event of the above I'm sure the ramifications in further text is heavily weighted in favour of the EU/SM.

ECJ remains sole arbitrar of EU law in NI. So fairly redundant piece of text but cunning as fcuk. Gotta say well played Brussels.

From the reporting it seems only the EU has conceded ground to get this over the line. Looks like a lot of stuff like green lanes and trusted traders, once said to be impossible are now possible.

The devil will be in the implementation and it still retains the ability to become a manufactured crisis at any point.

Exactly. Point 66 makes this abundantly clear:

The UK always had, and always will have, the ability to not follow any rule they don't want to follow. They're sovereign, and always have been, so there's no change there really.

This particular clause is just crystalizing that were such a course of action to be followed, the logical consequences of that will also be followed. If you don't follow the rules, you lose the benefits those rules would nominally provide. If you don't abide by single market rules, your access to the single market is restricted.

This all goes beyond NI. The likes of Sunak knows that Brexit is a failure. The FTAs with the US etc. simply never materialised and the UK economy is in a bad way and is getting worse. The secret meeting a couple of weeks back and the chumminess with the EU today shows the new direction of travel: Back to the EU fold in baby steps. This is the first (if you exclude the cooperation over Ukraine) step of many that will see the whole UK more closely align with the EU to limit the damage being done by Brexit. The UK will rejoin the SM and probably CU in my lifetime. I am quite confident of that.

All the commentary seems to be on "break" but that only applies to new rules being introduced. Does NI (and likely the rest of the UK to avoid a hardening of the Irish Sea border) have to stay aligned to existing EU rules to not be in breach of the Protocol?

Is the UK giving up one of the supposed great benefits of Brexit (the ability to set their own standards) while everyone is focusing on something else?

Yes. The UK Government knew all along and finally the more realistic Sunak administration is acknowledging, that the UK would always have to mirror EU standards anyway.

50% of everything UK Inc makes and does is bought by the EU. Not mirroring the standards could utterly devastate the British economy in terms of the markets that would be closed off.

So now, that provides certainty for British industry. Its one of a couple of very big wins for the UK in this Framework. They've done very well out of it.

And by the way, its a 'Stormont Brake', not Stormont break. The distinction being that the NI Assembly can halt and refer any process that it believes exceeds the Framework and makes EU conditions preeminent.

But considering the 'Brake' needs two parties and an overall majority, I don't think it will ever be triggered, with a big Nationalist/Alliance majority such as there is.

And in that way, its a big win for the EU and particularly Irish Nationalists, because it puts the will of the people of the Six Counties front and centre.

So really, by demanding the correction of a perceived 'democratic deficit', the DUP have f***ed themselves. Maybe forever.

I think that calls for a wee dram and a toast to Wilson, Paisley, Foster et al. May your myopia never end.

And the "very big wins for the UK in this Framework" are things the UK could have had all along, they didn't need to screw their economy and antagonise their friends for the last couple of years to get them! That it puts major pressure on the DUP to return to power sharing, under a Nationalist FM no less, is a very sweet cherry on top.

It will be interesting to see how the usual suspects spin this as EU capitulating when they are getting more than they expected by the DUP being put firmly back in their box.

Did you read it FFS?

Any objection will need to get through both UK gov and EU also.

It will never be triggered given Alliance and SF numbers. That's even before the whole cross community aspect is addressed (although this part seems more unclear).

Its all a game now to claim a win, I say let the Unionists think they've won the day.

So sounds like a fudge after all with no Plan B.... The 'Brake' is a lot of handwaving over here to distract that it's toothless and only to get DUP back into Gov.

But looks like all the early DUP comments out the door are signalling a 'No'....

Conservative MP Sir Julian Lewis said in the Commons: “It sounds as if the reserve plan here is the Stormont brake, but… that might not apply if for any reason Stormont was not sitting.

“So is the Prime Minister satisfied that there is a plan B that would work under all circumstances?”

Sunak replies: “This is incredibly important, because what we should be focused on is Stormont being up and runni ng.”