Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Centre for the Union who's Chairman is Paisley Jr and counts wee Seamie Bryson as it's NI policy director have..............wait for it..........undertaken an in depth review of the Windsor Framework including a review by a former NI Attorney General SC and hard as it is to believe they don't like it and don't think any unionist should accept it as a basis for returning to Stormont - https://www.centrefortheunion.co.uk/post/windsor-framework-legal-advice

The only real significance this has is that with Jr as Chair of the group it puts a lot of pressure on Donaldson to not accept the Windsor Framework as a win and enough to return to Stormont.

Once again the headbangers are turning in on themselves.

It's clear to all that getting closer to, or back into, the Single Market is in the UK's best interests.

But there's no political advantage to Starmer to be the first political leader to say that out loud. The people who recognise that the UK's best interests lie in greater alignment with the SM are already more inclined to vote Labour than Tory, so he wouldn't pick up many votes by doing this, and he might lose some. Also, picking up more votes is not his immediate priority; he's already cruising to a massive victory. His priority is not doing anything that might derail the trajectory Labour is currently on.

So, incredibly, it may in fact be the Tories who are the first to pivot on this. As public opinion on this question shifts, the Tories have more to gain by following it than Labour do. Plus, with Russian funding having almost certainly dried up and the psycho right-wing not being the force it once was, the Tories will once again need to court their traditional supporters in the business community and they, too, will want a more pro-SM stance.

But when the great pivot comes Labour will not allow the Tories to upon up a gap on this issue. When the Tories start expressing an interest in greater alignment with the SM, Starmer will be doing the same about a nanosecond later.

@Peregrinus wrote "But when the great pivot comes Labour will not allow the Tories to upon up a gap on this issue. When the Tories start expressing an interest in greater alignment with the SM, Starmer will be doing the same about a nanosecond later."

But do you not see that as a very risky strategy by Starmer? It is possible that the Tories will open up a considerable gap before Labour can even attempt to close it. And get all the shadow cabinet doing a 180 degree turn at the same time. (* see Rachel Reeves on C4 news last night wed 1st)

I feel that the Tories are more likely to forge closer links to the EU , but only because Labour have so far decided to make Brexit work. I fear they will continue along that line when everyone else in Britain has long since moved on.

Most importantly though, this is a huge political failure of Starmer. Any politician who has an ambition to lead his country need to put the needs of the country first and foremost and be consistent in arguing for what is right. Trying to follow public opinion and leading from the back might make Starmer a PM one day: but it will not make him a leader.

At least right now, Sunak has 'opened up a gap' over Starmer , as suggested in this Guardian article.

It will be interesting to see if Starmer follows a nanosecond later . I somehow doubt it because I think he is too cautious.

( * Rachel Reeves , Labour shadow cabinet, on C4 news last night ,said she doesn't believe the people have changed their minds on Brexit, at least in her constituency. )

No, I don't think it's a risky strategy for Starmer. Or, perhaps I should say, I think pivoting now would be more risky strategy for him.

There's two conflicting impulses at work in the GB electorate.

1. They are disappointed by Brexit. But . . .
2. They are heartily sick of the Brexit Wars.

If Starmer pivots now, and suggests that he wishes to reopen the question of the UK's relationship with the EU, the Tory right will immediately start howling like demented baboons, and the public will think, "oh f*ck, here we go again, another seven years of this shlte". Even people who want things to improve will also blame him for reopening old wounds, dragging it all up again, etc.

So, no, the pressure is on the Tories to move first, for reasons already mentioned, and there's no reason why Starmer would.

I take your point about the failure of leadership in the national interest, but that's perhaps a structural problem in UK politics more than a personal failing of Starmer's. The whole Brexit saga has been an exemplar of this problem. It would be nice to think that Starmer was immune from it but, when you think about it, why would he be?

The boring truth is that Brexitry has lost traction in the UK, even in the Tory party. The ERG is a shadow of its former self, and Sunak will succeed in getting his Windsor Framework through the party and through Parliament because even those on the Tory right who don't like it recognise that the public won't tolerate another leadership heave on the issue. But the same consideration that prevents them from being the ones who restart the Brexit wars prevents Starmer from restarting them.

Hard Brexit won't be stunningly reversed in a giant leap; it will be chipped away and quietly dismantled over a period of time. As to whether the UK will ever formally rejoin the EU, or re-enter the Single Market as a full participant — probably, but will be a new political generation* that brings that about

(* A political generation is seven, maybe ten, years. So not that far off. But neither Sunak nor Starmer will be leaders of their respective parties by then.)

Boris giving a rambling speech today. Doesn't think he can vote for the Windsor Agreement.

That's easy, all he has to do is stay away from the HOC as he's done for the last six months.

One lesson we've got is that Sunak is getting favourable press for repackaging the NIP, so a repackaged single market access is a possibly. As long as this new deal is presented as better than EU membership then the UK doesn't feel it will lose face. But rejoining as a member is definitely not a possibility.

They've used Windsor already, so I guess they'll have to called something like the Buckingham Package or something.

I've seen some people speculate that Sunak is / was a very unusual type of Brexiteer. The vast majority are right wing English nationalists who hate Europe and the EU, but he seems to have come at it from purely non ideological reasons. The same people are even wondering if he is still a Brexiteer at all or if he would be fine with single market alignment.

NI's supposed fee for SM membership would probably be small enough anyway, given the small size of the territory...perhaps only £250m or something.

Other big differences - bigger differences, in fact:

NI is in the single market for goods only, not for services.

NI is not in the single market for freedom of movement.

Remainer voices in the UK ask why Sunak doesn't press for NI's wonderful deal to be extended to GB as well. The answer is that's it not on offer to GB, and won't be on offer to GB — EU has said explicitly, from the outset, that this deal is unique to the circumstances of NI. Other considerations aside, Sunak wouldn't want to burn political capital by asking for something he can't possible get, and then failing to get it.

There has been much talk of the special economic zone for NI due to this and how the rest of the UK has essentially lost out, but what about Ireland?

Why would a US company invest in Ireland rather than NI given NI have better access to GB that ROI company, while having the same access to EU?