Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Is this deal negative at all for the ROI? If not, I don't think we need complain. Let the brexiteers take the win, there are a lot more pressing countries in both ireland and the UK.

Sure, but they’re approval is needed to get Stormont up and running so all of this can actually be put into practice and we can look to move on.

The (London) Times reports the brake as follows

"3 — Give the people of Northern Ireland a say in making the laws that governs them

The problem: One of the most difficult issues with the current protocol is that Northern Ireland must follow not only existing EU single market rules but also ones made in future. Northern Ireland is not a member of the EU and has no say in making those rules — and no ability to veto them.

How does Sunak’s deal address this? The Windsor framework goes further in this area than expected. There will be a so-called Stormont brake that will allow 30 members of the Northern Ireland assembly (from two parties) to submit a “petition of concern”. This would block an EU law from coming into force in Northern Ireland. Under the make-up of Stormont, the DUP would need the support of another unionist party to take such a step.

It is not a complete veto. The UK government would have to support the veto — and if the European Commission objected the dispute would have to go through an independent binding arbitration process.

Is it enough? This was Sunak’s rabbit in the hat. It deals with deep-seated unionist concerns that Northern Ireland could become isolated from the UK in terms of rules and regulations. The DUP will have concerns about whether a Labour government would back it."

So the steps to raise a concern is sort of known. 30 Unionist MLA's can raise a petition of concern on new EU laws that would affect NI.

But lets take a look at what happens then. Firstly the new law must have a "significant impact" for the petition of concern to have any effect. Then as per your diagram it goes to the joint EU-UK committee to discuss it while a brake is applied. The EU during this stage will take appropriate action as there is now a hole in the single market. This could mean more checks for goods that have not had any going into NI because the single market needs to be protected and the infrastructure is already built, to check goods going into Ireland.

This is the infrastructure that was not built that led to the current NIP being a mess. So at the EU-UK joint committee stage if they agree with the DUP position it will mean going back to where things weren't working and trade being disrupted into NI from the UK. Or they do not agree with the DUP position at this stage and the brake is removed and the new law applies. As Ian Dunt mentions this same agreement seems to be in place between Norway and the EU,

In return for this Stormont has to be up and running for a petition of concern to be brought forward. So Sinn Fein First Minister. Then trade infrastructure is built as per the protocol Johnson agreed and real time data is shared with the EU. New laws from the EU will apply to NI unless the UK government of the day agree with the Unionist position. At the moment it seems like a more sensible Tory party is in charge and in future it could well be Labour, who will not make things worse on the trade front.

And as a safeguard the EU can still apply remedial action if the UK goes ahead with this. So sure, give 30 Unionist MLA's the chance to shout about new laws. I doubt there shouting ever gets them anything. They have been snookered by Sunak and the EU in this.

No I don’t think it is incorrect. Ultimately the Windsor framework needs to be compatible with the GFA and power sharing arrangements currently in place(it specifically is called out within the document that the framework that this process is without prejudice to the current arrangements).

The Stormont brake allows for concerns to be raised but it does not allow for unionists to block laws coming in outside of the normal processes of the assembly.

A Petition of concern requires cross community support.

We're back to people claiming the GFA has been rewritten.

Let's be fair. The UK agreeing to something is no evidence that they like or agree to a deal. Let's see if Sunak can make a deal with the EU and keep his job which both Boris and May failed at.

Absolutely - but I am optimistic that this gets implemented. On the face of it it’s been a for more productive discussion with both sides looking for a implementable solution rather than being purely about political points.

RTE are reporting it the same way.

Its still unlclear, but I think it will have to go through an assembly vote before going to EU talks or the Windsor framework would supersede current power sharing agreements when it comes to EU trade law, and the document calls out that it does not prejudice the current arrangements.

What the above would stop is the DUP attempting to block any law on an ideological basis alone-but if they genuinely believe that a new EU law relating to trade would be detrimental to the people of NI then there is a mechanism to block it.

Irish Times also reporting it as needing cross community support.

It can only delay stuff anyway as the UK/EU joint body get the final say.

If theres anything thats going to scupper this as being a success its the complete confusion over how the brake is applied that really should have been explained plainly and concisely exactly how it works which has yet to happen.

It won't scupper the deal because the people who have the power to OK the dead don't give a single sht about the brake or the DUP.

Its not clear at all, your constant insistance wont change that.