Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Exactly. Good economic performance also drives net immigration levels. Australia especially has had postive levels of immigration for 40+ years (excluding the covid years), meaning sustained population growth which in turn is the fundamental driver of housing demand (over the long term).

There is no denying that some do, but I doubt that “record numbers” which are enough to move the market are a certainty, which is what the poster is saying will happen based on his/her assessment.

What does your instinct tell you what Irish banks will do, especially since 2 major competitors have left the stage

Supply is dreadful and some in demand properties (refurbished 3bed houses on luas/dart in safe areas) are seeing crazy bidding wars

Ironically, co-living would have been great for people like that - but we outlawed it as our TDs don't understand that you need different property types to serve different cohorts in a functional market.

Instead, 3 bedroom two story houses for all! Let the sprawl continue!

co-living was a sham

what is it the point you’re trying to make and how is a S&P chart with no timeline relevant. If I selected different dates or a longer/shorter period I could find a chart to back up whatever point I wanted to make.

Are you trying to suggest that people try and time the market to buy houses in the “smart money” phase?

Best of luck with that because Unfortunately the majority of people will time this wrong just like they do on the stock market and this has been proven time and time again. How many people invested their deposit for a property in bitcoin and ”growth stocks” that have been burned by trying to be “smart money”

there are two things that move markets fear and greed and at the moment the fear is not that house prices will drop because of a load of supply hitting the market or that people will sell there house because they are paying so much extra on their mortgage because people have to live somewhere where it’s in a rented property or owned…. The fear that exists at present is that it’s going to cost so much extra paying crazy rent for a place that I could be kicked out of at anytime.

The greed will stop people selling for less than they think their property is worth. anyone renting that is in a position to buy will still buy because it’s cheaper than renting and they have security of a roof over their head.

FTB’s that have been living at home saving to buy will do what they have always done and put off buying because the can’t find their ideal home for a price that they want to pay and are not forced to pay crazy rents and know they won’t be made homeless in the morning. They will put off buying because of the fear of getting the timing wrong and 99% of the time will pay more in the long run.

All that happens in the current climate is the market stagnates with less houses coming to the market for sale and people putting of buying if they are in a position where they are lucky enough to be paying way below market rents.

at the same time we have a big slowdown in the number of commencements of new builds because of the uncertainty of costs which means for the next 2/3 years we will have a lower number of new builds hitting the market making the situation worse.

so unless our net migration turns negative and more people leave Ireland than come to Ireland the situation is not going to change anytime soon.

Headline: "Is a frozen market worse than a house price crash" https://www.ft.com/content/07e005bb-d115-4a26-842f-74c1f9133a2d

Interesting piece which echoes similar sentiments in here

Fully agree with you on everything you said.

With 4% ECB rates should we be expecting 6% ish mortgage rates in Ireland? Obviously once a sufficient number of trackers have been flushed from the system.

So the banks have the choice to:

A. Burn down their capitalisation in order to subsidise mortgage holders

or

B. Raise their rates because there's only a few banks and everyone hates them anyway.

Oh I'm sure that the state has a grift ready for that, based on recent news :). I'd say more, but I'd get in trouble.....

Problem is that many CRE's simply are unsuitable for conversion short of a full demolition and rebuild and then the numbers probably make it moot. Just something that is going to have to be lived with..

as the age of first time buyers and those who are unfortunately separated/divorced here increases, does anyone know if there are banks or institutions here lending with loans extending beyond 70 years of age to first time buyers e.g. 46-48 years of age with reasonable pension prospects ..